An antidote to overconfidence and underestimation
One day before an important university exam for a subject that was seemingly very easy, I suggested to my classmate that we should go through the previous tests we had had in class.
I went on to say that I wasn’t feeling confident enough that I would be able to answer the questions if they were repeated in the exam. But he was quick to interject: “Aagh! Those tests were very easy … I have mastered them; I don’t need to go through them again.” So, I embarked on a solo mission to review the test questions.
Fast-forward to some hours later, we had come out of the exam, where more than fifty percent of the questions were from the previous tests. A quick glance at my friend in the examination room said it all: he was struggling!
In fact, he was among those who took the longest time to finish the exam, and he was not impressed by his own results!
This example relates to what many studies have found about overconfidence and underestimation: that easy tasks tend to produce more underestimation than difficult tasks.
However, without being cognizant of these biases, which are perhaps only natural to us as human beings, a lot can be at stake including performance in personal, education and career lives.
I picked a particularly useful tip from the book ‘Thinking in Bets’ by Annie Duke, which can help avoid/escape this underestimation-cum-overconfidence trap.
The power of ‘are you sure?’
Research suggests that people are often too sure that they have the correct information. However, in order to avoid being trapped in being too sure and in turn sabotaging our own outcomes, it is important to keep confidence in check. In the book, the author emphasizes the simple fact that life - like a poker game - is full of uncertainties.
Similar actions can produce different results; and similar results can be achieved by different actions.
As such, the simple question ‘are you sure?’ can be a powerful trigger to get ourselves and our conversation-mates to take that necessary step back, and wonder ‘Hmmm … Am I sure about what I am claiming?’
This does not mean that we always have to be sure of the claims we make. Rather, it enables us to appreciate and acknowledge the tentativeness of our claims when necessary, opening up room for learning and growing.
Had I had this knowledge at the time of my encounter with my classmate, perhaps it could have helped him realize that his response was merely based on overconfidence and underestimation. Perhaps he would ask himself: ‘Am I sure?”’
Perhaps the answer could have been no… And, perhaps, he would have decided to do the right thing – to learn some more.
Under how many other circumstances can this be useful? The answer is: many. ‘Are you sure?’ can indeed be adopted in everyday life, just to challenge ourselves to scratch the surface a little bit more; seek the truth - and discover that we may be blinded by ungrounded overconfidence. Surely, overconfidence and under-confidence are two ends of a continuum - and in-between are different levels of confidence.
While different situations will warrant different levels of confidence, striking the right balance can only be possible if we take our biases by their horns and keep them in control - consciously working around them so that they don’t stop us from achieving the outcomes we desire.
So, the next time you are in disagreement with someone, ask them: “are you sure...?”
___________________________________
Epiphania Kimaro writes about careers, leadership, and issues affecting youth and women
