OPINION: Polls fatigue in shadow of 2015

Before the current wave of defections started; leading to the ongoing by-elections in many wards and parliamentary constituencies, by-elections though common, were mainly a result of death. These days, with a predicted disaster for opposition parties come 2020, those grabbing life boats are causing us all these headaches and a huge financial burden each time they jump into the water.

With opposition politicians crying foul plays, even before the verdicts were out in both constituencies; the recently concluded parliamentary by-elections in Ukonga and Monduli constituencies had the same predicted outcomes but the implications are different both in the short term and the long term.

CCM’s Humphrey Polepole alleged irregularities by Chadema’s parliamentary candidate in Ukonga constituency but hardly anyone will take him seriously..

A small price to pay for being the longtime incumbent.

No one expects CCM to lose a parliamentary by-election. When that happens, it will be news.

The long ruling party is in no mood to share, doing everything possible to project an image of power, influence with voters and competency of how the governments it forms have performed since 2015.

Of the two constituencies, Monduli attracted more interest for the obvious reasons.

Edward Lowassa was not on the ballot paper in Monduli but that by-election was more about him than the two leading candidates.

The majority of those who camped in Monduli to campaign for CCM’s candidate could not complete their task without spending some time addressing the elephant in the constituency. Telling voters that, the most famous prodigal son was on his way home.

His denials were irrelevant to them.

In retaking the constituency there are other political dynamics as well at play.

The picture projected to the rest of us is that Lowassa’s influence over local politics is waning. CCM’s candidate, who was Chadema’s candidate back in 2015 for the same constituency won, again, his old parliamentary seat with nearly twice the amount of votes he received in 2015.

This time around the votes he received are more than the total combined votes received by parliamentary candidates in that constituency in 2015.

In this country, politics is governed by many things including the social dynamics of a particular area. In rural or semi-rural constituencies like Monduli, elders are factored in when political decisions are made because they have moral authority over youths in their areas.

This dynamic was exploited well by politicians as accusations flew around as to why Monduli voters had to head to the polls again to fill a parliamentary seat with the menu being more or less the same.

It is an open secret that he continues to harbor political ambitions for the top political job. However, there are other names being thrown around in the opposition that they should be nominated come 2020. At the very least, retaining that constituency would have given him more political clout to dictate the process when the time comes but as things stand, those looking to other candidates have more reasons now to present their alternatives.

For more than two decades, Lowassa has loomed large over our politics, dominated them and came to be a kingmaker. Retaining Monduli constituency would have gone a long way to assure him the same role come 2020, if his name is not on the ballot paper.

However, now that the constituency is lost, that reality is such that the room will be crowded when the time comes.

With a country that is fatigued with the frequency of by-elections caused by deliberate, cold political calculations of politicians, these by-elections where are hardly the accurate political barometer. One side has unmatched resources while the other, apart from the ongoing political infighting of allies and rumbling noises from within, there are many ongoing legal woes for their political leadership.

With each passing by-election, and the reality of an impending doom for the opposition becomes clearer. This tide has to pass for the country to move forward, as things stand we are still working out 2015.