South Sudan Chief Mediator Lazarus Sumbeiywo during the signing of a declaration of commitment to the Tumaini (Hope) initiative for the South Sudan peace process at Ole Sereni Hotel in Nairobi on May 16, 2024.
The parties to the South Sudan High-Level Mediation in Nairobi, often referred to as the holdout groups, are expected to sign the final agreement in November following the completion of nine protocols on key agenda items.
The revelations from the mediation team signal a revival of the final stages of the talks, which had appeared to be suspended for the past two months after the government delegation went to Juba for consultations.
In an interview with The EastAfrican, the chief mediator, Lieutenant General (Rtd) Lazarus Sumbeiywo, said negotiations on all but one of the protocols had been completed, indicating that the one on power-sharing was still unfinished. The mediator said the remaining part should be completed in the next week.
“There should be no cause for alarm because, in many mediations, delegates are allowed to go back to consult with their members.
“The Transitional Government of National Unity is made up of five parties that are represented in Tumaini, so it is natural for them to brief their members on what they have achieved,” said Lt-Gen Sumbeiywo.
Sumbeiywo, who helped mediate South Sudan's path to secession from Sudan, is leading talks between President Salva Kiir's coalition government, known as the Transitional Government of National Unity (TGoNU), and groups that initially refused to sign the 2018 peace deal that established the TGoNU. The talks are formally known as the Tumaini Initiative.
Members of the South Sudan Opposition Movements Alliance (SSOMA) involved in the talks had expressed concern that the government delegation was taking too long in Juba, amid reports that some elements in the government and security sector were opposed to the Tumaini Initiative and were trying to derail it.
Some sources told The EastAfrican that the TGoNU had been wrangling over whether to allow the holdout groups into the coalition government, with some senior government officials concerned that this could dilute their relevance.
The EastAfrican also learnt that some senior security officials were particularly opposed to the deal. Last week, President Kiir fired the head of the National Security Services (NSS), Gen Akol Koor Kuc, and appointed him as a state governor. It was unclear whether Gen Kuc was among those opposed to the deal, but President Kiir did not give any reason for his dismissal.
Dr Riek Machar, a member of the TGoNU and leader of the SPLM-IO, had publicly opposed the Tumaini Initiative because some of the protocols would undermine the principles of the 2018 peace agreement, formally known as the Resolution of the Conflict in the Republic of South Sudan (R-ARCSS), brokered by the regional bloc Intergovernmental Authority on Development (Igad).
The nine protocols include: Confidence Building Measures; Communal Violence and Land Issues; Justice Sector Reforms, Transitional Justice and Accountability; Security Sector Reforms; Permanent Constitutional Process; Economic Recovery; Humanitarian Access and Support; and Responsibility Sharing.
SSOMA, on the other hand, believes that the nine protocols are the only way to save the country from perpetual conflict and accuses the TGoNU of abandoning them in Nairobi.
Patrick Godi, the youth representative of the Tumaini Initiative, says that while there are problems with the protocols on economic recovery, judicial reform and security sector reform, they are being discussed in Juba and will soon be resolved.
Pagan Amum, the leader of the Real SPLM, another group at the talks, insisted that the talks had not yet collapsed.
“The government has not yet returned to the table. We are patiently waiting for them,” he said.
While the Tumaini Initiative represents a valuable opportunity for consensus-building and political reconciliation, its legitimacy could be compromised if it is seen as a stand-alone mechanism, disconnected from the broader peace process, says a briefing released on September 30 by the Durban-based African Centre for the Constructive Resolution of Disputes (ACCORD).
“Furthermore, if integrated into the extended R-ARCSS and the Roadmap, it risks being perceived as yet another iteration of the status quo, which has repeatedly failed to address the underlying causes of South Sudan’s conflict,” the ACCORD briefing said.
Mogga Loyo, a South Sudanese political analyst, said that people hope that the Tumaini Initiative will not only focus on interest groups, but will involve citizens in every step of the negotiations.
South Sudan’s TGNoU postponed elections scheduled for December this year and extended its mandate by another 24 months. While some officials agreed that the country was not prepared for the polls, donors were critical of the extension and warned that they could pull the plug on funding.
