The battle for the soul of CUF: Seif vs Lipumba

Dar es Salaam. In Pemba, they have a saying in their strong Kiswahili dialect that: Sefu n’Kafu na n’Kafu n’Sefu. Literally translated, it means ‘Seif is CUF and CUF is Seif’. The subject here is none other Seif Sharif Hamad, the serial Zanzibari presidential candidate and secretary-general of opposition Civic United Front (CUF).

The opposition leader, who is more popularly known as Maalim Seif, is aware of that statement, and the fact that he is hero worshipped. Last May, in his first buildup public meeting ahead of election primaries, he told Chakechake residents in Pemba that although they say he is CUF, he was them, the supporters and backbone of the party.

Short and simple, the saying is loaded. It says it all, especially now – in the wake of the controversial bid to reclaim chairmanship of the party by beleaguered Prof Ibrahim Lipumba. The learned professor quit his post last year, just before the General Election, pledging to continue serving the party as an ordinary member.

He wants back in. He has lost round one of his bid, but not before sparking a nasty power struggle within CUF. They say the battle has always been there – possibly behind the scenes – but this time round it took shape in June when Prof Lipumba made a U-turn.

Last month, the battle reached its climax at the party’s extraordinary national congress that had been called to elect his successor. Although he is not a delegate, Prof Lipumba dramatically forced his way in to the meeting. That did not help to stop the majority of delegates to vote in confirmation of his resignation. As expected, his supporters were angry. Chaos ensued. The meeting ended prematurely.

A fortnight later, the CUF Supreme Governing Body resolved to temporarily suspend Prof Lipumba from the partly, alongside 10 other members, including Members of Parliament Magdlena Sakaya (Kaliua Constituency, Tabora) and Maftaha Nachuma (Mtwara Urban).

Former MP Mohamed Habib Mnyaa was also suspended as the whip was cracked to restore order in a party that had seen nothing much but chaos and misfortune since the controversial poll re-run in Zanzibar.

Prof Lipumba has dismissed his expulsion from the party. And after the postponement of the party’s congress last week, he ventured out on a media blitz to defend his decisions. Not only that.

The professor has also not spared Maalim Seif. He accuses the CUF secretary general of weakening the party in the Mainland. He claims the decision to revoke his resignation is motivated by his desire to salvage the party in the Mainland.

His supporters would rather have the man whose cancellation of election results last year ushered the Isles to brink of chaos – Bora Jecha kuliko Maalim Seif they chanted at the congress. Mr Jecha Salim Jecha is the chairman of the Zanzibar Electoral Commission (ZEC) who, ironically, stands accused of stealing CUF’s victory in the 2015 General Election.

So deep are the divisions within CUF pitting the two leaders that a group of supporters would rather have their common foe.

However, the big question here is what really went wrong between the two leaders, who in the last two decades of multiparty politics in the country, were seen as the real force of CUF?

They were once a united front fighting from one side. Anyone who dared cross their path would be ruthlessly shown exit door.

Prof Abdalla Safari tried unsuccessfully a number of times to topple Prof Lipumba as CUF chair. At the end he had to decamp to Chadema, where he is currently serving as the party’s national vice chairman.

In Zanzibar, Mr Hamad Rashid Mohammed, a longtime ally of the CUF secretary general, once made clear his intention to challenge Mr Hamad to represent the party in the Isles’ presidential race. He couldn’t go far. The man was expelled from the party on misconduct charges.

Prof Lipumba and Mr Hamad started together as CUF flagbearers in the first General Election of 1995. The professor was running for the Union presidency while his colleague set his eyes on the Zanzibari highest office. That arrangement was repeated in 2000, 2005 and 2010 elections.

All these polls saw Mr Hamad neck and neck with the CCM presidential candidate in Zanzibar – proving his mantle and popularity in that battleground.

In 1995 and 2010, he garnered 49 per cent of the votes. CUF denounced all official results in the Isles, but in 2010 the ruling party was forced into a power sharing deal to form a government of national unity with Mr Hamad, who became the Isles’ First Vice President.

On the other hand, Prof Lipumba failed to prove that he was a real threat to the ruling party CCM. In 1995, he finished third. The following 10 years saw CUF dominating opposition politics in the country, but it was also during this time CCM won with their biggest margin so far.

In 2000, the ruling party’s Benjamin Mkapa was re-elected after garnering 71.4 per cent of the votes while Prof Lipumba secured only 16.2 per cent. In 2005, Prof Lipumba’s share dropped to 11.6 per cent while CCM’s Jakaya Kikwete bagged a landslide with 80.2 per cent of the votes. In 2005, CUF was eclipsed by Chadema as the main opposition party, and Prof Lipumba finished in the third place with only eight per cent of votes.

The results were similar in parliamentary races with the biggest chunk of CUF MPs coming from Zanzibar. For instance, in the 2010 elections CUF performed its best since 1995 in the Mainland by obtaining two elected MPs. In the same year, the party in Zanzibar produced 22 MPs out of 50 Isles constituencies.

For Prof Lipumba, the fall did not just suddenly happen. It started years ago – and he has been dropping all the while.

His now rival Mr Hamad has had a concoction of sweet victory, luck and bad luck – one can be forgiven for saying that the man has just not been lucky enough. But unlike his CUF rival, the man’s popularity in the Isles is in the election results of the past years for all to see, apparently.

But Prof Lipumba feels let down.

In resigning last year, he said the opposition coalition Ukawa erred in welcoming a CCM defector and former premier Edward Lowassa to hand him a presidential ticket. Ironically, the economics professor played a key role in bringing in Mr Lowassa.

It turned out Prof Lipumba also wanted to vie for the presidency under the Ukawa banner. He, however, blamed his CUF and Ukawa colleagues for seeing him as an obstacle.

Last week, he told a local TV station that Maalim Seif was going behind his back and negotiated with other principal Ukawa leaders.

His resignation didn’t do CUF any harm in the October polls. The party went on to record its all-time best performance after grabbing 10 parliamentary seats in Tanzania Mainland.

One must be forgiven for saying it, but it must be said: Prof Lipumba is in a battle he faces a humiliating defeat.

It may be ill-advised for him to continue fighting.

He had done the honourable thing – read his resignation letter and admitted he was past his effectiveness in this war.

But it’s all a stage as William Shakespeare puts it in his 1599 monologue ‘As You like It wrote’: “All the world’s a stage, and all the men and women merely players; they have their exits and their entrances, and one man in his time plays many parts..”