Race for Zanzibar Presidential race hots up as Mbarawa joins

Dar es Salaam. The race for the CCM ticket to run for the Zanzibar presidency in the October 2020 General Election intensified further with Water and Irrigation Minister Makame Mbarawa throwing his weight around the matter.
Prof Mbarawa becomes the second minister in the Union govern-ment to try out his luck, coming in after his counterpart in the Ministry of Defence, Dr Hussein Ali Mwinyi.
The entry of Prof Mbarawa, whose name has for sometime popped up in political talks over the Zanzibar race to succeed President Ali Mohamed Shein, introduces an interesting twist to the would be hot contest for the CCM ticket.
Prof Mbarawa has been said to enjoy a warm and confident rela-tion with President John Magufuli, who is the ruling party’s chairman and incumbent, who will also run for a second term as the Union President in the elections.
In an interview with Mwananchi last year, Prof Mbarawa played down talks that he was President Magufuli’s preferred candidate to succeed Dr Shein. He said during the interview that he had no plans or dreams of running for the office.
Yesterday, he gave very little into his apparent change of heart, only saying shortly after collecting the CCM nomination forms: “Brothers and sisters, I know your hearts expected to hear my word today, just as my heart would want to but I suggest we shouldn’t talk today because we are going to work.”
Political analysts view the candidatures of Prof Mbarawa, Dr Mwinyi as introducing an interesting contest within CCM as would be that of former chief minister in the Zanzibar government Shamsi Vuai Nahodha who is among those from the Isles to have served in top positions in both governments.
 The Zanzibar race appears crowded as a total of 13 aspirants have so far collected the CCM nomination forms, including the first woman aspirant, Ms Mwantumu Mussa Sultan, who collected her forms yesterday.
Other CCM cadres considered heavy weights in the Isles who have collected nomination forms are Ali Abeid Karume, a minister in the Zanzibar cabinet and son of founding president Abeid Amani Karume as well as the brother of former Zanzibar President Amani Abeid Karume.
Others who have declared the same interest are retired Tanzania People’s Defence Forces (TPDF) major general Issa Salum Nassor, Mr Mohamed Jaffar Jumanne, Mr Mohamed Hijja Mohamed, Mr Mbwana Bakari Juma, Mr Mbwana Yahya Mwinyi, Mr Omari Sheha Mussa, Mr Haji Rashid Pandu and Abdulkharim Mohammed Ali.Political pundits told The Citizen yesterday that the crowded race in Zanzibar for the CCM nomination for presidency would be like a chessboard game likely to be won by intra-party traditions.
The array of the candidates, they however argued, would a challenge because some presidential hopefuls shared qualifications impressive to the Union and Tanzania mainland politics compared to the party politics in the Isles.
 The con-test between the two sides would get heated towards the tape later in July.
A political science lecturer at the University of Dar es Salaam (UDSM), Prof Bakari Mohamed, said while CCM on the mainland would prefer a manageable person, Zanzibar would like to have some-one aggressive in protecting their interests in the Union.
“It is a huge challenge because someone who sail through among the high profile aspirants including Dr Mwinyi, Prof Mbarawa and Mr Nahodha would depend on the politics of the two sides of the Union,” he said in a telephone interview.
Prof Mohamed said looking at the current politics, that in the Mainland will likely take the great-er sway in the decision making for the party.
“It is going to be tricky because the choice could be wrong somehow as someone considered loyal may change after assuming office and act contrary to expectations,” he proffered.
Zanzibar political commentator Abdul Sherrif concurred with Prof Mohamed, saying mainland politics determined the person chosen for the Isles presidency especially during the party’s endorsement meetings in Dodoma.

“Geographical location was another factor determining the choice especially whether the candidate originates from Unguja or Pemba.
Dr Shein was lucky because he was endorsed after as the Union Vice Presidency,” he said, adding: “But, the challenge remains to be whether the Zanzibaris will once again be ready for any surprise repeat.”
He said both Dr Mwinyi and Prof Mbarawa shared several qualifications including experience, loyalty, were moderates and capable peo-ple to bring political consensus.
He said the two were most likely relying on mainland CCM support. However, he said, some presiden-tial aspirants cannot be trusted because they can be considered loyal and abruptly change after being voted to office. He said CCM may be forced to wield the heavy stick as well.
A lecturer at the State University of Zanzibar (Suza), Dr Ali Makame Ussi, differed, saying it was difficult to speak on the future because the nomination process was long and still underway.
He said a large number of party members who have collected nomination forms was a sign of political and democratic maturity in the Isles, giving CCM a broad opportunity to pick from the list a better candidate.
“CCM is a big party that has a strong foundation and the will to continue leading the country. If this is not among its determination, then the ruling will have lost its focus,” he said.
Meanwhile CUF aspirants for the Zanzibar presidency include Mr Rajab Mbarouk, Mr Abbas Juma Mhunzi, Habib Mohamed Mnyaa and Faki Suleiman Khatibu, whom The Citizen learnt yesterday have collected the party’s nomination forms.
The party’s Union president aspirant is Chief Lutasola Yemba .