What did South Africa 'supply' to Russia that so upset the Americans?

What South Africa allegedly supplied to Russia, sparking an extraordinary diplomatic row and jeopardising billions in US-South African trade and investment, is being treated as a top secret by President Cyril Ramaphosa's government.

The National Conventional Arms Control Committee, which monitors and certifies all arms trade in and out of South Africa, says no arms or ammunition have been sold to Russia from South Africa.

Far from being contrite, the South Africans are very angry, with a spokesman for the presidency saying on Friday that Washington would not be allowed to dictate South Africa's relations with other countries, and that US ambassador Reuben Brigety would receive a démarche - a diplomatic reprimand of the highest order.

Analysts are concerned that the South Africans are missing the point: one of its largest trading partners, providing aid and assistance programmes as well as favourable and preferential trade terms, is prepared to break off a long-standing 'friendship' and withdraw billions of dollars in promised aid over allegations that South Africa is supplying arms and ammunition to Russia.

With the US ambassador saying he would 'stake my life on the accuracy of this information', the South Africans have responded with an investigation, but also with great indignation at the US diplomatic move in the full glare of the media spotlight.

With the story at the top of the domestic news agenda, not least because no one has been able to publicly back up the American allegations with actual evidence, political observers across the spectrum are both puzzled by what lies behind the row and worried about what it means for US-South African relations in the future.

Whatever prompted US Ambassador Brigety's public outburst in front of the summoned media, it is important enough for Washington to have made a very public point, with the ambassador highlighting South Africa's - and by extension, the surrounding countries' - vulnerability under the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA), which offers preferential trade relations and tariff reductions to selected African states.

Breach of diplomatic etiquette

With the American diplomat summoned to explain what the South Africans called a serious breach of diplomatic etiquette, and the issue of the docking of the sanctioned Russian-flagged cargo ship, the Lady R, at South Africa's Simonstown naval base last December having already been formally raised behind closed doors, the row has blown up to the point where S Africa's status under AGOA seems all but over, say economic analysts here who are worried about the fallout from the incident.

With the vital AGOA preferential trade arrangement only up for renewal in 2025, the more pressing question is what the impact will be on S Africa's annual $22 billion trade with America, plus billions more in promised aid and assistance programmes.

AgriSA, a civil society group representing farmers, has said that the loss of AGOA eligibility is likely to cost the country billions.

Economists also pointed out that the US ambassador's emphasis on a lack of appreciation for American aid, support and investment was, in effect, a thinly veiled threat to the existing relationship between Washington and South Africa.

Amid the adamant denials and equally adamant accusations, the mystery at the heart of the furore remains.

What the Russians could possibly want from South Africa in the way of weapons is a key part of the puzzle.

Certainly, the behaviour of the Lady R prior to her docking in early December, ostensibly to unload a long-standing order for ammunition from the SA National Defence Force, was at least suspicious.

According to African military analyst and veteran military correspondent Helmoed-Römer Heitman, the ship travelled west to east around the Cape, passing both Cape Town harbour and Simonstown, before turning around and switching off its AIS, or automatic identification system, used by all large ships at sea.

"The whole thing was supposed to be super-secret. But they had to use huge lights to unload the cargo, and there was a blackout at the time, so half of Simonstown was outside to witness the only entertainment going on," Heitman told Nation.Africa.

"Many witnesses saw cargo being unloaded, some being set aside and then taken out of the port in several trucks, and some cargo that had been unloaded being reloaded on board.

"No one saw large equipment of any kind being loaded onto the ship, and there was no noticeable traffic into the naval base before the ship docked, so what exactly the S Africa was delivering, if anything, must have been small, perhaps electronics such as circuit boards or command and control systems that the Russians have had trouble getting by other means (due to sanctions)," Heitman said.

The cargo ship, a container carrier built in 2004, then anchored off Beira in northern Mozambique after offloading some ammunition at Simonstown and allegedly loading more war materiel at the South African naval port.

The official opposition has been questioning whether the South African government has been supplying the Russian military since the middle of last year, with repeated denials of any military supplies.

But President Cyril Ramaphosa's response to a parliamentary question on the matter on Thursday seemed to indirectly confirm that there was some truth to the story, with the president saying only that "in due course" all the information about what had been unloaded and loaded would be revealed once the matter had been fully "investigated", a process which was now underway.

The American embassy in South Africa was contacted by the Nation for further comment on what evidence it had to back up the ambassador's claims, but there was no immediate response.

South African military sources said there was no clarity on what exactly South Africa could have supplied to Russia, as most of the equipment and calibres used by the two countries are different.

Both security sources and Democratic Alliance leader John Steenhuisen suggested that the main offloads from the Lady R were boxes of AK-47 ammunition.

Also included, according to Heitman, were 107mm multiple rocket launchers of the type used by South African special forces, as well as 23mm cannon ammunition and 14.5mm heavy machine gun ammunition.

The vessel, a medium-sized cargo carrier, then left South African waters and anchored in Beira, a key port and city in northern Mozambique where ISIS-linked elements have been involved in a long-running insurgency, regional military observers said.

It remains unclear exactly what arms and ammunition South Africa may have offered Russia, but possibilities include G5 and G6 artillery guns, the latter of which is self-propelled and the longest range and most accurate of its kind in the world.

Developed during the era of racial minority rule known as apartheid, the G5/G6 howitzer system is hyper-accurate and can be set up and deployed in less than two minutes, with a range of up to 67kms (42 miles) using special long-range ammunition, striking within 5-10 metres of the target and at a high rate of fire of 8 rounds per minute.

The weapons system was used by both sides in the Iran-Iraq conflict in the 1980s, and has been used in Yemen since 2015.

Military sources in South Africa said that while it would make sense for the Russians to acquire a long-range, hyper-accurate artillery system such as that produced by national arms manufacturer Denel, the company, which is now 51 percent German-owned, would "never sell G6s to Russia".

But the South African National Defence Force (SANDF) is a plausible possible supplier of such a system, capable of effectively countering US and NATO-supplied systems such as M777 artillery and HIMARS.

However, Heitman said there was no evidence of such equipment being supplied by South Africa.

"While there are some 40+ G6s in the SANDF arsenal, of which only two are in service, and over 70 G5s, the same weapon but not self-propelled, of which only about 5 or 6 are in service, the problem is that there is very little ammunition for them," Heitman added.

"A Russian purchase of such systems somehow makes sense, although they already have rough equivalents - but the lack of ammunition for them is the real indicator that these weapons could not have been involved; they are very large and heavy, and their movement into the naval yard is almost certain to be noticed."

With large and small arms ruled out, the question of what exactly the US ambassador was referring to remained unanswered.

A well-placed security source told NMG that "the only thing that made sense was maybe some electronic equipment", perhaps hi-tech equipment that, though relatively small, was vital for supplying the beleaguered Russian war machine.

Even without a clear public cause for the dispute, it has only escalated since the allegations were made on Thursday.

Ukraine's ambassador to South Africa, Liubov Abravitova, urgently sought talks with her counterparts in Pretoria on the issue.

President Ramaphosa said the US ambassador's claims had undermined relations between the two countries.

Diplomatic sources in South Africa said there was "no way" the US ambassador would have made his comments without the go-ahead from the White House, and that mounting pressure on the Ramaphosa administration over its perceived pro-Russian stance was now rapidly mounting.

Recently, Ramaphosa personally invited Russian leader Vladimir Putin to attend the upcoming summit of the Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa (BRICS) grouping in South Africa in August, and Putin accepted.

But Putin's attendance has been thrown into doubt by the Interpol Red Notice arrest warrant issued against him by the International Criminal Court for alleged war crimes.

Last week, it was suggested through diplomatic channels that Putin and South Africa could avoid an international problem by having the Russian leader "virtually" attend, despite the ruling African National Congress (ANC) vowing to "never arrest" the Russian leader if he came to this country.

The suggestion came after a state visit by Finnish President Sauli Niinistö, who told his South African host in private that South Africa, as the newest member of Nato, needed its Finnish "historic friends" to understand that it could not be "friends" with Russia under Putin while the Kremlin was waging war in Ukraine and also with Western countries like Finland and the other members of Nato.

South Africa, Ramaphosa was told in the bluntest terms, had to choose who it was going to be friends with - and the stakes were high.

The ruling ANC is riven by ideological divisions, with some left-wing elements still harbouring fond memories of Russia's support in the struggle to overthrow the hated racist apartheid system, and harsh views of alleged "Western imperialism", with Washington portrayed in these quarters as the main "culprit".