Dar population boom set to hit over 16 million

The results are also consistent with a report titled “Ecological Threat” produced by the Institute for Economics and Peace and published on October 5, 2022, which detailed that Dar es Salaam’s current population, which is estimated to be 7.5 million, will increase to 16.4 million, making it the largest among the ten upcoming megacities.

The analysis in the paper casts doubt on the viability of some of the places with the highest population growth as they contend with subpar sanitation, environmental dangers, and crime.

Speaking to The Citizen, the Minister for Lands, Housing and Human Settlements Development, Mr Jerry Silaa, explained that the government has begun to work on a number of measures that will prepare the city to accommodate the expected population.

“We are currently carrying out our work in accordance with the Dar es Salaam Master Plan, which spans the years 2016 and 2036 and suggests several strategies for the city’s renovation and densification,” he said.

Some of the approaches include the construction of six phases of the Bus Rapid Transit system from the city centre to other parts of the city, such as Mbagala, Kimara, Ukonga, Tegeta, Motoni and Muzimuni to Mtoni. Another approach will be the construction of outer ring roads from Mwenge to Kurasini, Tankibovu to Kibada and Bunju to Kibada. “We will also construct 2,383,403 housing units by 2036 to accommodate a population of 15.2 million. Another plan is to establish investments from industries and commercial activities that will generate 1.5 million jobs in the region,” Mr Silaa detailed.

He further revealed that per capita growth will also increase from $6796 to $15,631 by 2036.

“We will also develop six satellite towns across Dar es Salaam to decongest the city centre population,” Mr Silaa said.

According to an urbanisation professor who preferred anonymity, the government has to develop Dar es Salaam into a smart city to manage the increase in population.

“Once Dar es Salaam becomes a megacity, it is expected that the management of the city will also turn smart. This is because where we are headed will require the development and utilisation of technology to reduce the complexities of the megacity in question. This will also smooth the government’s work in informing the public about different issues and making decisions for the people in that particular city,” the professor emphasised.

The professor detailed that technology will have to be enhanced to track and inform the public about traffic jams, natural disasters, investment in industries and the development of the city.

For her part, Chief Operations and Communications (COC) at a real estate agency, Hamia Hapa, Ms Judith Mwanri, says the government has to prioritise certain sectors that will enhance its effectiveness once Dar es Salaam becomes a megacity. Such sectors include housing, infrastructure, health and telecommunication.

“The effectiveness of these sectors in Dar es Salaam will manage the increase in demands by this population. On the other hand, there needs to be change and protection of policies that will enable all these people to live harmoniously,” she explained.

This report revealed an increase of 2.1 million people in Dar es Salaam compared to the results of the National Census, which was conducted from August 23 to September 4, 2022, when this report became public.

The other cities in the report that are projected to become megacities in 2050 include Nairobi in Kenya, Surat, Pune and Ahmedabad in India, Chicago in the United States of America (USA), Khartoum in Sudan, Ho Chi Minh City in Vietnam, Luanda in Angola and Baghdad in Iraq.