Threats linger despite Tanzania having 4 million tonnes of food surplus

Dar es Salaam. Tanzania has a food surplus of 4 million tonnes, according to the Bank of Tanzania’s latest report, but looming price increases could have an adverse effect on its affordability.

Underlying factors such as rising transport costs, driven mostly by costlier fuel, increased demand for food in neighbouring countries and the possibility of heavy rains all threaten to make food more expensive in the coming months.

BoT data shows that Tanzania produced 20.4 million tonnes of food crops in the 2022/23 financial against estimated demand of 16.39 million tonnes in 2023/24.

In its Consolidated Zonal Economic Performance report for the year ending June 2023, the central bank indicates that this resulted in a food self-sufficiency ratio of 124 percent.

“This optimistic picture may, however, be tempered by the continuous growth of transportation costs, increased demand for food from neighbouring countries and projected heavy rains that could disrupt transportation networks and damage food production in 2023/2024 crop season,” the report says

In light of these challenges, stakeholders have emphasised the need for proactive measures to safeguard Tanzania’s food security.

Agriculture expert Audax Rukonge said while food production remains robust, vigilance and proactive measures are essential to ensure that the nation’s self-sufficiency is not compromised.

“It’s noticeable that production has increased. However, this is overshadowed by challenging factors such as inadequate infrastructure, which has led to post-harvest losses, eventually impacting prices,” he said.

Mr Rukonge said rising fuel prices have also increased costs incurred in transporting produce from farms in remote areas to processing or storage destinations.

“The government should continue to invest more in infrastructure and also develop technologically advanced facilities for processing, especially at source regions, to remove the need to transport fresh produce from one area to another,” he added.

Mr Rukonge, a former Agricultural Non-State Actors Forum (Ansaf) executive director, added that in an economic perspective, production levels are favourable for Tanzania’s role within the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA).

Senior consultant and economist Samuel Wangwe recommended that the government devise proper solutions to improve returns to farmers so that the market can have fair prices.

“These initiatives can go hand in hand with proper market facilitation and regulatory management on exports,” he said.

Prof Wangwe added that Tanzania has made great strides in infrastructure development over the years and the outlook is promising despite existing challenges in some areas.

“We should continue to strategically manage our marketing facilities and the way we conduct international trade in food products and I believe the Agriculture minister has already provided a way forward,” he said.

Institute of Management and Entrepreneurship Development chief executive Donath Olomi said market prices of food products like flour and rice do not reflect improved production.

“The government needs to ensure price stability, for instance, through having major storage facilities for national reserves that will provide affordable access to food for people when there are fewer food productions/less food availability,” he said.

Dr Olomi said this will help in ensuring food security by buffering from the seasonal price fluctuations.

Food sufficiency by numbers

In the 20.4 million tonnes produced in 2022/23, Cereal production amounted to 11.4 million tonnes, while non-cereal production was 8.9 million tonnes.

Maize accounted for 39.3 percent, and rice 11.4 percent of the total food production

All zones were food-sufficient, led by Southern Highlands regions (Katavi, Mbeya, Rukwa, Iringa, Songwe, and Njombe) which were the most sufficient regions by 206 percent.

Dar es Salaam was the only zone with a deficit, with the shortfall being put at over 1.2 million tonnes.