Why Paul Kagame plans to ditch East Africa Community chair

Kampala/Dar es Salaam. As the East African Community (EAC) gears for the Summit scheduled for November 30, countries forming the “Coalition of the Willing” are reported to have sealed a deal that would see Rwanda ditching the position of the chair, to allow Kenya’s Uhuru Kenyatta to be the new boss of the regional bloc, The Citizen has learnt.

President Paul Kagame was due to assume the community’s chairmanship during the Heads of State Summit in Kampala, due this Saturday.

 Although Rwanda claims that the 2014 will be a busy year politically, reliable sources from Kigali told The Citizen yesterday that ‘the move has been taken’ because of the changing political atmosphere within the region as well as in the Democratic Republic of Congo.

 “Things aren’t comfortable between us and some of our neighbours...there is still the issue of coalition of the willing, against which Tanzania has openly protested.

 “We haven’t also fully sorted out our misunderstanding with Tanzania, which almost threw the EAC into state of disarray mid-this-year.” A senior Rwandan diplomat told The Citizen over the phone. 

The diplomat who strongly declined to be named because he isn’t the official spokesperson for the Rwandan government added, “Our two leaders met in Kampala, this year, and had very fruitful talks, but there are issues that need to be fully addressed in order to restore trust between us.”

 The Rwandese diplomat further said, “For the time being we feel there is so much in our plate and, therefore, the timing isn’t good for Rwanda to take over the EAC chair position.”

 The Daily Nation further reported that Rwanda was reluctant to head the bloc at the height of its diplomatic spat with Tanzania, blamed for the latter’s apparent isolation by its neighbours.

Besides underlining the wedge between Kigali and Dar es Salaam, the development would also complicate admission of the new office occupants.

On Saturday, our sister newspaper, The Monitor, reported that Rwanda’s Foreign Affairs minister Louise Mushikiwabo confirmed late on Friday that a crowded domestic schedule, with landmark political observances in 2014, prompted discussions to have another country hold the yearly rotational chair.

“Yes, there have been consultations to skip Rwanda; the coming year is a busy time for Rwanda, with multiple activities related to the commemoration of the 20th anniversary of the genocide and 20 years of liberation,” said Ms Mushikiwabo, also the government spokesperson.

“The matter will be decided upon by the Heads of State during their [November 30] summit.”

 Uganda took over the EAC rotational chair from Kenya, last year, and is to hand over to Rwanda, followed by Tanzania and Burundi, according to the logical sequence.

Details gathered by The Citizen show that both Rwanda and Uganda have agreed that the chair post be taken by President Kenyatta.

Yesterday, the Daily Nation, reported that President Kenyatta was tipped of being the new chair after Rwanda’s move to skip the position.

But, Mr Manoah Esipisu, Kenya’s State House spokesperson, said he was not aware about the plan to give President Kenyatta the EAC’s chair position.

According to the paper, Rwanda’s decision reportedly followed a quiet, high-level understanding between the region’s “coalition of the willing” countries – Uganda, Kenya and Rwanda – whose presidents over the past year held three back-to-back meetings on, among other things, infrastructure and regional integration.

The leaders reportedly agreed that Kigali forfeits its turn this year in favour of Kenya to enable newcomer President Uhuru Kenyatta as a timely shot in his arm during the ongoing political and diplomatic lobbying for the deferral of his International Criminal Court trial.

Regional leaders are gambling that giving Mr Kenyatta chair of a group of five countries, with more than 134 million people and a combined GDP of $83 billion, would politically insulate him against the West “that would not want to plunge a region into chaos”.

That notwithstanding, secretary-general Richard Sezibera on Friday circulated to member countries a revised summit programme still indicating that President Paul Kagame would take over the EAC chairmanship.

Understanding

In Kampala, sources said Rwanda’s officials in the ministry responsible for the Community Affairs communicated the surprise decision to their Ugandan counterparts on Friday, hours to the start of preliminary meetings for the summit, throwing the organisers in quandary.

Mr Shem Bageine, the Ugandan minister for EAC, said he was in Nairobi and remarked: “I have not received such information. Let me find out.”

Mr Chris Magoba, the spokesman for Uganda EAC ministry said: “Unfortunately, I am not able to say anything about whether Rwanda will assume the chair or not because we expect Rwanda to participate. If there should be any changes, a press statement will be issued.”

Rwanda’s decision reportedly followed a quiet high-level understanding between the region’s ‘coalition of the willing’ countries --- Uganda, Kenya and Rwanda --- whose presidents over the past few months, held three back-to-back meetings to the exclusion of Tanzania and Burundi.

The UN Security Council has already rejected African Union’s plea to delay the planned trial by a year.

Regional leaders are speculating that giving Mr Kenyatta chair would add another protection gear against the ICC appearance in February, next year.

Insiders to EAC matters said, that could change if Rwanda advanced valid reasons to step back, allowing for the Heads of State to confer and choose a replacement.

If Rwanda’s move is a carefully planned matter, voting would surely give Kenyatta the majority, leaving the  natural chair holder, Tanzania,  out. This would disrupt the logical sequence of the rotation of the chair.

Other sources suggested that Rwanda was reluctant to head the bloc at the height of its diplomatic spat with Tanzania, blamed for the latter’s apparent isolation by the neighbours.

The community head of corporate communications, Mr Richard Owora Othieno, said he was not aware of the developments.

“It would be shocking because Rwanda confirmed participating,” he said.

Rwandan delegates arrived in Kampala for a series of senior officials’ preliminary meetings ahead of the November 28 Council of Ministers sitting to be followed, this Saturday, by Heads of State Summit at Commonwealth Resort Munyonyo.

Organisers say stakeholders were increasingly looking to the Kampala Summit to cool off tempers in the bloc, and any unilateral decision by Rwanda not to lead the bloc could potentially be interpreted as a kick in the teeth for Uganda that fervently lobbied for the admission of both Rwanda and Burundi to the EAC.

Besides underlining the wedge between Kigali and Dar es Salaam, the development would also complicate admission of new applicants.