Economic indicators to watch: Navigating the stock and commodity markets this year
Navigating stocks and commodities this year must be done with a keen attention to detail. Both markets are different by nature and therefore require different analytical approaches, but that doesn’t stop them from reacting similarly to broader macroeconomic conditions, nor does it negate the research you should put into understanding every driver.
As always, you’ll need a strong understanding of how the stock and commodity markets work and their varying volatility – a comprehensive deep dive can be found in this article by Exness – multiple technical indicators to assist you with timing entries and identifying trends, and robust risk management strategies.
But apart from this, it’s important to stay aware of key economic indicators that will influence overall market direction. There are numerous macroeconomic factors that could affect the stock and commodity markets in 2026, and while no one knows for sure how global conditions will evolve, it’s wise to expect a continued level of volatility across both asset classes.
Let’s start by looking at inflation. For those unaware, this measures how quickly prices for goods and services are rising, with higher inflation often impacting interest rates and market volatility.
When it comes to the stock market, this can often be a headwind for valuations, as each stock is ultimately influenced by company performance. If inflation is high, that likely means the company is being affected, and the stock in question is likely to experience downward pressure – or at the very least, increased volatility.
For the commodity market, it plays a different role, with commodities like gold and oil often acting as hedges during inflationary periods.
H2: Interest Rates
Another economic indicator to keep an eye on is interest rates. These are set by central banks such as the US Federal Reserve or the Bank of England, and they play a key role in shaping stock valuations and influencing currency strength.
For instance, when the Federal Reserve raises interest rates, borrowing becomes more expensive for both consumers and businesses. This then leads to slower economic growth and reduced corporate profits.
At the same time, higher interest rates can strengthen the US dollar, which might negatively impact commodities like oil and gold, which are tied to dollars and therefore become more expensive for foreign buyers.
H2: Gross Domestic Product
Gross Domestic Product measures overall economic growth, with a strong GDP working to support stocks through higher corporate earnings and stronger investor confidence, and a weak GDP working to lower risk appetite and lead many to expect future growth decline.
In terms of the commodity market, it also acts as a key demand signal. Because strong economic growth typically increases industrial activity and energy consumption – which can support commodities like natural gas – it generally leads to higher demand for raw materials and upward pressure on commodity prices.
For natural gas trading, this can then create stronger short-term trading opportunities, which makes it a particularly popular asset when seasonal demand is high – again, you can find more details on this particular type of trading through Exness.
H2: Employment Data
If you’re more heavily invested in the stock market than commodities, employment data – including unemployment rate and payrolls – is going to be particularly important for assessing market health.
In 2025, for instance, job growth in the US slowed to its weakest pace since 2020, with only 49,000 new jobs monthly. Likewise, the unemployment rate rose to a four-year high of 4.6% in November, finishing the year at 4.4% in December. Savvy investors would have foreseen this, using all the indicators at their disposal to draw a clear picture and manage their portfolios accordingly.
In 2026, then, it’s your job to have these indicators at your disposal – NFP, average hourly earnings, and economic calendars – and understand how employment can affect the overall economic outlook – with strong employment supporting consumer spending and equities, and weak employment signalling economic slowdown.
H2: Purchasing Managers’ Index
Another forward-looking indicator is the Purchasing Managers’ Index, which measures business activity in manufacturing and services across an economy. It’s based on surveys of business leaders, who report on numerous factors such as new orders, output levels, and supply chain conditions, making it one of the earliest signals of how economic momentum is shifting.
The interpretation can be complicated for new traders, but the important thing is that anything above 50 equals expansion, while anything below 50 equals contraction. Expansion is positive for economic growth and typically supportive for stocks, while contraction is a warning sign of slowing activity and often negative for risk assets.
The distance from 50 also matters – for instance, a reading of 52 suggests mild growth, while a jump to 58 signals strong expansion and accelerating economic activity – but if the move isn’t sustained, it’s not going to be a reliable indicator of long-term direction. What you’re looking for is sustained movement above or below 50, which is a strong signal of economic momentum and broader business confidence.
H2: How to Navigate the Stock and Commodity Markets
All of these economic indicators are going to have an impact on the stock and commodity markets this year, so it’s important to remain alert and keep your ear to the ground.
As we noted previously, there are numerous ways you can do this, including keeping up to date with NFP and continuously checking economic calendars to track upcoming releases and anticipate periods of high market volatility.
Apart from this, it’s also a good idea to follow central bank announcements and forward guidance closely, as these often signal future changes in interest rates before they happen.
You can also monitor real-time market reactions on financial news platformsand trading dashboards, which will not only help you understand what’s happening, but process the overall sentiment which will be so crucial to gauging market direction.
Combining all of this with technical chart analysis will be the key to managing your portfolios more efficiently, and ensuring that, whatever might happen, you have the appropriate framework to deal with it.
