Josephine Christopher is a senior business journalist for The Citizen and Mwananchi newspapers
Mwananchi Communications Limitted
Yaoundé. After a strong 2025 performance, the World Trade Organization (WTO) has warned that conflict in the Middle East now poses the biggest risk to Africa’s trade momentum, exposing developing economies such as Tanzania to rising oil prices, disrupted travel flows and mounting food security pressures.
Presenting the outlook during the WTO’s 14th Ministerial Conference in Cameroon, the organisation’s chief economist, Robert Steiger, said the region recorded a sharp recovery last year after a prolonged period of weak performance.
“Africa’s trade in goods surged in 2025. After single-digit growth or even contractions in previous years, Africa’s exports of goods grew by 10.3 percent in volume terms in 2025, while imports rose by 8.7 percent,” he said.
In value terms, the rebound was driven by strong global demand for commodities, including cocoa, coffee, gold, fertilisers and ores.
Services trade also performed strongly.
“Africa’s volume of services exports grew by 5.9 percent in 2025, making it the second-fastest-growing region in the world after Asia,” he said, noting that tourism exports rose sharply, with travel receipts increasing by 16 percent.
However, the outlook for 2026 and 2027 is markedly weaker.
“Under the baseline scenario, Africa’s merchandise export volumes are forecast to grow by 1.2 percent in 2026, picking up to 2.2 percent in 2027,” he said, adding that services exports are also expected to slow following the post-pandemic travel boom.
Conflict risks dominate outlook
Mr Steiger said the ongoing Middle East conflict remains the single biggest downside risk to Africa’s trade prospects.
“The impact is expected to be felt in three main ways,” he said.
The first is through oil prices.
“For Africa’s oil-exporting nations, higher energy prices caused by the conflict could increase export revenues. However, for the rest of the continent, these same high prices will likely act as a drag on overall economic activity,” he said.
The second channel is tourism and travel, a key driver of Africa’s services trade recovery.
“If the conflict persists, Africa’s services trade growth could be slashed from a projected 3.7 percent to just 1.7 percent in 2026,” he said, citing the Middle East’s role as a major aviation hub connecting Africa to global markets.
The third impact is on agriculture and food systems.
“The conflict has disrupted the Strait of Hormuz, a key shipping route through which one-third of the world’s fertiliser supplies pass. This raises farming costs and puts pressure on food security across the continent,” he added.
Trade patterns shifting
Despite the risks, Africa’s trade patterns are evolving amid global uncertainty.
Mr Steiger noted that while tariffs introduced in 2025 did not significantly reduce overall trade volumes, they reshaped trade flows.
“Because some Asian countries faced restricted access to the North American market, they reoriented their supplies towards fast-growing emerging markets, including Africa,” he said.
As a result, exports from China to Africa surged by 25.8 percent, while China’s share of African imports rose to nearly 25 percent. In contrast, the European Union saw its share decline over the same period.
Africa also increased exports to the United Arab Emirates and India, largely driven by demand for gold as investors sought safe-haven assets.
The global artificial intelligence boom is also shaping Africa’s trade outlook, though the benefits remain uneven.
“Because many AI-enabling goods are largely exempt from new tariffs, the global surge in technology investment has helped maintain steady demand for African raw materials and ores,” Mr Steiger said.
However, he cautioned that Africa remains on the margins of the AI economy.
“Africa currently accounts for less than 0.5 percent of global venture capital spending on AI,” he noted.
Efforts to deepen intra-African trade are ongoing but remain limited.
“In 2024, intra-African trade accounted for 16.8 percent of the continent’s exports and 13.6 percent of its imports,” he said.
For countries such as Tanzania, the task will be to cushion against global volatility while positioning for long-term gains in a rapidly changing trade environment.
