Chadema reunion? Analysts split on expelled MPs’ return

Dar es Salaam. As Tanzania heads toward the 2025 general elections, the political landscape continues to shift, particularly within opposition ranks.

Nineteen special seats Members of Parliament (MPs) expelled from the opposition party, Chadema have been making waves with their ongoing political activities, raising the question: should they be welcomed back into the party?

The MPs, led by Halima Mdee, were expelled on November 27, 2020, by the party’s Central Committee. They were accused of disloyalty, forgery of party documents, and subsequently swearing in as MPs in the National Assembly under the then-Speaker Job Ndugai.

After the decision, the MPs appealed to the party’s General Council, which met in May 2022. However, the General Council upheld the expulsion, fueling an ongoing political saga that has continued to evolve.

However, in an interview with The Citizen’s sister newspaper, Mwananchi on February 23, 2025, Chadema’s party chairman, Tundu Lissu, shared his thoughts on the process for these MPs to rejoin the party.

Mr Lissu made it clear that for the MPs to return, they would need to follow the party’s constitution. While some have expressed interest in rejoining the party, Mr Lissu emphasised that the procedure is clear: they must follow the official process set by the party.

“I am aware that many people are discussing this issue on social media, but as the chairman, I have not received any formal requests for their return,” Mr Lissu said.

He continued: “The process is simple; if they want to come back, they do not need to involve me directly. They must follow the constitutional procedure.”

Mr Lissu clarified that the MPs need to submit a formal request to the General Council, rather than bypassing the standard procedures.

He said, according to the party’s rules, expelled members must first apologize or request readmission before their case is heard by the General Council, which then decides on the matter.

“The decision to allow them back is not mine alone. It will be up to the General Council members to decide,” Mr Lissu added.

While some of expelled MPs, including Esther Bulaya, asserted that their actions were legitimate and within the law, the political future of the 19 remains uncertain.

“We didn’t illegally enter the parliament, we followed all the processes,” she noted

She added, “There is no evidence of forgery. If there could be forgery the party have already filed a case against us. I am still an active member of Chadema, and the party knows it.”

However, as the 2025 election approaches, it is clear that the political future of the 19 expelled MPs remains uncertain.

Speaking to The Citizen, a political scientist at the University of Dodoma, Dr Paul Loisulie, believes that re-admitting the expelled MPs could benefit Chadema, especially in terms of strengthening its political machinery and enhancing its credibility ahead of the 2025 elections.

He pointed out that the MPs have a wealth of experience and significant political clout, which could be crucial in a highly competitive election year.

“Chadema has always prided itself on being a party of democracy and transparency. In the run-up to the 2025 general elections, the party will need all hands on deck, especially experienced leaders like the expelled MPs who have a track record of mobilizing voters,” Dr Loisulie explained.

He said: “While the allegations against them are serious, their past contributions to the party cannot be ignored. If they follow the necessary procedures to return, it could be a win-win situation for Chadema, allowing it to reconcile and unify its ranks ahead of a critical election.”

Dr Loisulie also emphasized the growing discontent within the electorate, particularly among opposition supporters who may view the expulsion as an act of authoritarianism within the party.

He believes that offering the expelled MPs a chance to return could foster greater unity among opposition supporters, making Chadema more competitive against the ruling party.

On the other hand, a political analyst from the State University of Zanzibar, Professor Makame Ali Ussi, expressed concerns about the potential risks of re-admitting the expelled MPs.

Professor Ussi argued that Chadema should prioritize internal discipline and party unity, as reintroducing members who have publicly broken party rules might send a wrong message about accountability within the party.

“Chadema is at a critical juncture in its history, and it cannot afford to compromise its principles of accountability and integrity,” Professor Ussi said.

He continued: “Allowing these MPs to return without addressing the underlying issues of disloyalty and the perceived erosion of party discipline could weaken the party in the long run. The public and the electorate are increasingly sensitive to parties that fail to maintain strong internal structures, and Chadema must be careful not to appear as a party that tolerates internal betrayal.”

Professor Ussi further added that the issue of loyalty within political parties is paramount, especially in Tanzania, where party affiliations often shape political success.

“The electorate values loyalty, and re-admitting expelled MPs may lead some voters to question Chadema’s commitment to its values. If they want to come back, they need to demonstrate that they understand and are willing to uphold the party’s core principles,” he shared.

For his part, a political analyst from the University of Dar es Salaam, Dr Onesmo Kyauke, shared a similar view, warning that allowing the MPs back into Chadema could disrupt the party’s unity.

He stressed that while the MPs’ past work is noteworthy, the damage caused by their expulsion cannot be easily overlooked.

“Chadema has a vibrant base that values its unity and consistency in its approach to political and ethical issues. “By re-admitting those who have defied party rules, Chadema risks losing the trust of its supporters. While the MPs may be considered valuable assets to the party, the long-term impact of their return must be carefully evaluated to ensure it does not create further division within the ranks,” Dr Kyauke said.

Dr Kyauke further suggested that the party could explore alternatives, such as offering the MPs a chance to engage in dialogue without immediately re-integrating them.

He noted that Chadema could invite them to contribute to policy development or campaign strategies, ensuring their expertise is still utilized without compromising the party’s integrity.