No hope in sight for South Sudan

Arusha. It was a rather shaky deal when in August last year the government of President Salvar Kiir of South Sudan signed what was supposed to be a binding peace agreement with his rival Riek Machar to end the bitter conflict that has raged since December 2013.

For many, it was a non-event: conflict had divided the world’s newest nation down the middle on ethnic lines. Apparently, it had become very difficult to reconcile the two sides, no matter the gear used.

This was vindicated when heavy gunfire rattled throughout the sleepy capital of Juba in early July. It became evident that the war in South Sudan had taken a much more dangerous turn with possibly disastrous consequences.

Even as the East African Community (EAC) heads of state prepare for a special summit to be held in Dar es Salaam next month, hope continues to fade for the bloc’s newest member.

No solution is in sight, at least for the moment.

The East African Community Extraordinary Summit, which had earlier been scheduled for August 19, will not mediate the South Sudan conflict because the country is yet to attain membership status in the regional body.

The Foreign Affairs ministry has said the agenda for next month’s EAC Summit is an evaluation of the status of the ratification of the EAC Treaty by South Sudan.

The extraordinary summit will also deliberate on a report from the EAC’s mediator for the Burundi peace talks, the Ugandan President Yoweri Museveni. By the end of last month, renewed clashes had left over 300 people dead and thousands of others (estimated to be about 60,000) displaced.

Some citizens are trapped within the borders of the crisis-torn country. Others have fled to the neighbouring states of Uganda, Kenya, Ethiopia and Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC).

The East African Law Society (EALS) has described the crisis as “a cycle of betrayal of the ordinary citizens of South Sudan who have endured over 25 years of unfathomable suffering”.

EALS was referring to the civil war that raged in Sudan since the early 1980s when Juba was fighting for secession from Khartoum. The war ended with the signing of the Comprehensive Peace Agreement in Kenya in early 2005 after years of tough negotiations spearheaded by mainly Kenya, Uganda and Ethiopia.

The bar association, in a statement signed by its current President Nassor Khamis Mohammed, is worried renewed conflict in the EAC partner state has come only eleven months after a peace agreement signed by the two sides in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia last August came into force and hardly three months after the country acceeded to the EAC.

“More troubling, however, is the fact that the two leaders (President Kiir and Dr Machar) have chosen personal political ambition over the peace and wellbeing of the long suffering South Sudan citizens,” he said in a complaint lodged by the lawyers’ body to the EAC Secretariat for apparent inaction since renewed clashes began in Juba.

EAC secretary general Liberat Mfumukeko was taken to task for the apparent inaction despite having powers conferred on him to intervene in the crisis, of course, with other organs of the Community, including the Heads of State Summit and the Council of Ministers, its policy organ.

“We are disturbed by the continued silence of the EAC on this matter particularly when well aware that the situation in South Sudan could have devastating geo-political effects across the region,” a terse letter addressed to the Community boss said in part.

For instance, Article 29 (1) of the EAC Treaty empowers the SG to act whenever any partner state failed to live up to its committments under the Treaty and its attendant protocols.

Amb. Mfumukeko, a Burundi national who assumed office as the new EAC boss some fourth months ago, was not the only leader within the region who was under fire for the deteriorating situation in the EAC partner state.

EALS President believes it was high time that the EAC stood up and reminded the warring leaders of the strife-torn country to stop fighting for the sake of their country and people.

President Kiir and his arch rival Dr Machar are not off the hook either as are some of their key lieutenants.

The regional lawyers have underscored the need to re-evaluate the readiness of the current South Sudan’s leadership to live up to their obligations under the EAC Treaty as well as their committments under the various international conventions and treaties that they have acceded to.

“In the same vein, it is vital that as a region, we come up with ideas on how to bring errant states and leaders back in line to ensure that such instances do not happen again”, they said.

When contacted on the issue last weekend, officials of the Arusha-based EAC Secretariat confirmed a likelihood of an emergency summit of the Heads of States convened by President John Magufuli in his capacity as EAC Chair, to discuss how to stop violence in its member state.

“Should all heads of state agree on the dates, a special summit will be held in Dar es Salaam and South Sudan will be top on the agenda,” one official who spoke on condition of anonymity confided to Political Platform.

Plans for an emergency meeting of the EAC leaders have come as another regional bloc Igad (Intergovernmental Authority on Development), for which South Sudan is also a member, is mulling an idea of sending an intervention force to back up UN troops already there.

South Sudan was admitted into the EAC in March this year a few months after a peace agreement was signed by the government of President Salva Kiir and his arch-rival and former vice president Riek Machar to stop killings which erupted in December 2013.

This was followed by the signing of the Accession Treaty for the country into EAC between President Magufuli, the Heads of State Chair and the South Sudan leader in Dar es Salaam on April 15th this year, paving way for ratification by October 1st this year as the two parties agreed.

However, renewed deadly clashes in the capital Juba since early last month, has clouded the likelihood of the world’s newest nation ratifying the protocol on the agreed dates and get fully integrated into the bloc.

“It is true with the conflict worsening,the issue of ratifying the protocol will have to be put aside and stop fighting first,” the official explained, noting that EAC was worried of the fluid situation in its member state.

The recent flare-up of violence in South Sudan is reported to have claimed the lives over 300 people and 60,000 displaced.

Dr. Machar, who returned back to the country in May after absence of over two years to assume his position as the VP, is reported to have fled the capital Juba with some of his armed troops.

New developments, notwithstanding, EAC has come under fire from analysts and regional observers for the way it was handling the crisis in its member country, especially after the renewed fighting flared up there last month.

“The mistakes EAC did on Burundi are now seen in South Sudan. EAC has no clear mechanisms to address such situations,” said Simon Mapolu, a business analyst based here, noting that regional leaders have often hesitated to pin point the root causes of the conflicts and those to blame.

“Some of them are too shy to tell the warring parties that their problems emanated from tribalism or segregation of one community by the other,” he said. He called for renewed mediation efforts to save lives, this time by the EAC itself.