Rise of far right: What are impacts on Franco-African ties?

By Emilie Authier

Dar es Salaam. On June 30, 2024, the first round of the French legislative elections took place. The results are clear: it is a historic score for the Rassemblement National (RN), a far-right party, which obtained almost 30 percent of the votes.

Thus, this raises a question: if on July 7 this party gains a majority in France, what will be the supposed impacts on Franco-African relations?

Following the dissolution of the National Assembly by president Emmanuel Macron, the first round of the legislative elections was held last Sunday in France.

Facing the far-right Rassemblement National party, the new left-wing coalition, the Nouveau Front Populaire, also made a strong showing with nearly 28 percent of the votes.

The presidential camp is far behind in the results, a bitter defeat for the president. The votes on July 7 will therefore be decisive for France's internal and external policies.

Excluding dual nationals from strategic positions, establishing national preference, reinstating the offence of illegal stay, reserving social benefits for French citizens, and further conditioning access to social benefits, etc.: the measures advocated by this party in terms of immigration and international issues are alarming and raise questions both nationally and internationally.

International media have already seized upon this unprecedented and worrying situation. The Wall Street Journal stated, "Emmanuel Macron risks having to share power with the first far-right government since Vichy France."

"Until now, it was unthinkable for a far-right government to come to power in France. In the past, parties formed 'marriages of convenience' to prevent the RN from gaining power," also noted CNN.

It is difficult to predict what the consequences of the Rassemblement National coming to power will be on relations with the African continent, as this theme is so absent from the programme measures.

This already speaks volumes. The RN's last proposals on the topic dated back to the beginning of 2022. Plans to create a "Francophone union" and a "less costly" development policy were among the measures put forward by the RN.

During this statement, Marine Le Pen, one of the main representative of this party also described many African countries such as Niger and Chad as "historically friendly countries".

This seems quite ironic considering that this party is the heir of organisations and paramilitary groups that opposed African nationalist movements – those who supported the apartheid regime in South Africa.

Issues relating to North Africa, although often camouflaged, are nonetheless perceptible through the prism of migration, which is central to the RN’s programme. The RN's position on Islam is thus a major point of contention.

"The suggestions announced in the media by the party in recent weeks will only further damage the links between Paris and Algiers and North Africa as a whole", says Jean-Yves Camus, political scientist and co-director of the Observatoire des Radicalités Politiques at the Fondation Jean-Jaurès.

The southern part of the continent remains "very confidential" in the party's programme.

"The party applies an African policy on an ad hoc basis, through the intermediary of personalities who are more or less close to it", explains Jean-Yves Camus.

Nevertheless, in recent years, the RN has shown a desire to de-demonise its issues by initiating official trips to various African countries.

Karfa Diallo, founder of the Mémoires et partages association, takes offence at this strategy "on a continent whose nationals are the favourite targets of physical and verbal attacks by far-right militants".

"We must not forget that its general tone remains profoundly hostile to a multicultural society", adds Jean-Yves Camus. The anti-immigration measures announced by the RN in 2024 confirm this idea.

For Romaric Badoussi, a political scientist and teacher-researcher at the University of Parakou in Benin, "This policy would be detrimental to many Africans seeking to come to France to study or work, but also to members of the diaspora".

Furthermore, this rise of the far right also represents a threat to African students who were considering studying or working in France.

Ousmane Diangar, a student in Dakar, is concerned about the results: "In my program, there are only master's degrees here, no doctorates. So, naturally, the countries open to me are France and Canada.

With France, it would be much easier since it's a country where I have connections, but I'm afraid of what will happen when extremists come to power," he says.

Some students are even considering giving up on going to France if the far right comes to power. "It was in my plans, but not anymore. Because I saw what happened in France, and it's not right," says Oum Kalsoum Ba, a first-year law student.

For other experts, however, the arrival of the far right in power in France should not be a cause for alarm in terms of Franco-African relations.

For Steve Kpoton, a consultant in democratic governance, "given the way the semi-presidential system works, it is Emmanuel Macron who retains the upper hand in international relations.

I don't see how the Prime Minister of the RN or the far right would be able to influence things at this level".

For Oumar BA, assistant Professor in the Department of Government of Cornell University, it will also be difficult for the far right to carry out the actions it refers to in its speeches: "There is the systematisation of international law, which is stronger than domestic law".

Finally, for some, if this far-right party wins the elections in France, it would be in favour of the full sovereignty demanded by certain African countries, and would make it possible to resolve "the French interference decried by a certain African political and intellectual elite for several years", according to the SenePlus media.

However, the promises of a break in France's African policy should not be unconditionally believed, as in reality, Marine Le Pen has repeatedly voted to maintain the instruments of France's imperialist policy.

Finally, for the daily Le Pays, in Burkina Faso, this situation could also lead to an awakening of Africa's quest for emancipation: "the rise of the far right in Europe could be a blessing in disguise for Africa, in that it would sound a call to the continent to fully assume its responsibilities.

Such a situation would force African leaders to face up to their responsibilities by forcing them to find innovative solutions to the migration crisis to keep Africans on a continent that needs the strength of the arms and intelligence of its sons and daughters to kick-start its real development".