Tighter race expected as Tanzania prepares for 2025 elections

Dar es Salaam. The early months of 2025 have witnessed significant political power plays by Tanzanian political parties, which have left analysts pondering what these movements mean for the upcoming general elections later this year.

As the nation heads towards its general election in October this year, key events involving the ruling party, CCM, and the opposition signal a dynamic political landscape that could shape the outcomes of the general election.

One of the most notable events was Chadema’s national congress, held in January, where the party chose a new chairperson, marking a new era, while ACT-Wazalendo’s leader, Ms Doroth Semu, declared the interest to challenge President Samia in the upcoming election.

In contrast, the ruling party, CCM’s January meeting also focused on finalising their preparations for the general elections, with President Samia Suluhu Hassan confirmed as the presidential candidate and Dr Emmanuel Nchimbi nominated as her running mate.

The shift in CCM’s leadership line-up, alongside strategic decisions made by opposition parties, has led to both praise and concern from political analysts about how these early power plays could impact the general elections.

Speaking to The Citizen, a political analyst at the University of Dar es Salaam, Dr Richard Mbunda, pointed out that the political strategies of Chadema and CCM in early 2025 are not only a reflection of their internal dynamics but also a significant indicator of the political tone heading into the general elections.

According to Dr Mbunda, CCM’s confirmation of Samia Suluhu Hassan as their candidate and the nomination of Nchimbi highlight the party’s attempt to maintain continuity while simultaneously signalling to voters their commitment to building a broad, inclusive leadership.

“CCM’s early moves indicate a preference for stability and experience as they prepare for the general elections. With Samia’s popularity and Nchimbi’s proven political acumen, the party is positioning itself to appeal to both seasoned voters and a younger, more diverse electorate,” he explains.

While CCM appears focused on maintaining its stronghold on power, opposition parties have shown signs of significant shifts and strategic posturing. Chadema’s recent national congress, which resulted in the election of a new chairperson, was marked by the emergence of Tundu Lissu, the former presidential candidate, as the new leader.

Mr Lissu’s return to a prominent leadership role, as he previously served as a vice chairperson-mainland, comes at a crucial time when the opposition is looking to challenge CCM’s dominance in the coming elections.

For his part, a lecturer at the Open University of Tanzania, Dr Revocatus Kabobe, noted that Chadema’s decision to hold its internal elections during this period has significant implications for the party’s credibility and its relationship with voters.

“Chadema’s leadership contest revealed the party’s commitment to democratic principles, but it also highlighted some fractures within the opposition that could be problematic when trying to present a united front against CCM,” he said.

He added, “The challenge for Chadema now is to ensure that Lissu can bring the party together and avoid the kinds of internal divisions that have plagued them in the past.”

Additionally, the entry of opposition parties like ACT-Wazalendo and their decision to challenge CCM’s dominance in the upcoming elections is another important element of the political power plays in early 2025.

Ms Dorothy Semu, the leader of ACT-Wazalendo, made a bold statement by announcing her intention to challenge President Samia Suluhu Hassan in the upcoming election.

This move has generated considerable debate about the role of opposition parties in the Tanzanian political landscape, especially as they seek to capitalise on public dissatisfaction with the current political establishment. 

Commenting about that, a political scientist at the University of Dodoma, Dr Paul Loisulie, observed that while opposition parties like ACT-Wazalendo have struggled to gain significant traction in the past, the 2025 general elections could offer them a platform to challenge the status quo.

“Semu’s announcement is indicative of the growing frustration of looking for an alternative candidate to outshine CCM. Whether ACT-Wazalendo can build on this momentum will depend on their ability to effectively mobilise voters and create a compelling alternative to CCM’s longstanding political dominance,” said Dr Loisulie.

However, the strategic moves by both CCM and the opposition raise questions about the level of political fragmentation Tanzania may experience in the coming months.

Analysts share that as the electoral campaigns intensify, the possibility of alliances or coalitions between opposition parties could become a game-changer, especially if they can present a credible challenge to CCM’s political domination.

Dr Kabobe suggested that opposition parties must carefully navigate their differences and find common ground if they hope to overcome the electoral advantage held by CCM.

“The key challenge for the opposition is unity. Historically, disunity among opposition parties has worked to CCM’s advantage. If the opposition can build a cohesive coalition, it will increase their chances of posing a serious challenge to CCM in 2025,” he said.

For CCM, the prospect of a unified opposition is a significant concern, and the party has already begun to address this by bolstering its position with strategic messaging aimed at its core supporters while appealing to undecided voters.

Dr Mbunda emphasised that the ruling party’s strategy is to leverage its established network and the growing popularity of President Samia Suluhu Hassan.

“CCM’s strength lies in its deep institutional presence and the popularity of Samia. The party has spent years building its electoral infrastructure, and now, more than ever, it’s relying on that foundation to deliver a victory in 2025,” he said.

In addition to internal dynamics, a political analyst from State University of Zanzibar, Prof Makame Ali Ussi, said external factors such as the role of social media, the economy, and the handling of key national issues will also play a crucial role in shaping the political discourse leading up to the elections.

“It’s a new world, and political parties are targeting youths who rarely attend political gatherings,” he said.

He continued: “Both CCM and the opposition have begun to adapt to the digital age by increasing their online presence and engaging with voters through social media platforms. It will be different compared to the previous elections.”

Dr Loisulie pointed out that as Tanzania approaches the general elections in 2025, it is clear that the early political power plays by both the ruling and opposition parties will set the stage for what promises to be a highly competitive electoral season.

“Whether these early moves will translate into lasting political momentum or lead to further fragmentation and division remains to be seen,” he noted.