Why Tanzania is set for record voter turnout despite tensions

Over 60 percent of Tanzanians live in villages and peri-urban communities, where voting has traditionally been high. For many, the act of voting goes beyond choosing leaders; it is seen as an affirmation of belonging and recognition in national affairs.

University of Dar es Salaam political analyst Salbinus David noted that while campaign frictions have surfaced, they are unlikely to reduce turnout.

 “Moments of disagreement and logistical concerns are not unusual in any competitive democracy,” he said. “What matters is citizens’ readiness to exercise their right to vote, and the data suggests that readiness is very high, especially outside major cities.”

INEC reports show that new voter registration far exceeded expectations. The commission initially targeted 5.58 million new voters but enrolled more than 7.64 million, 136 percent of the target.

Analysts attribute this to civic education campaigns, improved registration access, and rising interest among young and first-time voters.

State University of Zanzibar political scientist Prof Makame Ali Ussi stressed that new voters are spread across the country.

 “This is not driven by one region but a nationwide mobilisation,” he said. “Given the structure of political competition, where many councillors and MPs come from the very communities they represent, rural and peri-urban voters have strong incentives to turn up.”

He added that elections in Tanzania are as much local events as national ones, since candidates are often embedded in their communities. “This closeness creates a unique sense of accountability and recognition, which drives higher turnout,” Prof Ussi explained.

Women are also expected to play a major role. INEC data shows that 50.31 percent of registered voters are women, compared to 49.69 percent men.

Analysts say this rare gender balance highlights increasing female engagement in politics, driven by grassroots mobilisation to overcome barriers of information and transport.

Still, analysts caution against equating high registration with guaranteed participation.

Political fatigue, broken promises, and logistical hurdles could affect turnout on election day.

But experts agree that Tanzania’s electoral culture, particularly in rural areas, has consistently proven resilient.

Peace and stability remain at the heart of the national conversation.

Prof Ussi warned, however, that the language of peace should not be used to silence debate.

 “In a democracy, peace means resolving differences through ballots, not conflict,” he said.

Mr David added that the credibility of institutions will be critical.

“As long as citizens believe the process is fair, their vote respected, and their voices heard, they will turn out in large numbers,” he said.

Digital platforms are also shaping the political narrative, especially in cities.  But University of Dar es Salaam lecturer Sylvester Kweka warned against overstating their influence.

 “Social media reflects a narrow, urban demographic,” he said.

“In rural areas, where most Tanzanians live, politics is still conducted face-to-face. People know their candidates personally and engage directly, and that is what resonates with them.”

He cautioned political parties not to rely too heavily on online campaigns.

“Social media can amplify voices, but without strong grassroots mobilisation it risks becoming an echo chamber,” he said.

With weeks remaining, the 2025 election is shaping up as a test of Tanzania’s democratic maturity. Rising voter registration, gender balance, and strong civic culture suggest that turnout could be one of the defining features of the polls.