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Tanzania leverages deals to challenge Kenya’s avocado export dominance
Baskets with avocado on a supermarket showcase, close-up, organic and natural food product.
What you need to know:
- Tanzania’s exports to India overshadowed Kenya’s 9,216 kilograms of avocado traded in the market at the time- placing Tanzania, as a top exporter to India.
Nairobi. Tanzania is leveraging trade deals and shorter routes to tap booming emerging markets like Indian to push its fast growing avocado production rates into the global market as Kenya’s ‘green gold’ exports falter amid Red Sea crisis.
As geopolitical tensions in the Red Sea continue to disrupt global trade routes, Kenya’s dominance in Africa’s avocado exports is being challenged by Tanzania, which is aggressively expanding into emerging markets like India.
The Red Sea crisis—sparked by escalating Houthi attacks on commercial vessels—has upended traditional maritime logistics, forcing shipping lines to divert around the Cape of Good Hope.
This detour has doubled transit times, mostly for Kenyan avocados headed for European markets- from 18–20 days to 40–45 days—causing shipments to arrive overripe and reducing both quality and profits.
According to Kenya’s Horticultural Crops Directorate, the country’s total horticulture exports fell by nearly 13% in 2024, with avocados listed among the most impacted products.
Tanzania—once considered a smaller player in the regional avocado trade—is now enjoying a surge in global demand linked to its strategic pivot toward non-traditional markets and is now tipped to shake up the continent’s export market.
Data from the Tanzania Horticultural Association (TAHA), a private sector association representing the Horticulture industry in Tanzania, and the World Bank shows India is emerging as a key destination - offering favourable trade agreements, including duty-free access for Tanzanian avocados- a competitive edge over other African exporters.
“The Indian market offers particularly favourable conditions for Tanzanian exporters, with shorter shipping times of 12-14 days, and Tanzania benefiting from duty exemptions, while competitors like Kenya face a 30% customs duty on CIF value,” TAHA’s Chief Executive Officer, Jacqueline Mkindi said during the release of sector statistics in Tanzania.
Despite the Red Sea challenges, Tanzania's avocado exports have remained relatively stable, with the country considering using the Dar es Salaam route instead of Mombasa which it says could save exporters approximately $2,500 per shipment.
According to TAHA, India(30 percent) is now the second largest market for Tanzania’s avocados after Europe(40 percent), with the Middle East at 19 percent as markets in South Africa, Kenya and China have a combined control of 11 percent of the trade. Tanzanian avocado exports to India soared to 3.2 million kilograms valued at approximately $4.9 million in 2023, more than doubling from the previous year’s 1.5 million kilograms, according to World Bank’s data in the World Integrated Trade Solutions portal.
Tanzania’s exports to India overshadowed Kenya’s 9,216 kilograms of avocado traded in the market at the time- placing Tanzania, as a top exporter to India.
“The sector is growing rapidly. If we take care of it and are careful with our decisions and strategies, Tanzania will be able to lead Africa and achieve a sustainable economy,” said Mkindi.
Over the last five years, TAHA statistics released in April show the country’s avocado exports have increased 74 percent from 15,432 tons in 2020/2021 to 26,826 tons in 2022/2023 valued at $77.3 million.
Tanzania’s exports are estimated to reach 31,950 tons with a 20 percent annual production growth volume at 195,000 tons in the 2023-2024 financial year.
Tanzania’s long-term production is projected at 2.29 million tons by 2035/36, with potential export revenues climbing to $2.8 billion- largely driven by India, the United Arab Emirates, and newer markets in Southeast Asia.
Major avocado producing regions in Tanzania include Njombe known for Hass and Fuerte varieties, Iringa, Mbeya, Arusha and Tanga, which is an emerging region.
Among major avocado farms in Tanzania is Africado, a pioneer commercial avocado producer that manages 137 hectares of land and partners with over 2,200 smallholder farmers.
Other big farms are Rungwe Avocado Company, which sources avocados from approximately 3,600 outgrowers and Lupembe Avocado Farm, which covers 300 acres and focuses on cultivating and marketing organic avocados.
Early April, Tanzania's Minister of Agriculture, Hussein Bashe when he held discussions with top executives of Cereals and Other Produce Regulatory Authority, Tanzania Horticulture Association (TAHA) and the Avocado Society of Tanzania (ASTA), affirmed the government's commitment to continue enabling small-scale farmers to directly access international markets.
"The Government will continue to support the efforts of local farmers and entrepreneurs so that they grow commercially and ultimately become a vital and strong link in promoting and developing the avocado sector in the country," said Bashe.
Kenya, Africa’s largest avocado exporter by volume, shipped approximately 122 million kilograms of avocados in 2023- largely supplied by smallholder farmers.
A report by the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA), estimates avocado production in Kenya to have declined by 11.2 per cent to 562 thousand metric tons in 2024.
“This downturn is largely attributed to reduced rainfall, though export controls may have marginally impacted production as well,” said the USDA report.
South Africa is ranked the continent’s second-largest avocado exporter shipping 70.9 million kilograms but ranks top in terms of total export value at $144.4 million- due to focus on premium exports.
South Africa, which gained entry into India’s market in April 2024, has remained largely insulated from the Red Sea fallout due to its existing reliance on shipping routes around the Cape.
