Dakar/London. Ghana's state-run artisanal gold exporter is preparing to shift cargoes to alternative refining hubs if flight disruptions to the United Arab Emirates persist, two sources with knowledge of the matter said, as the Iran conflict exposes Africa's dependence on Dubai.
Physical gold flows through Dubai — a major global trading centre supplying Switzerland, Hong Kong and India — have been disrupted for seven days as the U.S.–Israeli attack on Iran spilled into neighbouring countries, grounding the majority of air transport in Dubai.
For Ghana, Africa's biggest and the world's sixth-largest gold producer, Dubai normally refines around 80% of output from its vast artisanal and small-scale mining (ASM) sector.
GoldBod, sole official buyer and exporter of Ghana's ASM gold since its creation last year, has already drafted contingency routes outside the UAE, though it has yet to feel any direct impact, said a senior GoldBod official, without disclosing where those routes are.
Potential alternative refining centres for Ghana include Shanghai and refining hubs in India, although going there would be more costly, gold traders and precious metals analysts said.
Record-high bullion prices and centralisation of trade via GoldBod boosted Ghana's official annual ASM production by 63% last year to 96 metric tons of gold worth $15.8 billion at current prices, or 52% of the country's total output.
The company expects little disruption to actual trade, given longstanding interest from rival buyers, said the GoldBod official, who requested anonymity because he was not authorised to speak to media.
"There is always a market for gold. We have people lined up who have been knocking for years, some even ready to pay a premium."
Gold travels by plane due to its high value-to-weight ratio, but with traffic at Dubai airport, normally the world’s busiest, at about 25% of normal levels, priority is being given to passengers and essential cargo such as pharmaceuticals.
"When flights do start up, the early ones are likely to be carrying perishable goods rather than high value," said StoneX analyst Rhona O'Connell.
In case of prolonged Middle East conflict, GoldBod's contingency plans for gold will be crucial to minimise knock-on effects on the economies of Ghana and other African countries.
"A no-fly zone declaration would affect us big time — with no trade and no foreign exchange. The local currency may be affected with its economic consequences," said a source at a Ghanaian ASM gold miner, who did not wish to be named.
So far, some airlines have only extended flight suspensions in the region for several days, while Emirates airline is already operating some flights, hoping to return to 100% within days.
CURBING ILLICIT FLOWS
ASM, which accounts for only 20% of global mined gold supply but provides a lifeline to millions of miners and their families, remains difficult for many refineries to handle due to concerns over traceability and compliance.
A sizeable share of Africa's poorly regulated artisanal gold was in previous years said to be funnelled illicitly to the UAE, with authorities in Ghana and the UAE making efforts to curb these flows.
For Ghana's GoldBod, the effort is still a work in progress as it continues reforming the sector, channelling more ASM gold into formal supply routes, while surging prices are encouraging informal mining that is polluting rivers and threatening cocoa farms.
Now, as the flight disruption hits both legal and opaque gold flows, more opportunities to challenge the latter are emerging.
"While the situation in the Middle East is undeniably tragic, it also creates a moment to disrupt the unwanted illicit flows that have long fuelled instability throughout Africa, particularly those driven by criminal and non-state actors," Ruth Crowell, chief executive of the London Bullion Market Association (LBMA), told Reuters.
In Ghana, the ASM sector is now one of the most regulated in the region after GoldBod's creation last year. The country plans to channel 127 tons of ASM gold into formal export routes.
As part of that effort, Rand Refinery, Africa's largest, partnered, opens new tab with a Ghanaian refinery in January to support GoldBod with responsible local ASM refining.
The LBMA hopes that the Middle East disruption will now create conditions for more such partnerships across Africa.
Responsible market participants will "reassess their supply chains and make informed decisions about where to source and send their material," Crowell said.
