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Mahama’s second coming and the headache ahead in Ghana

John Mahama gestures during the swearing-in ceremony for his second term. PHOTO | COURTESY

John Dramani Mahama, 66, has tried twice to reclaim the presidency of Ghana. On his third attempt, he won, largely on the back of his predecessor's failure to tame the West African country's economic meltdown.

On Tuesday, January 7, he took the oath of office, vowing to right many wrongs in what he described as a new beginning.

"In the last few years, we have moved from crisis to crisis, but there is hope on the horizon. Today should mark the beginning of a new opportunity – an opportunity for us to make a difference in our governance and economic management," Mahama told a crowd including other leaders from across the continent, in Accra on Tuesday. 

“We shall reset our dear nation, Ghana,” he added, but clarified it will need national unity including from opponents. 

Mahama had been voted out of office in 2016 by what was then the highest margin in the post-independence history of Ghana amid corruption scandals and an energy crisis that had crippled the country.

This time around, he won 56.55 per cent of the total valid votes cast in the December 2024 election, according to the country's electoral commission, the largest margin of victory in a Ghanaian election since 1996. 

The turnout was 60.9 per cent, defeating Vice President Mahamudu Bawumia, who immediately accepted the result. Bawumia had been vice president to outgoing president Nana Akufo-Addo.

But Mahama’s honeymoon will be short. 

According to a report by the research network Afrobarometer, the country was on the wrong track and citizens were attracted to campaign messages that focused on running a lean government and boosting the troubled economy.

Mahama promised to tackle youth unemployment, inflation, debt and unlock the country's economic potential.

Ghana, one of Africa's most indebted countries, is due to receive $3 billion from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to cushion some sectors of the economy.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has disbursed about $1.9 billion to support the country's economic recovery since Ghana signed up to the programme in 2022.

Mahama, who became president after the death of President John Evans Atta Mills in July 2012 and served until 2016, is returning to office in a country facing increasing poverty. 

According to a multidimensional poverty index, two out of five Ghanaians are generally poor.

According to a World Bank report, multidimensional poverty is widespread among children under the age of 15. Rural-urban disparities remain a challenge, with multidimensional poverty rates in urban areas (27 per cent) less than half those in rural Ghana (64.6 per cent).

According to the Ghana Statistical Service, the rapid depreciation of the Ghana cedi against major trading currencies such as the US dollar has contributed to poverty.

But the biggest problem is public debt.

The country had a high public debt of about 79.6 per cent of its gross domestic product (GDP), owing about $36.1 billion. 

The public debt is estimated to reach $80.54 billion by 2029.

Ghana's unemployment rate was 3.60 per cent in 2023, up from 3.50 per cent in 2022. Ghana's unemployment rate has fluctuated over the years, reaching an all-time high of 10.50 per cent in 2000 and a record low of 2.20 per cent in 2013.

Prof Smart Smah, a sociologist at the Open University of Nigeria, says Ghana must harness the skills of its educated youth to reverse unemployment, or it will struggle to tame the masses.

Last year, as a wave of Gen Z agitation swept across most of Africa, some young people in Ghana took to the streets to demand better governance. It could become more frequent.

"The increase in secondary school enrolments has also put pressure on already overburdened tertiary institutions," says Festus Kwesu, a social commentator on West African politics. 

For now, Mahama and his National Democratic Congress (NDC) are enjoying huge popularity. But it could turn against him as he comes under pressure to meet voters' expectations.

His party is comfortable in the legislature, one seat short of the two-thirds majority needed to pass laws, and approve budgets, contracts and policies.