Museveni succession question: No breath of fresh heir

The BTI Index analyses and evaluates how developing countries and countries in transition go about changes aimed at moving them towards greater democracy and free market economies.

Countries are assessed based on performances in 17 indicators. This includes, among others, political participation, the rule of law, stability of democratic institutions and political, and social integration.

ALSO READ: Museveni's downfall is written in Muhoozi's 'crazy' X posts

Gen Muhoozi: The gamble that didn't pay offV

How Museveni, Muhoozi are classic chalk, cheese

Dr Livingstone Sewanyana, the executive director of the Foundation for Human Rights Initiative (FHRI), dismissed the conclusions of the Index as “highly speculative.”

“All indicators speak to the possibility of military rule after Museveni. Of course, one can argue that it will be Muhoozi, but again, that is also speculation,” Dr Sewanyana told Saturday Monitor.

However, Mr David Lewis Rubongoya, the secretary general of the National Unity Platform (NUP), described the conclusions of the Index as accurate.

“I agree with that Index. It worries everybody to see what is happening in this country and the future looks very bleak and predictable,” Mr Rubongoya told Monitor.

Mr Moses Byaruhanga, the senior presidential advisor-in-charge of political mobilisation, sees things a bit differently.

He downplays the conclusions, saying a legal framework for the succession is already in place, which would minimise chances of turbulence. The problem, he argues, is that it is lost in noises around who will be President after Mr Museveni leaves.

“The issue of succession was resolved in the Constitution. Every five years you have presidential elections. That is succession. However, this matter is confused with who will be the President of Uganda after President Museveni,” Mr Byaruhanga says.

Sejusa’s letter

Gen Muhoozi’s ambitions were a rumour, until May 2013 when Gen (rtd) David Sejusa, then coordinator of Intelligence Services, wrote to the Director General of the Internal Security Organisation (ISO), alluding to the existence of a scheme, “the Muhoozi Project.”

Mr Sejusa claimed it was through the said project that Mr Museveni was planning to make his son, then a Brigadier in the Uganda People’s Defence Forces (UPDF), succeed him as President.

He added that senior officials in both the government and military who were opposed were to be taken out of action to pave the way for Muhoozi’s ascent.

Mr Sejusa was forced to flee into exile, while Daily Monitor, two of its sister radio stations, KFM and Dembe FM, and the Red Pepper, were the subject of police raids and subsequently closed, albeit temporarily, for reporting on the matter.

The claims, however, prompted Mr Museveni to deny that such a scheme existed.

“That man is an army officer […] certainly he will not be interested in politics in the short run,” Mr Museveni said in a September 2013 interview.

Whereas Mr Museveni’s comments quietened things down a bit, the subject got back on the table early in 2017. This was after Mr Museveni’s son-in-law, Mr Odrek Rwabwogo, penned a missive in the State-owned New Vision newspaper in which he called for economic reforms and internal democracy in the ruling NRM party. This precipitated demands for a transparent debate on the succession question. Yet, speaking in Luweero in March 2017, Mr Museveni insisted that the time was not right.

“Right now our focus, my focus, is eliminating poverty. When the right time comes, we will talk about those other things. Not that it [succession] is not important, but there is a time for it. We will get time and discuss it,” Mr Museveni said.

However, in July the same year, the late John Nagenda, then a senior presidential advisor on the media, urged the NRM and Mr Museveni to name a successor. Mr Nagenda argued that the country would be plunged into turmoil in the event that the President died or left office without naming a successor.

“We have got to find somebody, the State has got to find somebody who will succeed Museveni because even if he hasn’t already succeeded (him), it will mean that many people would have heard it and may be they will be ashamed to start killing or whatever it is,” Mr Nagenda said.

Ambitions to the fore

At the time Nagenda made his comments, there was no demonstrable evidence that Gen Muhoozi harboured presidential ambitions. But the birth in April 2022 of the MK Movement, a group of people rallying behind the First Son, whose initials form the acronym of the loose entity, markedly changed the picture.

The MK Movement threw parties—headlined by an ostentatious display of power—to commemorate Muhoozi’s 48th birthday. This was across diverse parts of the country and included, for good measure, a birthday run staged in Kampala.

The First Son also presided over the “Muhoozi Project Tournament” in Arua on October 22, 2022 as the strongest indicator yet of his ambitions was dropped. If he was not clear enough, Muhoozi used an October 27, 2022 post on X, formerly Twitter, to remove any ambiguities.

“The only way I can repay my great mother is by being President of Uganda! And I shall definitely do it!” read the post that, unsurprisingly, went viral.

The BTI Index is now warning that the country is at crossroads on account of those ambitions.

“Internal divisions within the ruling NRM party further compound the potential for a political crisis,” it further says.

Mr Byaruhanga, however, insists that “the NRM has mechanisms for arriving at a presidential candidate.” He adds that “the moment the NRM will not offer President Museveni as its presidential candidate, Ugandans will elect a President of their choice.” Yet despite such reassuranc[1]es, the report suggests the prevailing situation poses, “significant challenges to a peaceful and democratic transfer of power.”

The Index says the situation calls for a national dialogue through which all key stakeholders carry out a revaluation and restructuring of the political system.

“At this juncture, only dialogue can redirect Uganda’s political trajectory toward a more positive course,” the report says.

The erosion that the Index was alluding to included the July 12, 2005 vote that led to the scrapping of the presidential term limits and the December 20, 2017 vote that led to the removal of both the lower and upper age limits for those interested in standing for the office of president.

Hypotheses

A 2021 research paper jointly authored and published by the Great Lakes Institute for Strategic Studies (GLISS) and Innovations for Democratic Engagement and Action (IDEA), much like its title, sketched Uganda’s political transition scenarios in 2026 and beyond. The first scenario was christened the ‘Flying Crane’ scenario.

‘[It] envisages a Uganda that emerges from the current whirlwinds into a fully-fledged democratic and peaceful country where there is shared prosperity. Named after Uganda’s national emblem—the Crested crane, the Flying Crane scenario is our desirable scenario.

This scenario envisages a stable, democratic and prosperous Uganda emerging from an organised and managed transition of power from Museveni and the current order created over the last three decades,” the paper reads.

It adds: “Driven by the broken promises of the 1995 Constitution, the ‘Flying Crane scenario’ envisages a new national consensus underpinned by the desire to build a stronger foundation for democracy, socio-economic justice, respect for human dignity and the rule of law, and shared economic prosperity.”

The second scenario titled ‘Storm in the Tea Cup’ proffers two starkly different outcomes. Firstly, “the Ugandan story continues to be shaped by three dominant narratives. The optimists tell a story of a Uganda that is democratising, economically transforming, socially prospering, and where peace and security reign.

This group, largely comprised of diehards within the NRM group, avid Musevenists and the Descendants of the Resistance Army (DRA) point to symbolic regular elections, positive economic growth figures and a UPDF projecting its muscle within the country and across the region as evidence of a transformed Uganda.”

Secondly, and on the extreme end of the spectrum, there are Ugandans who see doom and gloom and a future that is highly unpredictable.

This category of Ugandans point to the extreme violence and brutality that mar elections, the entrenched regime election rigging machinery, the deteriorating economic conditions, the worsening law and order situation and the breakdown in public service delivery as evidence of reversals that are a direct consequence of Museveni’s over stay in power. The continuing kidnappings of young political activists and those caught in the crossfire by elements within the security forces and regime-aligned militias, continuous breakdown in law and order, as well as the extrajudicial killings of regime opponents and opposition sympathisers will combine to feed into the pessimistic outlook of many Ugandans.”

The third scenario titled ‘The Warrior and Mad King’, is, as the name suggests, grim.

“It's timeline spills beyond 2026. It is the least desirable, but perhaps the most likely scenario, given Uganda’s political journey since the post-election violence of 2006,” the paper reads.

It adds: “The ‘Warrior Mad King’ scenario is premised on the apparent evidence that: i) Mr Museveni’s mental programming is to be the president of Uganda for life and he will be on the ballot as long as there are elections; ii) he does not see anybody capable of leading Uganda other than himself.

Right or wrong, he sees himself on a selfless mission of transforming Uganda and believes that no other Ugandan can manage; iii) he alone should determine who may succeed him whenever his tenure terminates whether by not offering himself to contest in future elections, by losing an election or even by the unavoidable course of nature.”

What they say

‘‘All indicators speak to the possibility of military rule after Museveni.  Of course one can argue that it will be Muhoozi, but again, that is also speculation,” Dr Livingstone Ssewanyana,Executive Director, Foundation for Human Rights Initiative.

“I agree with that Index. It worries everybody to see what is happening in this country and the future looks very bleak and predictable,” David Lewis Rubongoya, Secretary General, National Unity Platform party.

“The only way I can repay my great mother is by being President of Uganda! And I shall definitely do it!” Gen Muhoozi Kainerugaba’s October 27, 2022, post on X

“The issue of succession was resolved in the Constitution. Every five years, you have presidential elections. That is succession. However, this matter is confused with who will be the President of Uganda after President Museveni,” Moses Byaruhanga, senior presidential advisor-in-charge of political mobilisation.