As the news of the death of opposition leader Raila Odinga spread on Wednesday, African leaders sent their messages of condolence to the Kenyan government and the people, eulogising the departed former prime minister as a pan-African statesman who championed democracy on the continent.
While most East African leaders did so, Felix Tshisekedi of the Democratic Republic of Congo — seen by many as Odinga’s friend — curiously did not publicly offer his condolences, nor did his government.
News of Odinga’s death came as Kinshasa was seething over a meeting of Congolese opposition figures in Nairobi on Tuesday, led by former president Joseph Kabila, who, despite facing a death sentence for treason and other serious charges, continues walking around freely.
On Tuesday, Kabila and several Congolese opposition figures met in Nairobi for a conclave to “reflect on the DRC”. Those in attendance included leaders who have supported the AFC/M23 rebellion in eastern Congo, such as Franck Diongo.
Former prime minister Augustin Matata Ponyo, who was also recently sentenced to ten years of hard labour for embezzlement of public funds, also attended the Nairobi retreat. Others were Moise Nyarugabo, Jose Malik and Seth Kikuni.
Opposition leaders Moise Katumbi, Martin Fayulu and Jean-Marc Kabund, were absent at the meeting in Nairobi. Some of them have been engaging with President Tshisekedi in an attempt to build a national coalition and unite the country.
According to his allies, Kabila may be doing the same to counter Tshisekedi’s move.
In response to the meeting, Jacquemain Shabani, the Deputy Prime Minister in charge of the interior and security, described it as a “black mass organised by convicted criminals against our country.”
He added that the Congolese government would “take action against the actors and initiators of this meeting, if it is proven that it is preparing to destabilise the institutions of the republic.”
Sharpening tools
The Congolese justice system has convicted Kabila in absentia of treason, crimes against humanity, torture, rape, and participating in the insurrectionary movement AFC/M23. He was sentenced to death.
Depending on whom you ask, Kabila is sharpening his political tools in preparation for a run that would unsettle President Tshisekedi’s administration.
Analysts say Kabila, who ruled the Congo for 18 years, is meeting his allies in Nairobi to pool resources.
According to diplomatic sources who spoke to The EastAfrican, Kenya has invited Kabila and his political allies to hold meetings, offering them protection on the condition that they engage in dialogue for the Congo.
The Congolese Deputy Prime Minister said that Kenya “has been sufficiently identified in terms of its ability to host meetings that project chaos in Congo.”
“We are monitoring this closely,” he said, adding that the government was preparing a “response”.
Frosty relations
Kinshasa’s diplomatic ties with Kenya have been strained due to Nairobi hosting the M23 rebels, who launched the Congo River Alliance (AFC is the French acronym) in December 2023, seeking to unseat President Tshisekedi.
At the time, President William Ruto said Kenya would not gag anyone for expressing themselves and declined Kinshasa’s request to have the M23 leaders extradited.
In response, DRC has stalled in accrediting the two envoys Kenya sent to Kinshasa, weakening its diplomatic presence in the vast country.
This time, Kenyan government officials have been reluctant to speak on the record, but a diplomat told The EastAfrican that they are aware of the Congolese politicians’ meetings for which Kenya would provide adequate security.
The Ministry of Foreign and Diaspora Affairs declined to comment on the matter.
Doha deal
Meanwhile, on Tuesday, Congolese officials and the M23 rebel group signed an agreement to monitor a potential “permanent ceasefire”, which could lead to an end to fighting in eastern Congo.
This agreement marks progress in the Qatar-mediated negotiations, following the missed deadline of August 18 to finalise a peace deal.
Since April, Qatar has hosted multiple rounds of direct talks between the Congolese government and the rebels, but so far, these have largely dealt with preconditions and confidence-building measures.
The ceasefire monitoring agreement was one of two key steps to complete before talks towards a comprehensive peace agreement could begin.
The second was a deal on a prisoner-of-war exchange that was signed in September, though the exchange itself has not happened.
State funeral
Kenya will hold a State funeral for Odinga on Friday, an event expected to draw an array of regional and international leaders paying tribute to one of Africa’s most enduring political figures.
Among those who will be closely watched is President Tshisekedi, whose presence — or absence — could carry political undertones amid the recent diplomatic tension between Nairobi and Kinshasa.
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