How Kenya anti-government protests affects EAC economy

Some Arusha-based transporters suspended sending their lorries to Kenya this week for fear of being caught up in the chaos.

"We suspended trips to Nairobi for three days from Wednesday", said Ms Zainabu Mnjela, the CEO of Sunvic transport company.

She said when reached out by The Citizen on the crisis: "We could not risk and instead ordered that our trucks parked at the border."

The lorries from Sunvic which are often hired to transport foodstuffs and other raw materials were parked at the Namanga and Holili border posts.

"We feared they could be caught up in the chaos. We did not want to take the risks," she said, adding that the situation has normalised as from yesterday.

Ms Mnjela, who is the chairperson of a transporters association, noted that they were not sure of the situation in the neighbouring country.

Sunvic like other transport firms in Arusha and the northern regions had been worried on the safety of their vehicles transporting goods to Kenya for months.

Tanzania's northern neighbour plunged in chaos from March this year over the rising cost of living and a host of other grievances by the opposition.

Demonstrations, which are allowed under the Kenya's Constitution, have this time around proved to be more destructive and deadly since they were orchestrated.

Reports had it that at least 30 lives have been lost in different parts of the country, including the capital Nairobi, the destination of many lorries loaded with goods from Tanzania.

Besides deaths, the violent protests have impacted heavily on the economy with one business group claiming at least $21 million is lost each day.

Traders interviewed said they had been closely following the trends in Nairobi solely for the safety of their drivers, vehicles and cargo in case of such protests.

Although Namanga is one of the five official border crossing between Tanzania and Kenya, it is seen as key trade route in the East African Community (EAC) region.

The expansive town hosts a unified and shared One Stop Border Posts (OSBP) which, analysts say, has boosted cross border trade between the two states.

The busy border crossing has, at times, defined the competition and rivalry among traders and business people of the two countries.

Namanga often had its fair share of 'mini riots' mainly by hawkers on the Kenyan side that were associated with trade disputes between Tanzania and Kenya.

The two neighbours and largest economies in the EAC bloc, however, agreed to cement their trade and investment ties in May 2021.

Trucks heading to Kenya from Tanzania are often loaded with maize and other foodstuffs and lately by coal and timber from the southern regions.

Those originating from Nairobi to Arusha and other destinations in Tanzania are chiefly loaded with the merchandise.

The symbiotic relationship between communities of the sides of the border is seen with people doing their daily purchases at will.

Although traders from Tanzania had been worried by the recent clashes in Kenya, Kenyans would suffer the same fate in case of a border closure as a result of the skirmishes.

The mayhem in the EAC largest economy would, according to analysts, have a wider impact in the region due to Kenya's status as a trade and transport hub.

However, a senior lecturer at the Centre for Foreign Relations in Dar es Salaam, Mr Innocent Shoo said Tanzania would not necessarily suffer much from political disturbances in Kenya.

"It is true Kenya is the largest economy in the EAC. But Tanzania is not that far behind," he told The Citizen on phone.

He said the two countries are close competitors in tourism, travel and maritime industry. The countries likely to suffer most are Uganda, South Sudan and Rwanda.

The director of the Arusha-based Jackpot Safaris and Tours, Mr Andrew Malalika said the unrest in Kenya can impact on the flow of tourists to Tanzania.

Some of the visitors to the country cross overland from Nairobi but, according to him, he has not heard of complaints after this week's protests.

He said he was optimistic that Kenyans would sort out their political differences before spilling and impact the economies of the EAC partner states and beyond.

His remarks were echoed by a local maize trader, Mr Lucas Mtenga who said maize exports to Kenya continued unabated for the better part of this week despite earlier fears.

"I have not heard cases of lorries being stopped from carrying maize into Kenya. We are still monitoring the situation," he pointed out.

Although the situation at the busy border crossing was calm this time around, it was a bit different at the start of protests called by the opposition leader Raila Odinga early this year.

During the maiden protests in March, several lorries from both sides of the borderline were stranded for fear of violence which rocked several towns.

"There were no trucks loaded with goods crossing the border at that time. There was tension on the Kenyan side," said Ismael Abdi, the chairman of the Tanzania Freight Forwarders Association at Namanga.

There had not been any reports of protests on the Kenyan side of Namanga by yesterday as traffic has been flowing smoothly.

Namanga is not only the busiest cross border trade routes between Tanzania and Kenya but also linking Tanzania with the countries beyond Nairobi.

At different times in recent years, the town has been characterised by long queues of stranded lorries, especially from Tanzania, carrying fresh produce to Kenya.

The border line was plunged into confusion during the height of Covid-19 pandemic as traffic movement was restricted, impacting on the maize exports from Tanzania.

The EAC secretariat has to date not issued any statement on the tense situation related to the disputed General Election held last year in its founder member state.

The only regional organisation that sent its emissaries to Nairobi this week is the African Court on Human and People's Rights (AfCHPR), a continental judicial organ based in Arusha.

The team, led by the President of the court, Lady Justice Imani Aboud, the former Judge of the High Court of Tanzania, went there for a different mission but with a bearing on democracy.

The high-powered delegation was in Nairobi to convince the leaders of the East African nation to allow its citizens to file cases directly before the court.

The delegation is scheduled to pay courtesy calls on various dignitaries in Kenya including President William Ruto and others but no reports have confirmed if, indeed, the meeting took place.

Kenya is among many African countries which - despite having signed the protocol that established the court - is yet to accede to a provision that allows its nationals or NGOs to file cases before it.

Currently, only eight states have deposited the Declaration allowing individuals and NGOs direct access to the Court. They are Burkina Faso, The Gambia, Ghana, Guinea Bissau,Malawi, Mali, Niger and Tunisia.

Tanzania, the Court's host nation, as well as Rwanda, Cote d'Ivoire and Benin which had earlier signed the declaration, pulled out between 2016 and 2020, citing a number of reasons.

The mission to Nairobi this time around, however, came at a time of protests by the opposition over the rising cost of living and alleged inconsistencies in last year's General Election.

Scores of people have lost lives, many more injured and properties worth millions of shillings destroyed since the protests spearheaded by the opposition leader, Raila Odinga began in March this year.