30 Million deaths projected globally by 2100 due to heat and pollution
What you need to know:
- Scientists say that as temperature levels hit their highest peak in 2024, approximately 30 million people are projected to perish yearly by 2100 owing to extreme temperatures and air pollution.
A new study has revealed a stark increase in global mortality due to extreme temperatures and air pollution, with projections suggesting a severe escalation by the end of the century. Researchers analysed data spanning from 2000 to 2090 in ten-year intervals, uncovering alarming trends that call for urgent action.
Dr Andrea Pozzer, group leader at the Max Planck Institute for Chemistry in Mainz and adjunct associate professor at The Cyprus Institute in Nicosia, Cyprus, explained the study’s findings:
“In 2000, around 1.6 million people died annually due to extreme temperatures, both cold and heat. By the end of the century, in the most probable scenario, this figure climbs to 10.8 million—a roughly seven-fold increase. For air pollution, annual deaths in 2000 stood at approximately 4.1 million. By the century’s close, this number rises to 19.5 million, representing a five-fold increase.”
Regional disparities in mortality rates
The study highlighted significant regional variations in future mortality trends. South and East Asia are projected to experience the steepest increases, largely due to aging populations and persistent air pollution. Conversely, high-income regions, including Western Europe, North America, Australasia, and Asia Pacific, are expected to witness a shift. In these areas, deaths related to extreme temperatures are anticipated to outpace those caused by air pollution.
This trend is already emerging in countries such as the United States, England, France, Japan, and New Zealand, and is expected to expand to Central and Eastern Europe, including Poland and Romania, as well as parts of South America, such as Argentina and Chile. By 2090, temperature-related health risks are predicted to surpass air pollution impacts for one-fifth of the global population.
Urgent call for action
The findings underline the pressing need for comprehensive measures to mitigate these public health risks. “Climate change is not just an environmental issue; it is a direct threat to public health,” said Dr Pozzer. Jean Sciare, director of the Climate and Atmosphere Research Center (CARE-C) at The Cyprus Institute and a key contributor to the study, echoed this urgency:
“These findings highlight the critical importance of implementing decisive mitigation measures now to prevent future loss of life.”
As global temperatures rise and air quality deteriorates, this study serves as a clarion call for governments and policymakers to prioritise strategies that address both climate change and public health, ensuring a sustainable and healthier future for all.
