Beijing pressures Islamabad to permit its protection of CPEC and Chinese nationals in Pakistan

Pakistan’s inability to ensure adequate safety and security for Chinese nationals has become a contentious issue in the bilateral relations between the two countries.

Reports indicate that Beijing is urging Islamabad to permit its soldiers to take a leading role in counter-terrorism efforts within Pakistan to avert further attacks on Chinese nationals and projects, especially in Balochistan.

Moreover, there is a proposal for an expanded role for private security firms, enabling Beijing to set up security companies or ‘market-oriented’ Sino-Pakistani joint security forces. Analysts believe these actions represent China's attempts to establish a significant security presence in Pakistan.

Although there has not yet been an official confirmation from the Pakistani government regarding the proposal, rejecting Beijing’s demands will be difficult for Islamabad, as its economic survival heavily depends on China’s implicit financial support.

Allowing Chinese soldiers to operate within the country, particularly in a sensitive area like Balochistan, would mean that Pakistan’s military establishment would lose all relevance.

Furthermore, Beijing will not only deploy soldiers to protect the lives of its nationals in Pakistan, but it may also carry out operations against groups or individuals it perceives as dangerous or hostile to Chinese interests.

While Islamabad has denied the existence of any such plans, Beijing has openly expressed its frustration with the incompetence of the Pakistani military and decided to take matters into its own hands. Some reports suggest that Islamabad has considered allowing Chinese soldiers from private firms instead of the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) troops to avoid embarrassment.

Following the last attack on Chinese nationals in Pakistan in October 2024, Beijing pressured Islamabad to conduct a joint counterterrorism military exercise, ‘Warrior-VIII,’ in Balochistan, which lasted several days. The drills took place from late November to mid-December and focused on “joint counterterrorism clean-up and strike operations.” 

The last such exercise occurred in 2019, with the drills from last year marking the eighth between the two nations. 

Notably, in October, a suicide bombing near Karachi Airport resulted in the deaths of three people, including two Chinese nationals, and left 17 others injured. On November 5, a security guard shot and injured two Chinese nationals working at a textile mill in Karachi, Pakistan.

 In March 2024, a suicide car bombing in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa killed five Chinese workers and their local driver who were en route to the Dasu hydropower project.

 Since the official launch of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) in 2015, which is the flagship project of President Xi Jinping’s global Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), the total number of Chinese casualties in targeted attacks in Pakistan has climbed to at least 21.

In 2022, an explosion devastated a van at the University of Karachi, killing three Chinese educators and their Pakistani driver. In 2021, a bus blast in northern Pakistan resulted in the deaths of 13 people, including nine Chinese nationals.

After the October 2024 attack, Pakistan announced in a joint statement with China that it had agreed to enhance security for Chinese citizens and projects in Pakistan, as Beijing called for urgent security measures due to a surge in militant threats.

Last year, the Ambassador of China to Pakistan, Jiang Zaidong, issued a rare warning, accusing Islamabad of ongoing security failures regarding Chinese workers.  Analysts noted that these comments reflected China’s growing frustration with the security risks its workers face in Pakistan.

Jiang stated that the violence was “unacceptable” and creates “a constraint” on Chinese investments in Pakistan under the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI).

Additionally, Jiang referenced suicide car bombings in March and October 2024, which resulted in the deaths of seven Chinese personnel. These remarks represented a rare public criticism of Islamabad and a clear sign of growing frustration in Beijing against Pakistan military’s incompetence in safeguarding Chinese nationals.

 Furthermore, the Foreign Ministry of Pakistan described the Chinese envoy’s statements as “perplexing” and “inconsistent” with the diplomatic traditions between the two countries, marking an unprecedented response. 

Amid escalating attacks, China proposed a ‘joint security mechanism’ with Pakistan last year, believing that the existing level of cooperation between the two nations was insufficient to build trust on security matters.

Reports from Pakistani media indicated that this proposal was discussed during Chinese Premier Li Qiang’s visit to Islamabad in September 2024. Beijing emphasized the significance of this mechanism for Pakistan to secure vital infrastructure and energy agreements. 

Notably, China has become increasingly outspoken in criticizing Pakistan for its failure to protect Chinese nationals from targeted attacks. In June 2024, President Xi cautioned Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif to ensure the safety of Chinese personnel and projects to facilitate successful bilateral business collaboration.

Furthermore, most official delegations from China have cited security concerns as a significant obstacle to advancing CPEC projects. Pakistan has become skilled at assuring China that everything is under control.

During his five-day visit to Beijing from February 4 to 8, President Asif Ali Zardari assured China that it would guarantee the safety of Chinese personnel working on infrastructure and development projects in Pakistan while seeking enhanced security and economic cooperation. 

One of the points in the Joint Communique states: “The Chinese side…expressed its willingness to provide necessary support for Pakistan’s counter-terrorism capacity building.”  While no specifics were disclosed in the communique, sources indicate that China has chosen to directly involve itself in safeguarding its citizens in Pakistan.

 More importantly, Beijing is focused on increasing its physical presence in Balochistan, which serves as the gateway to the Indian Ocean Region (IOR) for China via the Gwadar Port.

In addition to physically ensuring security for its citizens, the Chinese are also keen on closely monitoring the activities of Baloch human rights groups and their key members. Last year’s counterterrorism military exercise with Pakistani troops in Balochistan marked the first step in this direction.

The two countries are set for increased military-to-military engagement, particularly regarding counterterrorism issues.

Although Pakistan’s security establishment is hesitant to permit Chinese troops within its borders, it will likely consent to the presence of private security contractors in locations such as Gwadar Port and Karachi, potentially jeopardizing the country’s territorial sovereignty.