CPEC projects cause widespread anger and resentment among locals in PoGB

Pakistan-occupied Gilgit-Baltistan (PoGB) is bracing for fresh instability and protests as the federal government in Islamabad plans to kickstart the Maqpoon Das Special Economic Zone (SEZ) project.

This SEZ is one of nine proposed under the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) across Pakistan. 

While the Maqpoon Das SEZ should have become operational in the first phase of CPEC, there has been little progress on the project due to Pakistan’s significantly dwindling economy since 2015, leading to China’s disinterest in making new investments. 

Furthermore, the local population in PoGB opposes external Chinese projects and the increasing presence of Pakistan’s military establishment in the region. Islamabad is desperate to win the locals’ hearts and minds through major infrastructure projects and the introduction of Chinese investments.

However, Pakistan’s true intention appears to be altering population demographics, exploiting natural resources, and enforcing draconian land and criminal laws to suppress dissenting voices and civilian protests in PoGB.

With the growing Chinese presence in the region through CPEC projects and the Karakoram Highway, locals are increasingly skeptical about their future. As a result, PoGB frequently witnesses protests, and not a month goes by without local communities rising up against the ‘illegal rule’ of Pakistan.

At least 440 kilometers of the Karakoram Highway, the lifeline of CPEC, runs through PoGB, further highlighting the geo-strategic and geo-economic significance of the region.  China and Pakistan recognize the strategic importance of PoGB, which serves more military than economic purposes.

Despite CPEC being introduced as an alternative land trade corridor between the two countries, their supplies largely rely on the sea route.

 Consequently, analysts believe that Pakistan is launching new commercial projects in the region like Maqpoon Das SEZ as a pretext to expand its military and political presence while challenging India’s legitimate territorial claims on PoGB.

In 2018, Pakistani authorities razed the Thok Das and Maqpoon Das areas, destroying houses, cattle farms, and other living spaces of traditional mountain villages to construct the proposed SEZ. This led to massive protests in the region, halting the project indefinitely. Land is a precious commodity in this mountainous terrain.

The Pakistani government reportedly allocated around 500 acres for a special economic zone in the Maqpoon Das area. Since land is a valuable asset in this mountainous region, the local population fears that the CPEC-related projects will consume their lands. Locals are also unhappy with the announcement of the establishment of an SEZ on this land, as the matter of its ownership is under judicial review.

Furthermore, the introduction of new projects in PoGB, along with additional Pakistani security checkpoints and the potential deployment of Chinese soldiers for extra security, has exacerbated insecurities among local communities.

The influx of Chinese workers is just one concern for PoGB residents. They also fear that laborers from other parts of Pakistan, particularly from Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Punjab provinces, will continue to take away their jobs due to CPEC projects.

More worryingly, the region is facing a major ecological disaster because large infrastructure projects like the Diamer-Bhasha dam and Maqpoon Das SEZ are expected to create significant pollution and disrupt the entire topography of the mountainous areas. The region is already dealing with water and food shortages. With the massive influx of “outsiders” in PoGB, the local population will confront an existential crisis amid a severe shortage of essential resources.

Residents from the region have also raised concerns that the increasing influence of Chinese culture may destroy the indigenous culture and that such shifts will create and intensify rifts among local communities. Locals might face problems due to China’s open access and the potential for significant influence on the PoGB authorities.

The “non-Muslim” nature of the Chinese population may present religious challenges in the area and influence regional sentiments. There have been various incidents across Pakistan where Chinese nationals were apprehended for illegal activities such as prostitution, drug use, and financial scams. PoGB witnesses regular protests against the growing Chinese presence in the region for exploiting natural resources, including critical minerals and gemstones.

 To prevent such embarrassing episodes, Pakistani authorities have, over the decades, settled people from Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Punjab, predominantly Sunnis, to undermine the control of the peaceful Shia majority in PoGB.

Consequently, there are frequent incidents of sectarian violence in different districts of the region. Pakistan’s military has played a perilous game in PoGB by supporting Sunni Islamist groups against the local Shia leadership.

Moreover, landowners in PoGB do not receive the government-mandated compensation for relinquishing their lands for external projects.

 For instance, Pakistan compulsorily acquired the lands of local farmers for two major projects in the past: the upgradation of the 335-km-long Khunjerab-Raikot section of the Karakoram Highway (KKH) in 2007 and the realignment of a 24-km portion of KKH in 2012.  However, the landowners from both projects were never fully compensated as required by law.

Additionally, contrary to official Pakistani claims, people in PoGB are excluded from the decision-making process. Direct benefits of CPEC projects are not even shared with them, despite the region being regarded as the “entrance” to the multibillion-dollar project.

Despite several incomplete Phase One projects, Pakistan and China hastily announced Phase Two of CPEC in June 2024, focusing on the development of nine SEZs. Consequently, Maqpoon Das SEZ may see some activity in the coming months as Pakistan continues to promote CPEC as an economic game-changer to the residents of PoGB.

However, locals justifiably fear that these projects could trigger ecological disasters, demographic shifts, and land grabbing, while also threatening their unique culture. Analysts assert that over 70,000 trucks will traverse this region daily in the future, releasing significant amounts of carbon, and around 400,000 Chinese workers could potentially be involved in CPEC projects in PoGB. 

If this occurs, locals may lose their jobs and lands, along with their natural resources and legal rights to protest. This could lead to heightened resentment and anger toward Pakistani authorities and Chinese nationals in PoGB, potentially resulting in violent protests throughout the region.