A test for Tanzanian democracy

Dar es Salaam. Wednesday, November 27, 2024 marks an important day for Tanzania as millions of citizens head to the polls for the 2024 local government elections, a significant event that holds far-reaching implications for governance and democracy.

These polls, often overshadowed by the general elections, are not just about local leadership; they set the stage for next year’s General Election in which Tanzanians will elect the President, members of Parliament and councillors.

Political analysts who spoke to The Citizen have underscored the importance of Wednesday’s elections, emphasizing the necessity of citizen participation and explaining what these polls mean for Tanzania’s political landscape.

A political analyst at the Open University of Tanzania, Dr Revocatus Kabobe, emphasised that local government elections are vital because they deal directly with grassroots leadership.

According to him, these leaders play a critical role in ensuring effective service delivery and addressing community issues.

“Local government leaders are a bridge between citizens and the national government. Their decisions directly impact roads, schools, healthcare facilities and water supply systems in communities,” Dr Kabobe said.

The voting in the elections, he said, empowers citizens to hold their leaders accountable and influence how local resources are allocated and managed.

For his part, a political scientist from the University of Dodoma (Udom), Dr Paul Loisulie,  said Wednesday’s elections are a political litmus test ahead of next year’s General Election.

He added that the results will reflect the political parties’ strengths and weaknesses, providing insights into their preparedness for 2025.

“Local government elections are a rehearsal for general elections. They offer a preview of how political parties are connecting with voters and their ability to mobilise support across the country,” Dr Loisulie noted.

He said that with Chama Cha Mapinduzi (CCM) contesting in all villages, streets and hamlets and the opposition fielding candidates in only 33 percent of the electoral areas across the country, the elections will reveal the extent of CCM’s dominance and whether opposition parties can reclaim lost ground.

Dr Richard Mbunda of the University of Dar es Salaam said one of the most notable aspects of this year’s polls is the participation of opposition parties, despite ongoing grievances over fairness and transparency.

“In 2019, major opposition parties boycotted the elections, citing widespread disqualification of their candidates. This year, they have opted to stay in the race, signalising a shift in strategy,” he noted.

Dr Onesmo Kyauke, also of the University of Dar es Salaam, said boycotting elections only serves to weaken opposition parties by eroding their support base and visibility.

“By participating, opposition parties can demonstrate resilience and give their supporters a voice, even if the playing field is not level. It is a pragmatic decision to remain relevant,” he said.

However, the opposition still faces significant challenges, including resource constraints and limited candidate coverage. Their ability to make an impact in this election remains uncertain.

For a political analyst from the State University of Zanzibar (SUZA), Prof Makame Ali Ussi, the stakes in this year’s elections go beyond local governance.

He said these polls will provide a snapshot of public sentiment ahead of 2025.

“This election will reveal whether citizens are satisfied with the current leadership or if they are seeking change. It is a crucial indicator of the political climate in the country,” Prof Ussi said.

Additionally, the elections serve as an opportunity for political parties to refine their strategies, test their campaign messages and identify gaps in their outreach efforts.

However, the 2019 local government elections left a lasting mark on Tanzania’s political landscape. The opposition’s boycott allowed CCM to dominate, winning over 99 percent of the seats.

Dr Loisulie said lessons from 2019 have informed the opposition’s decision to participate this year.

“Opposition parties understand that they cannot afford another boycott. Participation is essential for maintaining political relevance and engaging with voters.”

Despite the challenges, political analysts agree that voter participation is key to the success of the local government elections.

Dr Kabobe emphasised that every vote counts, urging citizens to recognize the power of their voices.

“Voting is not just a right; it is a responsibility. By voting, citizens shape the future of their communities and the nation as a whole,” he said.

Prof Ussi echoed this sentiment, warning against voter apathy.

“When citizens fail to vote, they surrender their power to influence decisions that affect their lives. Active participation is the foundation of a thriving democracy,” he said.

Prof Ussi added that the results of the 2024 local government elections will have a ripple effect on the 2025 General Election.

For CCM, a strong performance would reaffirm its dominance and solidify its position as the leading political force. For the opposition, every seat won represents a step toward challenging CCM’s hegemony.

Dr Kyauke noted that these elections will also test the government’s commitment to democratic principles.

“The transparency and fairness of the process will determine public trust in the electoral system and set the tone for 2025.”