Battle lines drawn as Lissu eyes Chadema top post in 2025 polls

Dar es Salaam. Opposition leader Tundu Lissu’s declaration to contest for Chadema’s national chairmanship has sparked mixed reactions from political analysts, with many emphasising both the potential benefits and risks of the move.

Mr Lissu’s decision, announced in Dar es Salaam, yesterday, signals a major shift in the party’s leadership dynamics ahead of the election set for early next year as he now serves as the party’s vice chairman (Mainland).

In his declaration, Mr Lissu revealed, “With the qualifications I possess, I believe, and I would like to believe, that my fellow Chadema members also believe that I have sufficient qualities to contest for the highest position in the leadership of our party, the chairperson position.”

He also mentioned that his decision to run for chairmanship came after years of calls from some of party leaders and members urging him to contest for the position.

The current party’s chairperson, Mr Freeman Mbowe is expected by most to battle with Mr Lissu to prolong his tenure in that position.

However, when earlier in the week during a press conference if he will run again for the chairmanship, Mr Mbowe responded that “time will tell”.

“The people who will tell me ‘Mbowe, run again’ are these members and my fellow leaders. It’s an internal party matter. Let’s manage Chadema our way.”

Speaking with The Citizen, a political scientist from the University of Dodoma, Dr Paul Loisulie, termed the competition between Mr Lissu and Mr Mbowe as a sign of healthy internal democracy within Chadema.

He said the contest could enhance the party’s democratic credentials but cautions that mismanagement could create cracks for the ruling party to exploit.

“The contest will test the strength of Chadema’s internal democracy. If handled well, it could project Chadema as a strong, democratic institution ready to challenge CCM in 2025. However, if it turns into a power struggle, it could harm the party's unity,” Dr Loisulie said.

He also spoke of the broader implications, noting that how the contest is managed will shape public perception of the opposition’s readiness to lead.

A political analyst at the University of Dar es Salaam, Dr Faraja Kristomus, recommended that the party should demonstrate democratic maturity by allowing the election process to unfold without divisions.

He urged Mr Mbowe to embrace fair competition and uphold democratic principles.

“The election process should avoid dividing the leadership and its members. The chairman must show a willingness to compete to prove that Chadema's leadership embraces democracy,” he said.

Dr Richard Mbunda of the University of Dar es Salaam warned of potential defections if Mr Lissu loses.

He suggested that Mr Lissu might leave Chadema if he does not win the chairmanship, warning that such a scenario could fracture the party.

“If Lissu does not win, he may walk away, and there have been rumors circulating about this possibility. The party must manage this process carefully to avoid creating irreversible factions,” Dr Mbunda said.

He also pointed out that the stakes are high, as how the election is managed will determine the party’s future strength.

“The leadership must manage this process carefully. If they succeed, Chadema will emerge stronger. But if it descends into strife, the party’s prospects for 2025 will be weakened,” Dr Mbunda said.

Another University of Dar es Salaam academic, Dr Onesmo Kyauke, said Tanzanians are about to witness a defining moment for Chadema’s future.

He said that this contest could reshapethe party’s direction.

He described Mr Lissu and Mr Mbowe as representing two different visions for the party.

While Mr Lissu is known for his outspoken stance on human rights and international presence, Mr Mbowe is seen as a strategic thinker with experience in local politics.

“The competition is not just about personalities, but about the strategic direction of Chadema. If the election is transparent, it could boost public trust. But any allegations of favouritism or rigging could damage the party’s credibility ahead of 2025,” Dr Kyauke said.

The political analyst at the State University of Zanzibar, Prof Makame Ali Ussi, referred to the contest as a ‘double-edged sword’ for Chadema.

He noted that while the competition demonstrates internal democracy, it may also expose divisions within the party.

“On one hand, the competition shows that Chadema is practicing internal democracy, which could improve its image. On the other hand, it may deepen divisions that weaken its unity heading into the 2024 and 2025 elections,” he explained.

He warned that how the contest is handled will influence Tanzanians' perception of Chadema's ability to govern, stressing that a peaceful and democratic process could convince voters that the party is ready to lead.