Experts warn of economic fallout in Tanzania-Malawi-South Africa trade spat

Mr Bashe stated via social media that repeated diplomatic efforts had failed, citing Malawi’s ban on Tanzanian agricultural exports—including flour, rice, ginger, bananas, and maize—and long-standing difficulties in accessing South Africa’s market.

“For five years, we’ve tried to access the South African market for our bananas with no success. It’s similar to our avocado issue, which only improved when we acted decisively to defend our interests,” he said.

However, local experts have called for restraint and dialogue, warning that the consequences could affect farmers, traders, and broader regional cooperation within the Southern African Development Community (SADC).

An economist from the Open University of Tanzania (OUT), Dr Lawi Yohana, said that while Tanzania is self-sufficient in some produce, it should explore other markets.

“If Malawi doesn’t need our products, we should look to Kenya, South Sudan, and Namibia, among others,” he said.

Dr Yohana warned against blocking fertiliser imports through the Port of Dar es Salaam, saying such a move could drive neighbouring countries toward alternative routes in Mozambique and Angola.

“We’ve invested in our ports and the Mtwara Corridor. A confrontational approach may damage regional trade and our reputation,” he stressed.

He added that Malawi’s restrictions may be aimed at protecting its local farmers—just as Tanzania does with imports such as sugar.

The agricultural economist from the Sokoine University of Agriculture (SUA), Dr Anna Temu, stressed the human impact.

“Many youth are engaged in cross-border trade and have no safety nets. Sudden bans leave them vulnerable,” she said.

She urged the government to consult affected communities, especially in border regions like Mbeya, and called for better preparedness and communication in future trade decisions.

The Tanzania Chamber of Commerce, Industry and Agriculture (TCCIA) CEO, Ms Mwanahamis Hussein, emphasised diplomacy.

“We must use existing bilateral channels. These issues can be resolved through dialogue,” she insisted.

Other stakeholders

Nzega Rural Member of Parliament, Dr Hamis Kigwangalla, backed the government’s position, saying Tanzania must act to protect its farmers and traders.

Other stakeholders also shared their views, expressing frustration and called for strategic action.

“This is not the time for complaints. We should consider banning their products too—but more importantly, we must invest in agro-industrialisation. Fruit processing at the farm level would prevent farmers from being stranded,” wrote Ms Sabina Aloyce on her Instagram page.

“For example, Arusha once had a banana beer factory that created demand. Now we’re flooded with artificial banana-flavoured products while actual bananas rot. Let this challenge spark meaningful change,” she adds.

Another citizen, Ziaka Itala, wrote: “This is painful. The ministries of Agriculture and Finance should work together to cushion those affected while firmly defending our rights. Our neighbours have wronged us.”

Mr Eddie Malume suggested a more assertive approach: “We need to aggressively explore new markets. Africa is vast. Malawi is no bigger than Mwanza—just being provocative, as they’ve been in the Lake Nyasa boundary dispute. I believe they need us more than we need them.”

For farmer Kissa Kasongwa, the impact is already personal. “This is hurting us. Thank you, Minister, for standing up for us. No one can say they weren’t warned,” she said.

Others, like Dotto Buteye, felt the government’s deadline might be too lenient. “Waiting until Wednesday feels too soft. The damage is already being done,” he said.