Hits and misses in Zanzibar’s troubled multiparty politics

Dar es Salaam. The story of Zanzibar’s multiparty democracy is one of hits-and-misses that make for a good reading of the beautiful, the ugly and the possible in African democratic transitions. Historically politics in Zanzibar has been marred by conflicts that resulted in violence, stand-offs and a revolution. The 30-year multiparty political journey has not been an exception.

More than once the Isles descended into the lowest of the low points, only for the main characters to dust themselves up and continue forging forward.

As there is a silver lining in every dark cloud, Zanzibar’s difficult moments, too, created the environment for the formation of the Government of National Unity.

The difficult moments were headlined by the January 2001 post-election killings and the annulment of the October 2015 General Election.

The GNU could be seen as a makeshift accommodation of the Opposition by the ruling party and a compromise move by the Opposition, but in a situation where elections are not only deadly but also threaten the very survival of the country, the arrangement was seen as the only ideal solution or the lesser evil in Zanzibar’s democratic transition.

Personality, CCM hegemony and GNU

Zanzibar is a unique place geographically and socially; idyllic, exotic, a melting pot of cultures that has produced a rich cultural and linguistic heritage for the world. The nature of its politics is equally unique.

Unlike the Mainland, Zanzibar’s recent multiparty era politics was characterised by the presence of a single, high profile personality in the name of Seif Sharif Hamad, popularly known as Maalim Seif for the 29 years since the reintroduction of multipartism. Till his death in 2021, Maalim Seif personified the Islands’ opposition politics in a manner that made his party, CUF, a political force to reckon with and turned Zanzibar politics into a two horse contest.

The ‘force to reckon with’ met a political hegemony in the form of CCM. The ruling party in Zanzibar lives off its overreaching, pervasive nature that is sustained by the control of instruments of power from the Mainland. This hegemony provides the backing and the privilege to the Isles spin-off.

In a way the hegemony provided a buffer, enabling Zanzibar’s CCM leaders to point an accusing finger at when things become complicated. This is what happened after the 2001 deadly violence and that is how the formation of the GNU became a necessity. The GNU was formed soon after the 2010 Zanzibar elections. It was the fruit of almost 10 years of reconciliation talks (Mwafaka) that culminated into the promulgation of a new Constitution.

Reconciliation was necessitated by the 2001 election violence that left scores of people dead and several others seeking refuge in Kenya and Somalia. Elections in Zanzibar are hotly contested. Results are normally very close, with low winning margins. This makes irregularities or perception of irregularities dangerous flashpoints that can promptly trigger violence.

In the 1995 elections, CCM candidate Salmin Amour won by a 0.48 percent margin. He got 50.24 percent of all votes against Maalim Seif’s 49.76 percent. Obviously the Opposition cried foul, claiming that the election had been stolen from them.

In the 2000 elections, the gap in presidential results widened as CCM’s candidate Amani Abeid Karume got 67.04 percent against Maalim Seif’s 32.96 percent. In 2005, the gap between CCM and CUF narrowed, despite the entry of multiple presidential candidates.

In addition to Amani Abeid Karume of CCM who won the elections by 53.2 percent, and Maalim Seif got 46.1 percentage points in polls with four additional candidates. These were fielded by parties that included (with their percentage points in brackets) Jahazi Asilia (0.5 percent), Democratic Party (0.1 percent), National Reconstruction Alliance (0.1 percent) and Sauti ya Umma (0.1 percent).

The gap between CUF and CCM candidates narrowed further in the 2010 elections even as this election also involved candidates from other opposition parties. While CCM’s Dr Mohammed Shein got 50.11 percent, Maalim Seif got 49.14 percent. Despite being too close the elections were relatively peaceful due to the GNU arrangement.

Maalim Seif went ahead to assume the position of the First Vice President of Zanzibar with Dr Shein serving as the President. CCM also provided the Second Vice President and most of the Cabinet ministers while CUF provided two Cabinet ministers.

Cancelled polls and Opposition’s return to GNU

The GNU was short-lived, however. When Maalim Seif announced pre-emptively that he had won the 2015 presidential election, the Zanzibar Electoral Commission (ZEC) promptly cancelled the results. CUF boycotted elections reruns and three months later Zanzibar functioned as a de facto one party state for five years between 2015 and 2020. There was no opposition in the House of Representatives save for three Cabinet ministers who had been nominated from small opposition parties.

In the meantime, leadership wrangles split CUF into two main factions, one led by Maalim Seif, who had been serving as Secretary General, and another by Prof Ibrahim Lipumba, who had been serving as chairperson.

Eventually the Maalim Seif faction detached itself, joined ACT-Wazalendo party, participated in the 2020 Zanzibar elections and re-joined the GNU with CCM. Unfortunately Maalim Seif died months later on February 17, 2021. ACT-Wazalendo had to pick a new First Vice President to replace him.

As Tanzania marks 30 years of multiparty democracy the future outlook of Zanzibar’s politics is less clear. It remains to be seen what effect, if any, the absence of the Maalim Seif factor and the return of the main Opposition to the GNU would have on electoral politics. Will it be the continuation of the new normal of hit-and-misses or the beginning of a new chapter as President Hussein Mwinyi has pledged? Only time will tell.