Dar es Salaam. As campaigns for the General Election end today, various political parties have shared their assessments and differing views on the percentage of votes they expect to secure in Tanzania’s presidential race.
While some of the 17 parties that fielded presidential candidates remain confident of major victories, others insist that it is ultimately up to voters to determine the true outcome at the ballot box.
The assessments come as election fever intensifies, with Tanzanians preparing to turn out in large numbers for the presidential vote, which is expected to shape the nation’s new political direction.
Besides the presidency, voters will also elect Members of Parliament and councillors tomorrow. Eighteen of the nineteen registered political parties are taking part, with the opposition party Chadema opting out.
According to the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), a total of 37.6 million registered Tanzanians will decide who becomes councillor, MP and president for the next five years.
Party leaders, speaking separately, reflected on their 61 days of campaigning across different regions, highlighting their reach and public response.
CCM Secretary for Ideology, Publicity and Training Kenan Kihongosi said the ruling party had set a new record for attendance during campaign rallies. According to CCM’s data, over 25.3 million people attended public rallies, while 57.1 million followed the campaigns through the media and social platforms.
“The CCM presidential candidate held 114 rallies across the country, attracting 164.9 million online interactions, demonstrating her acceptance and the popularity of the party,” said Mr Kihongosi.
AAFP Secretary-General Rashid Rai said his party conducted 67 rallies in 23 regions and reached about 77 million people through both traditional and digital media, claiming to have surpassed CCM in online engagement. He projected a 62 percent victory, although he cautioned that irregularities could affect the margin.
ADC’s presidential candidate, Mr Wilson Peter, said he held 91 rallies across 26 regions, reaching 30 million people directly and 45 million online. He estimated his winning margin at 55 percent.
DP Secretary-General Abdul Mluya reported conducting 105 rallies in 22 regions, expressing confidence of a 68 percent win “if fairness prevails.”
UDP candidate Saum Rashid said her party expects an 88 percent victory, noting that they conducted 98 rallies across 28 regions and received overwhelming support from citizens.
Makini Party candidate Coaster Kibonde projected a 72 percent victory after what he described as extensive campaigning nationwide.
UPDP candidate Twalib Kadege said he held rallies in 17 regions and anticipates a strong showing, though he left the final percentage “to the voters.”
TLP Secretary-General Bakari Makame expressed confidence that his party could win with 90 percent of the vote, citing positive public turnout in their 96 rallies.
NRA candidate Hassan Almas said politics is “a matter of faith,” adding that he believes his victory will come through “the will of God and the voters.”
However, political analyst and University of Dar es Salaam lecturer, Prof George Kahangwa, dismissed the percentages cited by the parties as political rhetoric, saying that large crowds at rallies do not necessarily translate into votes.
“Sometimes big turnouts don’t reflect actual votes—some attend for curiosity or encouragement, but vote differently,” he said.
“Crowds can be influenced by many factors, including transportation or local mobilisation.”
He added that while large audiences may indicate popularity, “not everyone in attendance will necessarily vote for you; some may not even vote at all.”
Prof Kahangwa further observed that some parties relied heavily on social media metrics or market-based campaigns, which “inflate figures without corresponding realism.”
“Claims of overwhelming victory are political statements. Since they’re in a contest, they must project confidence—but our electoral environment still lacks transparency for precise predictions,” he noted.
Political commentator Mr Abdulkarim Atiki agreed that figures can be disputed but argued that CCM faces “no real challenger” in this election.
“Results would only differ if citizens decided to turn against the ruling party—otherwise, CCM is like Yanga in the Premier League: dominant and unmatched,” he said.
Mr Atiki added that CCM’s long tenure in power and delivery of public services give it a strong campaign narrative and a likely advantage at the polls.
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