Mushrooming academic papers: Researchers’ concern about scientific trust

The study, presented at the University of Dar es Salaam’s College of Social Sciences (CoSS) during a recent series of seminars, highlights that the number of academic articles published worldwide increased from approximately 1.9 million per year in 2016 to 2.8 million in 2022.

This, experts say, represents a 47 percent rise.

“This surge is alarming, especially considering that there has been little change in the number of scientists during the same period,” Prof Dan Brockington highlighted as he presented the findings to Tanzanian researchers through CoSS.

Prof Brockington emphasised during the seminar that the situation has attracted widespread attention and comment within the scientific community.

The research, conducted by Mark A Hanson, Pablo Gómez Barreiro, Paolo Crosetto, and Dan Brockington, focuses on data related to publisher growth, processing times of articles, and citation behaviours.

In the context of Tanzania, local experts and researchers echo global concerns about the potential consequences of this flood of academic papers.

A senior researcher at the Dar es Salaam Institute of Technology (DIT), Dr Amos Mwakyusa, expressed his apprehensions about the impact on the credibility of scientific research in the country.

"As Tanzanian researchers, we value the integrity of our work. The rise in the number of published articles must not compromise the quality and rigor of the scientific process. If articles are not properly peer-reviewed, it undermines the very foundation of trust that the public places in scientific findings," he said.

The study points out that certain publishers, including the Multidisciplinary Publishing Institute (MDPI) and Elsevier, have played a disproportionate role in hosting this growth.

This revelation raises concerns about the standards of peer review and the overall quality of research being published, with potential repercussions for public trust in science.

“Public trust in science depends on science being done properly,” Dr Mark Hanson, from Centre for Ecology and Conservation at the University of Exeter said.

“That means articles should be properly peer-reviewed, which takes time. It means some articles will be rejected, then either revised and improved or sent back to the drawing board.”

MDPI, responsible for around 27 percent of the growth in published articles since 2016, has been a focal point in the study.

As such, Dr Mwakyusa states: "While it's essential for the scientific community to publish its findings, it's equally crucial that the process upholds rigorous standards. Rapid publication at the expense of thorough peer review could lead to misinformation and erode trust in the scientific community."

Special issues

One significant issue highlighted in the study is the concept of "special issues," which are collections of articles focusing on a particular topic. These special issues, Dr Brockington said, traditionally arise from conferences or pressing scientific subjects, have seen a surge in numbers.

However, he explained, changes in the definition of "special" have allowed certain publishers to expedite the publication process.

A research fellow at the Tanzania Commission for Science and Technology (Costech), Dr Hassan Juma, noted: "Traditional model of special issues involved a thorough peer-review process. However, the new model, as outlined in the study, allows for minimal rejection and rapid peer review. This compromises the quality assurance process and can lead to the publication of substandard research."

The study reveals that MDPI, in particular, boasts an average turnaround time of about 37 days, significantly shorter than other publishing groups.

Dr Juma further commented: "Such a short turnaround time raises concerns about the depth and thoroughness of the peer-review process. Quality research requires time and careful scrutiny to ensure accuracy and reliability."

Impact inflation

The rise in the number of published articles has also given rise to what the authors’ term as "impact inflation." Journal impact, based on measures such as citations, is crucial for authors seeking grants and funding.

However, the study points out high rates of "self-citation" in MDPI journals, which can artificially elevate a journal's impact.

A lecturer from the University of Dodoma, Dr Boniface Nkya, emphasised the importance of addressing these issues within the Tanzanian academic community.

"Local researchers should be aware of the changing landscape in scientific publishing and strive to maintain the highest standards of integrity. This is not just a global concern; it affects us directly in Tanzania, impacting the credibility of our research and academic institutions."

As the pressure to "publish or perish" intensifies, researchers in Tanzania face similar challenges. Dr Nkya suggested: "Funding bodies and regulatory groups need to set clear guidelines and standards, ensuring that the pursuit of knowledge does not compromise the quality and reliability of scientific research. Striking a balance between quantity and quality is essential for the progress of science in Tanzania."

According to the CoSS Principal, Prof Christine Noe, the research findings through the seminar series was going to give them the impetus and motivation to continue doing well and work on the existing weaknesses.

"It is not that all the studies in international journals are perfect. No. There are others that do not have the required quality, but they are published. We also have studies that are good, but we have the opportunity to continue improving to overcome existing challenges,” she said.