Dar es Salaam. As global leaders prepare to intensify climate negotiations at COP30, the International Energy Agency (IEA) has released its World Energy Outlook 2025 (WEO 2025), warning that the world’s continued reliance on fossil fuels is not only economically short-sighted but also deepening the climate crisis, escalating loss and damage already devastating vulnerable nations.
Despite political pressure from fossil fuel interests, the IEA’s latest findings leave little room for doubt: the energy transition is both unstoppable and essential to limiting global warming to 1.5°C.
Even the report’s most conservative scenarios confirm that coal and oil demand will peak before or around 2030, while renewable energy continues to outpace all other sources.
Notably, Africa holds more than 60 percent of the world’s untapped renewable energy potential.
“The direction of the energy system is clear. More than $10 trillion has already been invested in clean energy since 2014.
The choice now is between accelerating the transition or paying later to undo the damage,” said the European Climate Foundation CEO, Laurence Tubiana, on Wednesday, November 12, 2025.
The WEO 2025 analysis shows that even if global climate action stalls, renewable energy would still grow faster than fossil fuels.
Yet every delay in moving away from oil, gas, and coal translates into greater economic losses, food insecurity, and extreme weather impacts, especially in developing regions such as Africa and Asia.
According to the IEA, no new oil or gas projects are needed to meet global demand if warming is to be limited to 1.5°C.
Continuing to approve new fossil fuel ventures, the agency notes, risks locking economies into stranded assets while accelerating loss and damage linked to climate-induced disasters such as floods, droughts, and rising sea levels.
“Every tonne of carbon we avoid today saves far greater costs tomorrow,” added Mr Tubiana.
A just transition and global energy security
The central message of the 2025 report is energy security, emphasising the need for stronger grid systems, storage, and flexibility to integrate renewable power.
The IEA urges governments to fulfil the COP29 pledge on grid investment, describing it as vital to keeping energy systems resilient and accessible.
The Global Renewables Alliance CEO, Mr Bruce Douglas, highlighted the scale of change, noting: “Between now and 2030, the world will build more renewables than in the last 40 years combined.”
He added: “Nearly all new electricity demand from AI, electric vehicles, and manufacturing will be met by renewable energy. Fossil fuels are now on the sidelines.”
This shift offers a pathway not only to climate stability but also to long-term energy security.
As fossil fuel–importing countries reel from recent energy shocks, many are discovering that renewables and electrification bring lower costs, greater independence, and fewer social losses.
A chief analyst at Ember, Dave Jones, an energy think tank that promotes the clean energy transition through data and policy, emphasised that technology has already outpaced policy.
“The revolution is happening right now, from electric vehicles in emerging economies to dispatchable solar backed by grid batteries. Slower transitions only raise global temperatures and economic risks,” said Jones.
Africa’s opportunity and the loss and damage connection
For Africa, the WEO 2025 carries both a warning and an opportunity. The continent is already bearing the brunt of loss and damage, from rising sea levels threatening coastal cities like Dar es Salaam and Lagos to drought-driven food crises across the Horn of Africa.
Yet it also possesses over 60 percent of the world’s best solar potential, a resource that remains largely untapped.
“The march of clean energy is now unstoppable. It offers a lifeline to millions already living with the impacts of the climate crisis.
Renewable energy is cheaper, cleaner, and quicker to deploy, a real chance for Africa to power development while avoiding the costly damages of fossil dependence,” said the Power Shift Africa Director, Mr Mohamed Adow.
Africa’s Oil Change International Director, Thuli Makama, said the WEO confirms what African leaders already know: “True energy security means investing in modern grids and clean power systems.
Governments must turn the COP29 pledge into real projects. Every delay leaves millions without access and deepens our dependence.”
The IEA findings, observers say, should serve as a wake-up call for policymakers heading to COP30.
The decisions made now on fossil fuel phase-out, renewable investment, and finance for loss and damage will determine whether vulnerable countries can survive the coming decades without catastrophic economic and human losses.
A call for energy sovereignty
Experts warn that Africa must not be relegated to the role of a raw material supplier in the new energy race.
A transition expert, Dean Bhebhe, cautioned: “Africa cannot sleepwalk into a future designed elsewhere. The race for critical minerals risks reproducing colonial dependency, exporting raw materials while importing technology. The continent needs energy sovereignty, not just access.”
Echoing the sentiment, the Global Institute for Sustainable Prosperity President, Fadhel Kaboub, argued that the energy transition must empower Africa to industrialise on its own terms.
“Halting new fossil fuel investments is both a moral and economic imperative. But it must go hand in hand with building local value chains, from solar manufacturing to battery production. Africa cannot transition by importing clean technology while exporting its minerals unprocessed,” said Kaboub.
He called for a Global Green New Deal that centres the Global South through grants, concessional finance, and technology transfers linking energy, industry, and climate resilience.
Transition or escalation
As COP30 unfolds in Belém, Brazil, the message from the IEA is clear: failing to act now will deepen loss and damage worldwide.
Continued fossil fuel expansion will not only destabilise energy markets but also amplify the human and economic toll of climate disasters already displacing millions and eroding livelihoods.
“The era of fossil fuel dependency must end. It’s not just a climate goal, it’s a survival strategy,” said Makama.
The World Energy Outlook 2025 reframes the global energy debate around justice, security, and resilience.
It is no longer a question of if the energy transition will happen, but whether it will happen fast enough to prevent the irreversible losses already defining the age of climate change
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