Population: What is the best development model?

Dar es Salaam. Demand for birth control aligning with the country’s ability to provide social services to citizens as stated by President Samia Suluhu Hassan has been greeted by experts with different opinions.

While some commended saying that was the right development model, some said high population could efficiently be used in stimulating the country’s development.

President Hassan made a statement on the need to scale up birth control during her recent visit in Kagera, Geita and Kigoma regions.

She was challenging the CCM ideology and publicity secretary who mobilised citizens to bear as many children as they could during a public rally.

“I’m told there is a health centre helping 1,000 mothers to deliver every month which is an extremely large figure. What will be the situation in the next three years?” she asked.

“How many classrooms, healthcare centres and tonnes of food will be needed? Citizens should slow down,” she told residents of Runzewe, Bukombe District in Geita Region.

However, population growth and economic development have been attracting different opinions from experts at the time Tanzania is forecasted to have 100 million population in 2035 and 200 million at the end of the century.

However, China and Nigeria as well as Japan, Namibia and Botswana could be taken as case studies in understanding the subject at a bigger picture.

Reaching 2020, China had a population of 1.425 billion, $14.7 trillion Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and $10,500 GDP per capita, scooping the 55th position in the global ranking.

On the other hand, by 2019, Japan had a 123.95 million population and a $5 billion GDP.

Nevertheless, the Eastern-Asian country has the $40,000 GDP per capita, securing the 26th position.

But, Nigeria has a 211.40 million population and a $440.78 billion GDP (about 1,013.79 trillion).

On the other hand, Nigeria’s GDP per capita stands at $2,085 which is equal to Sh4.795 million.

But, on the contrary, Namibia has a 2.587 million population, $12.24 billion GDP (Sh28.24 trillion) and a GDP per capita of $4,729 (Sh10.88 million).

For its part, Botswana has a 2.397million population, a $17.61 billion GDP (about Sh40.503 trillion) and $7,348 per capita (Sh16.90 million).

Currently, Tanzania’s population is approximated at 61.498 million, $67.78 billion GDP (Sh155.89 trillion) and $1,135.50 per capita (Sh2.612 million).

Data from the above countries shows that the country’s economy doesn’t strengthen with an increase in population.

Prof Humphrey Mushi of the University of Dar es Salaam (UDSM) said China’s population growth has been controlled at 1.6 percent for 30 years when the economy was growing at 9.5 percent.

“For an economy which is growing at five or six percent, requires population growth that doesn’t exceed two percent for the people to efficiently be provided with social services,” he said over the phone. He said Tanzania’s population has been growing at 2.6 percent compared to 5-6 percent economic growth, something that slightly reduced its poverty, but increasing the number of the poor.

However, the Chinese market cannot be compared to that of the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) and Nigeria despite having a high population due to a huge difference in the per capita among its people.

“While the income of the Chinese is $10,000 that of Nigeria is five times lower, while ours is $1,000. Therefore, what the president has said in her call is the right move,” said Prof Mushi.

“We can’t keep mobilising our people to reproduce without building economic capacity to provide their children with basic social services,” he added.

Yesterday, another economist, Prof Abel Kinyondo said multiple children is a sign of poverty and leads to huge challenges in resource distribution.

“Social services such as health and education could hardly be provided to meet demands of increased population. This is also dangerous because the number of dependent people increases in the country,” he said.

“They could have been educated, but the challenge remains whether the country has enough infrastructure to enable them to get employed or employ themselves,” he said, adding that the jobless youth could easily be dragged to involvement in crime.

However, Prof Haji Semboja of the State University of Zanzibar (Suza) was in July quoted by this paper as saying Tanzania’s lack of enough labour force is the turning point.

“Population growth should be used for the country’s benefits and reap wealth from the lucrative natural resources including land, minerals, forests, water bodies,” he said, adding that more investment is needed.

According to him, stalled economic development would turn population growth a ticking bomb, assuring however that the world will not allow that to happen.

Tanzania Media Women Association (Tamwa) executive director Rose Reuben commended President Hassan for her statement, saying it has been released at a time the global economy has plunged due to different reasons.