Samia: Expose forces behind October 29 chaos

In her address during the commissioning ceremony on Thursday, President Hassan did not shy away from framing the stakes. Describing the chaos as “something none of us ever expected to witness,” she made it clear that the country must not look away from the deeper structural and political pressures that culminated in the violence.

She challenged the Commission to move beyond surface-level explanations and interrogate the forces, covert and overt, that shaped one of the most unsettling episodes in Tanzania’s recent democratic journey.

At the heart of her message were sharp and far-reaching questions. The first was the most fundamental: What exactly triggered the crisis? She urged the team to dig into “the real reason, the real spark, purpose,” suggesting a belief that the unrest was neither random nor accidental.

Equally critical was her focus on the thousands of young people who took to the streets. “What right were these young people demanding? What exactly did they feel they had been denied?” she asked.

Analysts argue that by naming youth frustrations so directly, the President may have opened the door for deeper social reforms depending on what the Commission uncovers.

Her toughest questions, however, were directed at political actors. She instructed the team to scrutinise statements issued by opposition figures before and during the unrest, including rhetoric such as “something must burn” or declarations that the elections would not take place.

“Did these statements contribute to the escalation?” she asked, signalling that the inquiry will evaluate political speech and its potential link to incitement.

She also demanded clarity on the relationship between political parties and the National Electoral Commission during the tense election period and raised concerns over the alleged involvement of NGOs, both local and foreign.

“If money was involved, where did it come from? What role, if any, did our NGOs play?” she asked. This line of questioning points to a wider examination of political financing, influence networks and the possibility of coordinated mobilisation.

The President’s firm tone stood in contrast to the scepticism voiced by the opposition. A day before the launch, Chadema’s Vice Chairman (Mainland) John Heche dismissed the Commission outright, insisting that only an international investigation could be trusted.

“No local commission can produce impartial findings when the government itself is under scrutiny,” he argued on November 19.

ACT-Wazalendo Secretary-General Ado Shaibu echoed that sentiment, saying his party had “zero confidence” in a domestically appointed team and warning that the inquiry risked becoming “a political whitewash.”

President Hassan addressed these concerns directly. “Our colleagues in the opposition say they have no confidence in any local commission,” she said.

“But I have great confidence in this team—your expertise, your experience.” Her remarks appeared crafted not only to defend the legitimacy of the Commission but also to reassure the public that the inquiry will be neither cosmetic nor constrained.

Experts say the President’s questions reflect a turning point in how the state confronts political crises. Political scientist Haji Mshindo notes that the insistence on understanding youth motivations may force the government to re-examine long-standing policy gaps.

“If the Commission tackles this honestly, we may finally confront issues that have been simmering beneath the surface for years,” he said.

Constitutional expert Zablon Mhina believes the inquiry could redefine the boundaries of political speech. “If the Commission draws a clear line between free expression and incitement,” he said, “it will shape how political actors communicate in future elections.”

Governance analyst Kelvin Lubele added that the probe into NGOs and external financing could “reset the rules of political engagement” by tightening oversight mechanisms.

Underlying the President’s confidence is the formidable composition of the Commission, whose biographies, read by Chief Secretary Moses Kusiluka, reflect decades of high-level experience.

Led by former Chief Justice Mohamed Chande Othman and supported by another former Chief Justice, Prof Ibrahim Juma, the team includes retired top diplomats, a former Inspector General of Police, a retired UN force commander and former SADC Executive Secretary Stagomena Tax.

Political historian Angela Mwinuka said the team’s diversity is strategic. “This is a Commission built to understand law, conflict, politics and security simultaneously,” she said.

The President has already indicated that the long-awaited Truth and Reconciliation Commission will be built upon this inquiry’s recommendations. What the team uncovers—and what it chooses to say—will therefore echo far beyond the next three months.