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Six decades of Tanzania: How population growth drives development
Residents of Dar es Salaam at the Kariakoo market. PHOTO | FILE
What you need to know:
- This rapid growth has fuelled economic expansion through a larger workforce and increased domestic demand
Dar es Salaam. Since the historic merger in 1964, where Tanganyika and Zanzibar united to form Tanzania, the country has experienced significant demographic shifts, witnessing exponential population expansion alongside transformative socioeconomic developments.
According to the Population Information Before, During, and After Union released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) when Tanganyika and Zanzibar united in 1964, Tanzania was estimated to have a population of 9,649,925. Among these, men numbered 4,432,599 and women numbered 5,217,326, equivalent to 46 percent and 54 percent respectively.
Furthermore, the population of Tanganyika was 9,354,560, with men at 4,291,869 and women at 5,062,691. The population of Zanzibar was 295,365, with men at 141,800 and women at 153,565.
Since the union until the year 2023, 59 years later, the population born and living within the United Republic of Tanzania is 57,764,800, which is 93.6 percent of the current total population in the country. Among them, men were 28,226,646 and women were 29,538,154, which is equivalent to 49 percent and 51 percent respectively.
For Mainland Tanzania, the population born after the union is 55,976,043, which is 93.5 percent of the total population of Mainland Tanzania, with men numbering 27,359,650 and women numbering 28,616,393.
Meanwhile, for Zanzibar, the population is 1,788,757, which is 94.7 percent of the total population of Zanzibar, with men at 866,996 and women at 921,761. These statistics indicate that by 2023 only 6.4 percent of the country’s population were born before the union.
However, under a high fertility scenario, the country's population could soar to nearly 140 million by 2050, according to the World Bank’s 20th edition of the Tanzania Economic Update which came out in 2024.
On his part, an economist and a lecturer at the University of Dodoma (Udom), Dr Mwinuka Lutengano says that a larger workforce has contributed to increased output and economic growth, particularly in different sectors of the country.
“The availability of labour has enabled businesses to expand operations and meet growing consumer demand, driving investment and entrepreneurship,” he says.
However, he explains that the rapid population growth has also strained labour markets, leading to challenges such as unemployment, underemployment, and wage stagnation.
“As the labour force expands faster than job opportunities, particularly in urban areas, there is a risk of surplus labour and downward pressure on wages, hindering efforts to achieve inclusive and sustainable economic development,” he shares.
On his part, an economist and lecturer at the University of Dar es Salaam (UDSM), Dr Tobias Swai, population growth has fuelled domestic demand in Tanzania, creating opportunities for businesses and stimulating economic activity.
“With a larger population, there is increased demand for goods and services, ranging from basic necessities to discretionary spending items.
“This surge in consumption has contributed to the expansion of the retail sector, infrastructure development, and investment in social facilities,” he says.
He went on to say sustaining healthy domestic demand amidst population growth requires adequate investment in infrastructure, logistics, and supply chains to ensure efficient delivery of goods and services to consumers across the country.
“Moreover, addressing income inequality and enhancing purchasing power among low-income households is crucial for promoting inclusive growth and reducing poverty levels,’ he says.
Mzumbe University’s economist, Dr Daudi Ndaki says investing in human capital development is essential for harnessing the potential of Tanzania's growing population and driving long-term economic prosperity.
According to him, education and healthcare are key pillars of human capital development, enabling individuals to acquire skills, knowledge, and health outcomes necessary for productive participation in the economy.
“While we have made strides in expanding access to education and healthcare services over the past six decades, challenges remain in ensuring quality and equity in service delivery, particularly in rural and marginalized areas.
He emphasizes: “Investing in education and healthcare infrastructure, teacher training, and healthcare facilities is critical for enhancing human capital accumulation and promoting sustainable development.”
On top of that, Dr Emmanuel Maliti, an economist and a lecturer at the University of Dar es Salaam says that though there is an advantage to human capital accumulation rapid urbanization places pressure on housing, transportation, water supply, sanitation, and energy infrastructure, necessitating substantial investment to meet growing demand and ensure sustainable urban growth.
“Urbanization presents opportunities for economic diversification, innovation, and job creation, as cities become hubs of economic activity and centres of innovation and entrepreneurship,” he notes.
On the other hand, population growth in Tanzania has profound implications for social development, as it shapes demographic composition, community dynamics, and social cohesion.
A sociologist from Saint Augustine University of Tanzania (SAUT) Mr Alfani Mduge notes that population growth contributes to demographic shifts and cultural diversification, reshaping social norms, values, and identities within communities.
"Population growth brings together people from diverse backgrounds, ethnicities, and cultural traditions, enriching Tanzania's cultural landscape," he explains.
However, Mr Mduge emphasizes the importance of promoting cultural diversity and intercultural dialogue as essential components of social development.
“Recognizing and valuing cultural heritage, fostering cross-cultural understanding, and promoting cultural exchange can help build inclusive and cohesive societies amidst demographic changes,” he shares.
Another sociologist, Ms Linah Kabula points out that rapid population growth often exacerbates existing inequalities, particularly between urban and rural areas, and among different demographic groups.
"Urbanization driven by population growth can intensify socio-economic disparities, with marginalized communities facing greater barriers to accessing basic services and opportunities," she says.
He continues: “We invest more in urban areas and less in rural areas, that’s not right. Limited access to education, healthcare, employment, and social services perpetuates cycles of poverty and exclusion, widening the gap between the haves and the have-nots."
She went on to say that it is important to address structural inequalities and promote inclusive development policies to ensure that all segments of society benefit from economic growth and social progress.
