Tanzania’s balancing act on economic growth and climate resilience

REPOA director of Strategic Research, Jamal Msami, underscored the paradox facing Tanzania during a recent breakfast debate organised by Policy Forum themed: Shaping Tanzania’s Future: Navigating Choices, Challenges, and Enablers for Climate-Resilient Development.

During the event, he highlighted the necessity of fostering economic growth while protecting the ecosystem and biodiversity.

“We have long relied on fossil fuels to fuel our cities and economies. Now, we must pivot toward sustainable practices that not only mitigate the impacts of climate change but also safeguard the livelihoods of our most vulnerable communities,” he said.

The challenge of resilience

The challenge of resilience is complex because in Tanzania climate change manifests through rising sea levels, erratic weather patterns and increasing incidences of tropical diseases.

These issues disproportionately affect those in low-lying coastal areas, particularly in Dar es Salaam, where rising sea levels will cost the city around $65 million by 2050.

The situation is dire in the islands of Unguja and Pemba, where vulnerable populations face the brunt of these changes.

‘Resilient development’ cannot be discussed without addressing the economic vulnerabilities of affected communities, said Dr Msami.

He elaborated that in many rural areas, reliance on agriculture and fisheries makes these populations particularly susceptible to climate-induced shocks.

Furthermore, Dr Msami said the fishing industry, for instance, is expected to see significant declines, jeopardising the livelihoods of many families reliant on the subsector.

Economic costs of inaction

The financial toll of climate change is staggering, as agriculture alone is estimated to lose around $200 million annually due to changing weather patterns, as loss due to health-climate-related challenges could exceed $100 million a year.

As labour productivity is historically low and on a downward trend, the forecast for the coming decades is grim, with projections indicating a decline equivalent to 1.2 percent of Tanzania’s gross value added by 2050.

“Without a transformative approach to energy and resource management, these challenges will only escalate,” he stressed.

“We’ve implemented green cooking initiatives, but they still rely on gas, a merely transitional solution. Without a comprehensive strategy to shift our energy production and consumption patterns, the impacts will be profound,” added Dr Msami.

Water stress: A looming crisis

Water scarcity is another pressing concern; despite the abundant presence of renewable water sources, projections indicate a significant decline by 2030, pushing the country into water stress status.

“Unless we invest in adaptive technologies and water management systems, many regions, including Dodoma, will face acute shortages,” warned Dr Msami.

This impending crisis underscores the need for urgent investment in adaptation strategies to ensure sustainable water management, warning that failure to address the challenge will extend repercussions beyond individual communities to impact the entire nation.

The emission paradox

At the heart of Tanzania’s climate challenge lies the issue of emissions, with land use change and forestry accounting for a staggering 69.56 percent of the country’s greenhouse gas emissions, primarily driven by agricultural expansion and deforestation.

“Each time we clear land for farming, we contribute to emissions and disrupt vital ecosystems,” explained Dr Msami.

Agriculture, which employs two-thirds of Tanzania’s population and contributes 25 percent to the economy, paradoxically stands both as a pillar for economic stability and a significant source of emissions.

The figures are daunting, said Dr Msami, adding that agriculture is responsible for 38.63 percent of methane emissions, alongside land use change and forestry.

Furthermore, Dr Msami said the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) could collapse in the next 10 to 15 years, significantly impacting temperature and weather patterns across the Atlantic.

He said this potential extinction, driven by rising greenhouse gas emissions and melting Greenland ice caps, could lead to a temperature drop of 10 to 15 degrees Celsius, devastating agriculture.

“West Africa may experience temperature increases of the same magnitude, threatening livelihoods. Urgent action is needed to build resilience, as similar impacts are expected soon in East Africa,” suggested Dr Msami.

Govt, stakeholders’ take

An environmental management officer from the National Environment Management Council (NEMC), Mr Clarance Nkwera, said the council is committed to highlighting urgent climate change issues in Tanzania, including rising temperatures, malaria outbreaks, and rising sea levels affecting Mafia and Pangani, among other areas.

Mr Nkwera, who doubles as a marine scientist, said that ranked 148th in the Climate Vulnerability Index, Tanzania faces significant risks without effective national strategies.

He emphasised the need for funding, technological innovation, and comprehensive approaches to balance development with environmental conservation.

“Key areas include sustainable agriculture, renewable energy, and effective governance. Enhancing education, research, and climate financing is also crucial for resilience,” he said.

Tanzania’s future depends on proactive choices that prioritise sustainability in navigating the challenges of climate change.

Principal Forest Officer at the President’s Office Regional Administration and Local Government (PO-RALG), Ms Felista Kagembe, outlined the government’s strategies to combat climate change, including planting 1.5 million trees across 184 councils.

She said District Executive Directors (DEDs) are charged with the allocation of funds from annual council budgets for the implementation of the tree planting initiative to increase carbon absorption and climate effects mitigation.

“The PO-RALG also supervises the Lokari project in Dodoma, promoting tree planting and clean energy in schools. However, we are facing some challenges, including inadequate funding and the failure to prioritise climate issues among councils,” she said.

According to her, citizens’ awareness of climate change remains relatively low, and carbon trading initiation across several councils provides environmental benefits and income opportunities.

For her part, the Deputy Head of Cooperation from the Embassy of Ireland to Tanzania, Ms Suzanne Keatinge, emphasised the crucial role of research in addressing climate change.

She reiterated that informed decisions are vital, saying while climate change can be overwhelming, breaking them into practical solutions and incentivising those solutions fosters hope rather than despair.

“Young people in Ireland have been significant agents of change as they held politicians accountable and pushed for urgent action,” she said, insisting on the importance of collaboration between Ireland and Tanzania in tackling climate change challenges.

She expressed Ireland’s commitment to climate action, which encompasses taking responsibility for its actions and understanding the intersection between climate and security.

Ms Keatinge highlighted Ireland’s commitment to supporting developing countries, emphasising the need for climate financing, adaptation, and addressing loss and damage.

She outlined practical actions observed in Tanzania during her recent visit to several places, such as solar panel installation in medical facilities that significantly improve lives in remote areas.

She underscored the need to integrate climate issues into different sectors of the economy learn from local communities, and identify challenges facing women whose role in climate solutions is underestimated.

The path forward

To navigate this tumultuous landscape, Tanzania must embrace a holistic approach to climate resilience, focusing on equitable development and sustainable practices.

Dr Msami advocated for robust policy frameworks to integrate environmental considerations into economic planning.

“It’s about creating enabling conditions for sustainable practices to thrive, ensuring that the voices of the most affected communities are heard in the decision-making process,” he recommends.

As the world turns its gaze towards climate solutions, Tanzania’s journey highlights the intricate balance between development and environmental stewardship.

The stakes are high, but with collective action and innovative strategies, there is hope for a resilient future that safeguards the planet and its people.