Tanzania’s uneasy transition after Mwalimu stepped down

Dar es Salaam. Julius Nyerere, Tanzania's revered founding father, stepped down as president in 1985, leaving behind a complex legacy.

A charismatic leader and champion of socialism, Nyerere's "Ujamaa" policies aimed to create a society based on communal ownership and self-reliance which led to the building of an extensive network of social services and education.

He was a respected figure on the world stage, who advocated for a new international economic order that favoured developing nations.

 However, by the mid-1980s, these socialist policies had taken a toll on the economy, leading to economic decline and growing discontent.

Declassified CIA document, released in 2013, sheds light on the tumultuous transition period that followed Nyerere's departure.

Despite relinquishing the presidency, Nyerere continued to wield significant influence behind the scenes. The document reveals his efforts to "prop up Tanzania's ailing left," creating friction with his successor, Ali Hassan Mwinyi.

The CIA highlights his continued influence within the ruling party (CCM) and his efforts to maintain socialist policies. This "leftist economic line" was increasingly unpopular as Tanzania's economy faltered.

Mwinyi, a compromise candidate chosen by Nyerere, lacked his predecessor's charisma and political acumen. The document describes him as "uncomfortable in the shadow of Nyerere's impressive reputation" and struggling to assert his authority.

 This power vacuum fueled factionalism within the government, with "more aggressive Cabinet ministers" vying for influence.

Loyalists, such as Prime Minister Warioba and Minister Kingunge Ngombale-Mwiru, pushed for a continuation of socialist policies, hindering Mwinyi's attempts at economic reform.

Nyerere's behind-the-scenes maneuvering further complicated issues. He reportedly interfered in foreign policy and undermined Mwinyi's attempts to improve relations with neighbouring countries such as Zaire (now DRC)

Tanzania's economic woes loomed large. Nyerere's socialist policies had left the country in a precarious state claims the document. While some Cabinet members, like Finance minister Cleopa Msuya, advocated for IMF-backed reforms, Nyerere's continued influence and Mwinyi's indecisiveness hampered progress.

The document which was a wire memo sent to Langley, Virginia in around 1986 predicted "political infighting" to be the "main feature of the government" for the two years to follow.

However even with the economic hardship, the report suggests social unrest was unlikely due to "traditional passivity" and the rise of an informal economy that lessened dependence on government policies.

The document contemplated the possibility of Nyerere's complete withdrawal from the political scene.

This scenario, the CIA believes, offered the best chance for significant change. However, even a more assertive leader might struggle to alter Tanzania's foreign policy, which remained firmly rooted in leftist ideology.

The document also acknowledges the potential for military discontent as a source of instability following a failed attempt in 1983 by a few military officers to usurp power.

While Tanzania lacked a history of coups, economic hardship and frustration with the government's direction posed a challenge to the regime.

This declassified document paints a portrait of a nation in transition. Nyerere's shadow loomed large, his legacy a mix of visionary ideals and economic stagnation.

Mwinyi's leadership was uncertain, and the path forward remained unclear. Tanzania's future at that point, the document suggests, hinged on its ability to navigate the complex political landscape and address its pressing economic woes.