The real winners and losers in Tanzania’s 2015 General Elections

The political dust is still settling following the just concluded general elections where CCM once again triumphed. Despite reports of some irregularities here and there, the electorate maintained calm after the announcement that John Magufuli is the President-elect with 58.46 per cent, against Edward Lowassa’s 39.97 per cent of the vote, a result the latter strongly disputes. 

In my view, this calmness says loud and clear, not that Tanzanians are a peaceful people, but that they understand that their government was prepared to ruthlessly clamp downany act of rebellion through laws that limit people from organizing, expressing their views on digital platforms and an obvious brandishing of heavy military capability.

 Not only that, the calmness after the announcement also points to the fact that the electorate understands that the country elected the best man they could from an extremely decadent CCM. The outcome is a hard-earned win for those who support CCM, and an acceptable loss for those who sided with the opposition.

The short term winners and losers in the elections are known. But looking at the next 5 to 10 years, what impact will the just-concluded elections have on the politics of the nation? Particularly, who are the likely long-term winners and losers?

Five winners

The rural poor

Largely taunted as ignorant, the rural voters of Tanzania have their man in state house. CCM has always been deemed as having firm roots in rural Tanzania where majority are considered poor. Magufuli will likely serve two terms if historical facts are to go by. None of his predecessors has ever served one term, and it’s hard to see why he’d break routine. But his second victory will not come easy, especially as an incoming president with the lowest approval ratings among voters. Magufuli’s second term depends on his ability to meet the demands of the rural poor who overwhelmingly voted him in.

Jakaya Kikwete

Who would have thought? His popularity declined by nearly 20 per cent between 2005 and 2010. Kikwete got away with it, but it is foreseeable that had he stood for a third term, (which is unconstitutional but trendy in the region considering the Presidency of Museveni, Kagame and Nkurunziza), he would’ve found himself out in the cold. Kikwete’s era strengthened the opposition and weakened an ever strong CCM, yet against all odds, he still implemented a succession plan that left his opponents bewildered. Ideally, Lowassa’s walk-out was supposed to seal his (Kikwete’s) fate, but in a strange twist, he still left his party somewhat firmly in power. The multiple cabinet and party secretariat reshuffles are telling of his need for better management in his ten years as President and Party Chairman, but he ends up on the winners’ list for that shrewd display of political survival in a near crisis moment.

Wilbroad Slaa

One minute a hero of change, the next a traitor and a “CCM sellout”. Dr Slaa and Chadema gained their position as the main opposition party over the Civic United Front - CUF by unearthing corruption in government, including Lowassa’s vices in the “Richmond saga” that caused him to resign as Prime Minister in 2008. Chadema also became popular after coming up with the famous list of shame listing 11 corrupt high ranking officials in government, including Lowassa and Kikwete. 2015 saw an interesting turn of events: After being axed from the CCM nominations by the national executive committee, Edward Lowassa came hunting in Chadema and surprisingly got not only a welcome invitation but was also made the coalition’s flag bearer. Wading against the Lowassa euphoria that had swept the country and ‘strong evidence’ that confirmed the former Prime Minister as a the most likely candidate to win the elections, Dr. Slaa stuck to his guns and distanced himself from it all, believing he (Lowassa) represented everything the opposition stood against. Slaa ends up on the winners’ list because his decisiveness and stance on anti-corruption have been tried and proven. In future, people may come back to him without second thoughts when looking for a ‘saviour’.

Zitto Kabwe and ACT

The passionate politician is another hero turned traitor! The former chairman of the Parliamentary Accounts Committee – PAC’s dismissal from Chadema is by all means mysterious if looked at from the point of view of accountability and democracy. He personally ends up on the winners’ list because he has survived what would have been a premature end to an extremely promising political career, and he did it in unorthodox fashion. Given an easier choice of joining any other opposition party with some traction, Zitto joined a new party (which he is widely believed to have participated in starting while still with Chadema), was elected Party Leader, and drove a strong campaign for a party that finished a distant third in the presidential race despite being new and fielding a completely unknown woman candidate. Over the last few years, Zitto has distinguished himself as an ‘issue-based politician’. Many pundits saw his party, the Alliance for Change and Transparency – ACT’s manifesto as the best in the 2015 elections. Zitto is an opinion leader and an influencer, capable of drawing support from across the political divide. He once managed to collect signatures from CCM members to support a vote of no confidence against the current outgoing Prime Minister. Also, in his last bit of work in the last parliament as PAC chair, during the Escrow saga investigation, Zitto received praise from both CCM and the opposition for his outstanding efforts. He comes back in parliament as the underdog and a loner. It is easy to think of this as a disadvantage, but based on his character, he is likely to get a lot more done in the next parliament. Whatever law and policy reforms he will be spearheading will easily appeal to majority of members in the house – because after all, he is not promoting party agenda! This is good for ACT’s 2020 campaign, and for Zitto’s ambition for the top office.

The people’s constitution (not Ukawa)

A united opposition garnered nearly 40% of the vote. Such an achievement was previously unimaginable in Tanzania, and even CCM’s own estimation saw them winning the election with a margin of about 38%. It turned out to be only 18%, the closest presidential race in the history of the country. The coalition played a big role in this result, but let us not forget, what brought the opposition together was their common push for a new constitution that will be more reflective of the people’s needs. Before this election, it was easy to dismiss this as simply a political agenda. But if 40% of the voters could vote for the Ukawa (Union for the People’s Constitution) candidate, then majority would be in support of constitutional reform. There is a political awakening in Tanzania, and as seen in the just concluded elections, both Magufuli and Lowassa somewhat represented ‘change’. When a referendum is called, majority will vote for change; and this change is clearly not contained in the draft CCM tampered with in the constitutional assembly resulting into a boycott by the opposition. The people’s draft (Warioba’s draft) will emerge victorious.

Five losers

The urban poor

The opposition received a large number of their votes in urban areas, winning only in Arusha, Dar es Salaam and Kilimanjaro regions in the presidential race in mainland Tanzania. Analysts have often referred to the opposition in Tanzania as an elitist movement. This can be easily mistaken to mean ‘the middle class and above’ dwelling in urban areas are pro-change. However, the majority in urban areas are those who have chosen the thrill of the urban life at the expense of the quiet agrarian life, even though they were probably better off in their rural homes. Unlike the rural poor who are content with the little they have, the very fact that the urban poor have exposed themselves to the miseries of the urban life suggests that they are more inclined to hope, believe in and therefore vote for change. Unfortunately for them, development policy is often rural-focused, and their most assured chance of being heard would come through the opposition candidate who their vote went to. They will continue to be somewhat ignored as the next government focuses on addressing rural poverty.

January Makamba

As a ‘newbie’ in politics, making the list of 5 candidates (out of 41) who are selected to seek the ruling party’s penultimate vote which picks their presidential candidate is a huge victory - pretty Obama-esque!. His success in this race is but a reflection of his high chances for nomination in 2025 (CCM often lets the incumbent run unopposed if eligible to contest a second term). But in a situation where CCM is losing its popularity and the opposition gaining foothold, January needed to maintain a reasonable distance from the increasingly wearing-out CCM brand. After all, he is youthful, intelligent and generally represents a brand of politics that is a generation ahead of that of his party. He became the face of the CCM campaign (Campaign Spokesperson), and yes he did pretty well (arguably better than the natural holder of the position, the party’s ideology and publicity secretary, Nape Nnauye would have done), but he also ‘took one for the team’. He rescued CCM at the expense of his greatest political ambitions. Like the young Alfred Mutua who served during Mwai Kibaki’s term in Kenya, Makamba can eventually have a legacy of his own, but I’m willing to bet that his actions in the 2015 elections will haunt the rest of his political career. People will be voting for change again in 2025, and regardless of the soundness of his campaign agenda, January will be despised and dismissed for once playing ‘devil’s advocate’.

Media independence

The toughest election in the history of Tanzania also brought about the toughest period for the local media. In a population so split in opinion, it was very hard for any person or institution, media houses included, to remain independent and non-biased. Our local media though failed miserably. One could not pick 3 mainstream media houses that maintained a neutral stance throughout the elections. The leading media houses in the country, including those widely considered independent actively endorsed a single-sided agenda. Not that it is completely strange for media houses to lean towards an agenda promoted by one side, but to so openly expose what can be termed as allegiance to a political party is an act of suicide for any media house, save for those owned by parties themselves. At the end of the day, media will continue being in business, but their very existence will also depend of their willingness to continue violating (and consciously so) the good principles of media independence.

John Magufuli

As ‘different’ as he is, Dr. Magufuli makes history by becoming the country’s President-elect with the lowest approval ratings. Unlike his predecessors, Dr. Magufuli needs to prove himself. The nearly 40% change-seeking citizens who showed unwavering support to the opposition candidate will not wait for 5 years to prove their point. Their leaders will keenly follow the new president’s undertakings with a fault-finding eye, hoping to turn the masses’ favor against him, and in that way build a campaign agenda against him in 2020, or sooner. Magufuli will have to lead Tanzania in the face of the strongest opposition the country has ever experienced, and this is more likely to derail his success rather than it is to propel him towards it. Tough man, made for tough times? Let’s wait and see.

Chadema

Magufuli is not alone in this position; Chadema too has to prove to the masses that they are indeed the correct alternative to CCM. They easily got away with this in 2010 – 2015, but this time they won enough ward and parliamentary seats, will control a significant number of councils, mostly urban, and most importantly, they will be sufficiently funded through taxpayers’ money. Unlike in the previous years, Chadema is now a mature party, and unfortunately this comes with responsibilities and expectations. As a good indication that failure to meet expectations will hurt Chadema, they lost two seats in Mwanza city to CCM in the just-concluded elections. One of Chadema’s more fiery and popular MPs who defeated the then Minister for Internal Affairs to win the parliamentary seat for Nyamagana constituency in 2010, ended up losing it to a young and pragmatic former Mayor of the city in the just concluded elections. The next five years are probably the most crucial to Chadema as their chances in the next running for all positions will be determined by how well they handle ‘the little they were given’. Having CCM in a similar position where they too have to earn their next victory, and ACT making efforts to set themselves apart as the opposition party representing ‘actual change’, Chadema will need their best strategy minds to maintain their position both as the country’s main opposition party, and as the closest ever challenger to CCM.

All in all, Tanzania is a better democracy than it ever was. The longest serving party in Africa has retained power in a country whose social and economic indicators are widely regarded as incommensurate with its potential. However, rather than going through a meaningless democratic eruption, the people of Tanzania seem to be opting to move steadily towards the change they want, and it seems that more than even, politicians and political parties will have to inject more strategy into the game.