TZ@60: Six decades of seeking food self-sufficiency in Tanzania

Dar es Salaam. Tanzania has attained food surplus production, a feat worthy celebration as the country marks 60 years of independence.

The country reached food self-sufficiency 17 years ago, and attained surplus food production status eight years ago, data from the ministry of Agriculture indicate.

In fact, maize and rice - the most important staples in the country - have been produced with a surplus for the past 10 years, the minister for Agriculture, Dr Adolf Mkenda, told reporters on November 28 this year.

It has not always been like that. “In the first 25 years after independence, especially in the 1990s, Tanzania faced periods of consistent food shortages. The situation started improving after the ministry adopted various strategies and programmes and now the country produces surplus food,” Dr Mkenda told reporters in Dodoma.

Tanzania started having consistent food self-sufficiency in the 2005/06 season. Food shortages, sufficiency and surplus is measured by the Self-Sufficient Ratio (SSR) in terms of percentages. Sufficient food supply, which means production is just enough to meet local demands, is indicated by the SSR of between 100 per cent and 120 per cent. Surplus production, which means the country has spare food to export, is indicated by the SSR of more than 120 per cent while food deficit, which means the country needs to import food, is denoted by SSR of less than 100 per cent. In the 2005/06 season Tanzania had the SSR of 103 per cent. In the previous season (2004/05) the country had severe drought that caused a food deficit (SSR of 88 percent) that was filled by imports. From 2005/06 season to 2013/14 Tanzania experienced food self-sufficiency (SSR of between 100 and 119 percent). The following season (2014/15) the country experienced food production surplus, which continued consecutively to the 2018/19 season.

In 2019/20, food supply fell to sufficient (SSR of 118 percent) and then returned to surplus in 2020/21 (SSR of 126 percent) and in 2021/22 (SSR of 125 percent).

Between 1995/96 and 2004/5, food production was fluctuating between self-sufficiency and deficit. In general, according to reports from the ministry of Agriculture, Tanzania attained an average SSR of 88 percent in the four decades, between 1971 and 2011.

Current food supply status

Statistics from the ministry of Agriculture show that food production in the 2020/21 season, which reflects availability in 2021/22, was 18,425,250 metric tons (tonnes grain equivalent) against the demand of 14,796,751 tonnes. This represents a surplus of 3,628,499 tonnes, which is equivalent to the SSR of 125 percent, according to the food situation report.

The report further shows that cereal production was 10,639,990 tonnes as compared to the demand of 9,417,888 tonnes. This means the country is expected to have a surplus of 1,222,103 tonnes of cereals in the 2021/22 financial year.

Production of maize was 6,908,318 tonnes while demand was 5,956,814 tonnes leading to a surplus of 951,504. About 2,629,519 tonnes were produced against the demand for 1,091,778 tonnes: a surplus of 1,537,741 tonnes. For 2021/22, Tanzania is expected to be food self-sufficient in all major food crops except millet, sorghum and wheat. The surplus will be in rice (which will have self-sufficiency ratio/SSR of 241 percent), legumes (249 percent SSR), green bananas (141 percent SSR), and potatoes (153 percent SSR). Self-sufficiency - which means meets demand but no surplus - is expected in maize (116 percent SSR) and cassava (107 percent SSR).

Crops production with a deficit would be filled by imports from overseas. In the year ending September the country spent $452.6 million for importation of food and foodstuffs according to the Bank of Tanzania latest data. Wheat imports account for nearly 30 percent of total agricultural imports, according to the FAO.

In 2020/21, Tanzania produced 70,288 tonnes of wheat against a demand of a million tonnes. The rest was imported from Russia, Turkey, Canada, India, Argentina and Australia.

In the same season, Tanzania produced 1,031,865 million tonnes of sorghum and millet while the demand is 2,087,358 tonnes; a gap of 1,055,493 tonnes.

Despite food sufficiency and the surplus, Tanzania has always had pockets of food shortages. In fact the sufficiency or surplus reflects the national average and not an overriding reality. For example, in the 2021/22 financial year, only 13 regions have a food surplus, ranging from 240 percent SSR in Ruvuma to 120 percent SSR in Mtwara. The best performing regions - with SSR of more than 200 percent - are Njombe (202), Katavi (208), Songwe (2014), Rukwa (235) and Ruvuma (240). About 12 regions had food sufficiency that ranged between 118 percent SSR in the Coast Region and 107 percent SSR in Mwanza. Dar es Salaam had a total food deficit of one per cent SSR. The ministry of Agriculture projections show that 17 districts in eight regions (Tanga, Manyara, Arusha, Kilimanjaro, Mara, Singida, Simiyu and Dodoma) will have pockets of food shortages in some districts.

“Shortages have been caused by various factors including uneven rainfall distribution, pests, destruction of crops by wildlife and armyworms,” the food situation report for 2021/22 shows.

Ban of exports

The state of food availability has informed the ban on exports of foodstuffs, especially maize during times of shortages and when cereal prices are too high. In the past two decades, export bans on maize have been imposed more than five times. The export restrictions are usually lifted when the food supply improves. Export restrictions were imposed in 2004, 2006, 2008, 2009 and 2011. The most recent ban was imposed in 2017, and lifted in 2018.

Despite surplus food production, Tanzania still faces high malnutrition due to low content of nutrition in the food staples consumed by most people. Dr Mkenda says that, in the past six years, malnutrition has declined only slightly: from 34.7 percent in 2015 to 31.8 percent in 2018.

Tanzania self-sufficiency food supply is not permanent, according to experts. The situation can turn from surplus to deficit from one season to another depending on availability of rain. This is because more than 90 percent of agriculture depends on rainfall. Another problem facing agriculture and, by extension, food security, is low yields and inadequate uses of fertilizers. As a result of this farmers have to cultivate more and more land for the same amount of crops. Unreliable markets and poor rural transport infrastructure reduce the financial gains that farmers can get from their produce. This negatively affects farmers’ incentive to produce more.

To ensure permanent food self-sufficiency in the next 60 years, the government will have to work on these issues.

The government will also have to work tirelessly to increase the participation of the private sector and financial institutions in the agriculture sector, especially in the farming of cereals, experts say.

Cereals have now become effective cash crops, experts say.