TZ@60: Why Tanzania has failed to achieve total electricity coverage in 60 years

Dar es Salaam. Tanzania is on the verge of achieving total electricity coverage in the country, statistics from the government show.

Stakeholders say the achievement, while commendable, is a result of sheer political will despite seemingly insurmountable obstacles on the way to lighting up the nation.

The obstacles include abject poverty both in urban and rural areas that makes power supply economically unviable, financial and technical deficits in power generation and supply as well as entrenched corruption in the power generation sub-sector that has made electricity extra-expensive for a poor country like Tanzania.

But latest data from the budget speech tabled by former minister for Energy Medard Kalemani in Parliament and corroborated by the 2019/20 Energy Use & Situation Survey IIshows that by March 2021, about 47 million Tanzanians (equivalent to 78.4 per cent) had access to electricity supplied by Tanesco through the national grid and off-grid in isolated power stations.

Success in rural electrification is even momentous, with 86 per cent of all villages in Tanzania Mainland electrified, largelythrough the efforts of the Rural Electrification Agency. Much of the electrification in rural areas has been done within five years since 2015. According to Dr Kalemani only 2,018 villages were connected to electricityin 2015. But by April 2021 10,312 villages were connected to electricity

Stakeholders say the target of the Development Vision2025 of universal power access by the year 2025 might be achieved much earlier if the current pace of electrification and the speed of implementation of the ongoing numerous electricity generation projects that includes the 2115MW Julius Nyerere Hydropower project is maintained.

Surprisingly in its Corporate Strategic Plan (CSP) 2021/22 - 2025/26, Tanesco has set a target of 100 per cent electricity access for Tanzania Mainlandby June 2026. “[Total electricity coverage] will be achieved through expansion of power generation, transmission and distribution networks as well as implementation of urban and rural electrification projects,” says the acting deputy Director for Investments at TanescoEng Stephen Mandain a brief statement to The Citizen.

Power generation

Total installed power generation capacity in Tanzania is1,609.91MW. Out of all this the national grid comprises 1,573.65MW and off-grid 36.26MW, which includes 5MW from a solar power project (Solawazi) inKigoma, according to data provided by Tanesco to The Citizen. “Installed power generation capacity matches with suppressed demand and the capacity of plants availability meet maximum suppressed demand with a reserve margin of about 10 per cent,” EngMandafurther says.

In his June budget speech Dr Kalemani said electricity from natural gas took the largest share of installed capacity at 901.32MW, followed by hydroelectricity 573.70MW and 10.50MW from biomass. “Tanesco’s own power generation capacity reaches 86.57 per cent while the rest (13.43 per cent) is from Independent Power Producers (IPPs) and Small Power Producers (SPPs),” Dr Kalemani said.

Dr Kalemani added that the aim is to reach 5,000MW generation by 2025 in order to achieve 100 per cent coverage.

Power generation projects that are in the pipeline include the JuliusNyerere (2,115MW), Ruhudji (358MW) and
Rumakali (222MW). Other projects include Kinyerezi I - extension (185MW), Rusumo (80MW), Malagarasi (49MW), Mtwara (300MW) and SomangaFungu (330MW).

And yet other projects include solar power (150MW), wind power (200MW), thermal generation(200MW) andcoal power (600MW).

The current production capacity is a great leap forward from the paltry 336.80MW produced in 1987, according to the Power System Report in Tanzania. Out of the 336MW about 253.22MW was from hydro while 83.58MW was thermal.

Missed target in 60 years

Despite achievements in power supply, stakeholders say, it is important to look back and reflect on why the country has failed to achieve 100 per cent in the past 60 years, despite abundant energy and power sources that it possess.

The Zanzibar University Economics Professor Haji Semboja says Tanzania’s low level of electricity access is in tandem with its low level of development and technology. Policy and legal mechanisms have also determined the current level of electrification in the country. “Electricity is both a commercial undertaking and at the same time a catalyst to development. It is difficult for a country like Tanzania to be self-sufficient,” Dr Semboja says. He adds that regional cooperation in power supply is of utmost importance. “The government should enhance power cooperation with other country as far away as Ethiopia in order to meet the country’s power needs,” Dr Semboja says.

Dr Avit Mushi a lecturer in the Department of Electricity of the College of Engineering and Technology of the University of Dar es Salaam says one of the reasons for failure to reach 100 per cent electricity access is because of neglectingpromoting local expertise and technical capability.

Speaking to The Citizen in an interviewDr Mushi said even the dependence on a single source that has characterized power generation in the past 60 years has been because of low levels of technical capacity.

“Since independence Tanzania has faced a continuous shortage of experts in the electricity sub sector, from teachers who can train experts to experts themselves at all levels such as engineers and technicians,” Dr Mushi notes.

He added; “If you look closely at those developing countries that have achieved 100 per cent electricity access you will see that they invested heavily in training and in research institutions which increased innovation and technical capacity.”

Despite diversified power generation sources that include ample sunshine, uranium and wind Tanzania has continued to depend on hydroelectricity due to low technical capacity, he argues.

Dr Francis Mwasilu also from CoET says in addition to dependence on hydro-electricity power inadequateinvestment in power transmission is also to blame for low access.Poor transmission has also led to frequent power outages.

Dr Mwasilu says investing heavily and adequately in transmission can unlock Tanzania electricity supply issues.

“We talk about unbundling of Tanesco to allow other operators in order to increase competition, but this should be done carefully and I suggest that transmission and a good part of generationremain with Tanesco,” he tells The Citizen in an interview.

He said the government would also need to invest heavily in regulation; “Competition is good but we should understand the nature of the market. Small mistakes can lead to a heavy burden to customers,” Dr Mwasilu notes.

Time to go nuclear

Dr Mushi says it was now time for Tanzania to adopt nuclear technology in power generation, which he says is the most stable and cheapest source of power.

“India, with its big population, has adequate power supply because they use nuclear power. Only one nuclear reactor could power Dar es Salaam and probably the whole country. But we have passed the nuclear power opportunity because we did not build the technical capacity from the beginning. But now I believe the country has the expertise,” Dr Mushi notes.

What should be done?

After the failure to reach 100 per cent electricity access in the past six decades what should be done to ensure universal access in the near future?

Dr Mushi says investments in new technologies in generation, transmission, supply and use of electricity is crucial. “This is important. New technology will diversify power generation sources,” Dr Mushi notes.

Unbundling Tanesco is also important, he adds. It will reduce operation costs.“It is the same with manufacturing. We can afford manufacturing goods because manufacturers do not worry about transporting goods form their industries to customers. Transporters also do not worry about retailing the goods. So each stakeholder focuses on increasing efficiency in their area which results into cheaper goods and services,” Dr Mushi elaborates adding that if Tanesco now falls into inefficiency then it is not only generation that suffers, transmission and supply are also affected.

Dr Mwasilu says the government should put a special focus on overhauling the transmission infrastructure. “The transmission systems have a problem. If we had ring circuit arrangement in the transmission system we should have been able to avoid issues such as the Msamvu power station accident that affected the whole national grid. Fortunately they are working to establish the backbone to ensure such problems are solved,” Dr Mwasilu notes.

Dr Mwasilu says the government should also increase engagement with the academia and industries to ensure investments in power supply are conducted efficiently.

Dr Mushi says the government should also invest in research, development and innovation. This will produce innovators, engineers and technicians. “Teachers should be empowered and students should be given scholarships and full loans to enable them afford studies. The government should also invest in practical learning models such as simulations to add value to graduates coming out of higher learning institutions,” Dr Mushi adds.