What next for dozens of former Tanzanian lawmakers sidelined in CCM primaries?

Among those whose futures hang in the balance are deputy ministers Geoffrey Pinda, Exaud Kigahe, Danstan Kitandula, Jumanne Sagini, Stanslaus Nyongo, Alexander Mnyeti, Khamis Hamza Chilo, and Cosato Chumi.

Some have declared intentions to appeal, citing irregularities and vote buying during the primaries.

However, political observers contend that the appeals are unlikely to significantly alter the outcome for most of them.

Political analyst, Philemon Mtoi, says sidelined MPs will have to tread carefully in the coming weeks, as hope still remains for possible endorsement through presidential nomination or national-level selection.

“According to the CCM constitution, primaries are not final. There are precedents where individuals who lost at the constituency level were later approved by higher party organs,” Mtoi explains.

“It is likely that after the final decision is made, some will likely defect, especially those who feel their political journey has been unjustly cut short,” he added.

According to Mtoi, not all will leave the party immediately. “Some would remain quiet, hoping for presidential appointments,” he noted.

Another analyst, Said Msonga, believes some aspirants may consider switching to opposition parties to preserve their political ambitions as is the case with former Kisesa MP Luhaga Mpina, who joined ACT-Wazalendo shortly after his elimination and has since been named the party’s presidential candidate.

“Those who switch parties do so out of frustration or raw ambition, it’s a political calculation. But for those who have served in senior roles or have future prospects within CCM, staying put may be wiser,” Msonga notes.

He adds that some aspirants who were dropped early, especially from the special seats process, are likely to either go silent or lobby for appointments in government.

Still, Msonga cautions that ignoring candidates who legitimately won the primaries may cause internal rifts within the party.

“CCM must respect the choices of its grassroots members. Overruling them without clear justification may provoke backlash,” he says.

The sidelining of over 50 individuals, a mix of incumbents and hopefuls, has generated debate about CCM’s internal processes.

Many had served in the 12th Parliament or held roles within government and party structures.

With just ten presidential nomination slots available for Parliament, competition is fierce. Most of the dropped candidates now rely on the discretion of President Samia Suluhu Hassan for a political comeback, either through presidential parliamentary nominations or appointments after the elections.

Some observers argue that the primaries’ results signal a desire for renewal within the party and among voters, especially in constituencies where incumbents were perceived as inactive or disconnected from their constituents.

“Several of these MPs had lost touch with the electorate. Others were outperformed in terms of public engagement and visibility. This is the nature of politics,” Mtoi notes.

Defections not new

Defections following internal nomination losses are not without precedent.

In 2015, former Prime Minister Edward Lowassa left CCM after being blocked from contesting the presidency and joined Chadema.

He ran under the opposition coalition Ukawa.

In 2020, the late Bernard Membe joined ACT-Wazalendo after being dropped by CCM.

He ran for president under the party’s banner before ACT-Wazalendo endorsed Chadema’s Tundu Lissu.

With this year’s general election approaching, and the nomination battles heating up, all eyes are on CCM’s NEC, and on the sidelined figures weighing their next move.