What’s next after EAC, SADC resolutions on DR Congo conflict?

For decades, the DRC’s eastern region has been engulfed in violence fuelled by armed groups, foreign interference, and internal governance challenges.

The emergence of rebel groups like the M23, the Allied Democratic Forces (ADF), and other militias has led to countless deaths, mass displacements, and a worsening humanitarian crisis.

Previous peace efforts, including the Nairobi and Luanda processes, have failed due to lack of commitment, regional rivalries, and external influences.

With the withdrawal of the United Nations Stabilization Mission in the DRC (MONUSCO), armed groups have further exploited the security vacuum, intensifying the need for a comprehensive and enforceable solution.

But can the latest EAC-SADC resolutions provide a lasting peace framework?

Key resolutions: Ambitious yet challenging

The joint summit, held in Dar es Salaam, called for an immediate ceasefire, restoration of essential services, reopening of supply routes, and humanitarian assistance for affected communities.

Leaders also agreed to merge the Luanda and Nairobi peace processes to create a unified framework for conflict resolution. Furthermore, a roadmap for foreign troop withdrawal was established.

While these measures appear promising, implementation remains the biggest challenge. Arusha-based political analyst Thobias Kambale warned that history suggests these resolutions may struggle to achieve tangible results.

“Ceasefire calls have been made before, but compliance is difficult with multiple rebel factions, each with different agendas. Without strong enforcement mechanisms, this could be another well-intended but ineffective resolution,” he said.

On the other hand, a political strategist Charles Mbuke said merging the Luanda and Nairobi processes is a step in the right direction.

“Previous efforts have been fragmented, allowing armed groups to exploit diplomatic loopholes. A unified approach backed by both EAC and SADC can strengthen mediation efforts,” he added.

A Tanzanian expert based in South Africa, Dr Moses Yonas, questioned the lack of political will among key players.

He told The Citizen via WhatsAPP, “Resolutions alone won’t solve this crisis. Kinshasa and Kigali need to genuinely commit to peace. If Rwanda continues to be accused of backing M23 and DRC continues its military confrontations, these efforts will collapse like past ones.”

One of the biggest impediments to peace is the strained relationship between Rwandan President Paul Kagame and DRC President Felix Tshisekedi.

Kinshasa has long accused Kigali of supporting M23 rebels, an allegation Rwanda denies. Kagame, in turn, cites security concerns posed by rebel activities near Rwanda’s borders. This ongoing hostility has hindered diplomatic negotiations.

The latest twist in this diplomatic standoff comes from South Africa’s involvement. President Cyril Ramaphosa’s government has recently criticised Rwanda over its alleged role in destabilising eastern DRC, further complicating regional dynamics.

This tension between South Africa and Rwanda, Dr Yonas said, could impact SADC’s ability to remain neutral in the mediation process.

“Without genuine cooperation between Kigali and Kinshasa, no resolution will be sustainable,” he warned.

A political commentator, Ms Agnes Mushi, said, “Tensions between Kagame and Tshisekedi need to be addressed first before expecting any resolution to work.”

Foreign troop withdrawal and regional stability

One of the summit’s major directives is the structured withdrawal of uninvited foreign armed forces from DRC territory.

However, previous attempts at demilitarisation have faced resistance from multiple factions with vested interests in the country’s mineral-rich regions.

Defence analysts say that withdrawing auxiliary forces from the DRC will strengthen M23 and provoke the DRC army to retaliate further, leading to greater destruction.

They say that without a well-defined security transition plan, foreign troop withdrawal could worsen instability.

“If armed groups sense a security vacuum, they will escalate attacks. The roadmap must ensure the Congolese military and regional forces are prepared to fill the gap,” Ms Mushi said in an interview.

Meanwhile, foreign policy expert Patrick Mugisha from Mzumbe University warns against rushing troop withdrawal without addressing security guarantees. “The issue is not just foreign troops; it is also the lack of trust among regional actors. If the process is not handled carefully, violence could intensify,” he said.