What Tanzania opposition parties must do to make a comeback in the 2025 general election

These discussions inevitably raise the question: What must opposition parties do to reclaim their relevance and mount a credible challenge in the upcoming 2025 General Election?

One key issue identified by political analysts is the lasting impact of the opposition’s decision to boycott the 2019 local government elections.

According to the political analyst at the University of Dar es Salaam, Dr Onesmo Kyauke, the boycott was a major strategic error that disrupted the opposition’s connection with grassroots voters.

“The decision to sit out of that election weakened their engagement at the community level and gave CCM an unchallenged opportunity to consolidate its dominance in areas where opposition parties had started gaining traction,” he says.

He also notes that voters, particularly in rural areas, interpreted the opposition’s absence as a lack of commitment, leading to a loss of trust and weakening the opposition’s support base.

Dr Kyauke suggests that rebuilding grassroots networks should be a top priority for opposition parties.

“The next two years should be spent organising at the grassroots level, not just during campaign seasons but as an ongoing effort to rebuild trust and presence in these communities. They still have time to do that for the sake of their parties’ strength,” he advises.

He adds: “The opposition’s success will depend on its ability to learn from past mistakes, unify its efforts, and present a compelling vision that resonates with all Tanzanians.”

Another political analyst, Prof Makame Ali Ussi from SUZA, agrees with this assessment, pointing out that the boycott not only failed to delegitimise the electoral process as intended but also had the unintended consequence of alienating voters.

“While the boycott may have been aimed at exposing flaws in the electoral system, it ultimately left CCM with an open field to expand its reach,” he explains.

He reveals that the absence of opposition candidates meant that grassroots engagement, a critical component of political mobilisation, was monopolised by CCM, leaving the opposition with no opportunity to challenge its expansion.

“This created a vacuum that the ruling party has continued to exploit to its advantage,” he says.

Internal conflicts within opposition parties have also significantly hindered their effectiveness.

A political scientist at the University of Dodoma, Dr Paul Loisulie, believes that infighting within the opposition parties has eroded public confidence in their ability to govern effectively.

“Opposition parties need to realise that voters are not only looking for an alternative to CCM but also for a credible and united alternative,” he asserts.

He highlights the repeated public disputes among opposition leaders, which often shift from disagreements over policy or strategy to personal attacks.

“This behaviour undermines the opposition’s collective appeal and damages its credibility in the eyes of voters,” he says.

Dr Loisulie stresses that one effective strategy could be forming coalitions.

“No single opposition party can effectively challenge CCM on its own. A united front would demonstrate strength and offer a more compelling alternative to voters,” he argues.

He continues; “Collaboration among opposition parties could help consolidate resources, broaden voter bases, and offer a united challenge to CCM.”

However, he warns that this approach would require opposition leaders to set aside personal ambitions and work toward a common goal—a challenge that may be difficult but is necessary for success.

For his part, a political scientist from the University of Dar es Salaam, Dr Richard Mbunda, expands on this issue by noting the growing perception that some opposition parties are not entirely independent.

“The derogatory label of ‘CCM-B,’ often used by opposition leaders to describe rival parties, has fuelled distrust among opposition supporters,” he observes.

He adds that when opposition parties focus on accusing each other of being extensions of CCM rather than focusing on the ruling party itself, they risk alienating their voter base and weakening their collective strength.

Dr Mbunda argues that internal cohesion is critical for the opposition to regain credibility.

He suggests that opposition parties must establish strong mechanisms for resolving conflicts internally, focusing on presenting a united front.

“Resolving these disputes behind closed doors and focusing on a shared vision for Tanzania’s future is essential for the opposition to regain voter confidence,” he advises.

He says opposition parties need to refine their campaign strategies.

Dr Mbunda emphasises the importance of focusing on policy over personality in their campaigns.

“Criticising CCM is not enough; voters need to see a credible alternative that addresses their needs and aspirations,” he says.

The structural challenges faced by opposition parties are also significant.

One major issue is the oversight of the electoral process, which many critics argue is compromised by the involvement of the President’s Office-Regional Administration and Local Government (PO-RALG).

Prof Ussi points out that PO-RALG, being closely linked to the ruling party, creates a conflict of interest.

“Having an independent electoral body, such as an Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), would enhance public confidence in the process and make it more credible,” he says.

On top of that, Dr Kyauke suggests that opposition parties should lobby for legislative changes to establish an independent electoral body like INEC to oversee future elections.

“Reforms that enhance the transparency and fairness of the electoral process are crucial for restoring public trust and ensuring meaningful competition,” he says.

In addition, CCM’s extensive grassroots network, which spans rural areas across the country, provides it with a significant advantage over the opposition, whose influence is largely confined to urban areas.

Dr Kyauke observes that the opposition has yet to develop a comprehensive strategy to compete with CCM’s deep roots in rural communities.

“The opposition’s focus on urban centres, while important, limits their ability to build a truly national movement capable of challenging CCM’s dominance,” he explains.

Rural voters, who constitute the majority of the electorate, remain largely under-represented in the opposition’s outreach efforts, leaving a critical gap that CCM continues to exploit.