What to expect as CCM enters crucial week to endorse candidates for Tanzania’s General Election

Dar es Salaam. The ruling Chama Cha Mapinduzi (CCM) has entered a decisive week as the party winds up the nomination of candidates for parliamentary seats ahead of the general election slated for October 29 this year.

From Sunday, August 17, through Friday, August 22, the party’s top organs will be holding crucial meetings that will determine the final list of candidates who will fly CCM’s flag at the polls, according to the party’s timetable.

The much-anticipated climax, often referred to as the final stretch week of selections, analysts say will see the ruling party balance between respecting grassroots voices expressed through primaries and making strategic decisions aimed at ensuring electoral victory.

The Special Committee of the CCM National Executive Council (NEC) in Zanzibar was yesterday scheduled to deliberate and forward its recommendations to the party’s Central Committee (CC).

This will be followed by the NEC Secretariat on August 19, which will scrutinise the names before forwarding them to the CC.

The Central Committee will then meet on August 20 to give its verdict and pass on names to the NEC.

The climax will be on August 22, when the NEC will convene to make the final endorsements of candidates who will represent CCM on the ballot in October.

The developments are being closely watched both inside and outside the ruling party, with analysts noting that CCM’s selection process carries significant implications not only for internal party democracy but also for the overall trajectory of the upcoming elections.

Dr Richard Mbunda from the University of Dar es Salaam told The Citizen that this stage of the process reflects CCM’s long-standing tradition of combining internal democracy with centralised control.

“The week will be crucial for CCM because it is when grassroots decisions interact with strategic interests of the party. It is not only about who is popular but also about who can deliver victory in the general election while aligning with the broader interests of the party,” Dr Mbunda explained.

He added that the final selection often involves delicate balancing acts, such as ensuring regional and gender representation, appeasing influential blocs within the party, and addressing the expectations of the electorate.

While some expect some surprises in the final lists, Dr Paul Loisulie of the University of Dodoma believes there will be limited deviation from the primaries.

“I do not expect there will be much change this time. The party revised its constitution precisely to give members more power, and this means that the top organs will largely respect the outcomes of grassroots voting. There may be adjustments here and there, but the trend will be to honour the choices made by the grassroots,” Dr Loisulie said.

Prof Makame Ali Ussi from the State University of Zanzibar points out that CCM’s institutional maturity enables it to navigate high-pressure moments like this with both secrecy and composure.

“CCM is a party with a long history of managing such processes. They know how to handle the pressure quietly and effectively. Of course, there will always be minor complaints about favouritism or irregularities, but overall the process is likely to be smooth. They have enough cadres and organisational strength to deal with these moments,” Prof Ussi noted.

Dr Onesmo Kyauke from the University of Dar es Salaam anticipates that some high-profile surprises could still emerge from the final selections.

“We should expect some surprises in the final decisions because the top leadership has a clear vision of the kind of candidates it wants. History shows that CCM nominations can trigger defections by aspirants who feel unfairly eliminated,” Dr Kyauke explained.

“Sometimes that means overruling the primaries in cases where they feel the winning aspirant may not be the right fit. This has, in past elections, led to defections, especially by influential figures who feel sabotaged despite their popularity. We may see some of that again this year,” he added.

An analyst from the Open University of Tanzania, Dr Revocatus Kabobe, believes that the party’s experience in handling pressure is a decisive factor in this final week.

“CCM is highly experienced in handling big pressure during times like these but I think this time they will limit themselves from making drastic changes. The final decisions will mostly align with the primaries, although in a few cases where they have intelligence suggesting irregularities,” he said.

Dr Kabobe emphasised that while changes are possible, they are unlikely to be widespread, given the need to maintain internal unity as the elections approach.