Why Tanzania falls behind regional peers in human development ranking

The HDI is expressed as a figure ranging from 0 to 1, and countries are categorised into four groups.

Those with less than 0.550 are assigned low human development, while 0.550–0.699 is for medium human development.

The range from 0.700–0.799 is for high human development, and 0.800 or above is categorised as very high human development.

In the 2021 report, Tanzania was ranked at 167 with an HDI score of 0.549, hovering just below the threshold for medium human development.

However, the 2022 rankings, released this week, present a concerning regression, with Tanzania slipping to 167 and a reduced HDI score of 0.532.

In contrast, several neighbouring nations have made notable advancements in human development. Kenya, for instance, has climbed to 146 with an HDI score of 0.601, signalling significant improvements in health, education, and income levels.

Similarly, Congo has risen to position 149 with an HDI score of 0.593. Uganda and Rwanda have also made commendable progress, with both countries maintaining relatively stable HDI scores.

Uganda is positioned at 159 with an HDI score of 0.550, while Rwanda holds the 161 spot with an HDI score of 0.548.

In contrast, Burundi, South Sudan, and Somalia continue to grapple with low HDI scores and significant development challenges.

Burundi ranked at 187 with 0.420, South Sudan at 192nd with an HDI of 0.381, and Somalia came last at 193 with an HDI score of 0.380.

Speaking to The Citizen, research think-tank Repoa Executive Director, Dr Donald Mmari, said the countries ahead of Tanzania have made significant strides in education and ensuring children remain in school.

Also, on the metric of per capita income, it appears low in Tanzania due to the population. “Our population is growing at a very high rate,” he said. Dr Mmari's views echoed those of the World Bank, which revealed that, regardless of impressive economic growth rates, Tanzania is facing the challenge of translating it into poverty reduction due to rapid population growth.

The WB data showed that nearly 3 million Tanzanians fell into poverty during and after the Covid-19 pandemic.

In 2018, around 14 million Tanzanians were living in poverty, but by December 2023, that number had risen to 17.3 million individuals.

The WB projects that Tanzania's population will double every 23 years, potentially reaching around 140 million by 2050.

Dr Mmari said that in terms of economic recovery, developed countries have been faster due to capacity and the presence of resources.

“Our small economy countries still have a low response to disasters, so our recovery is slower compared to theirs. We are also dealing with many disasters like diseases, climate change issues, etc.; so much of our resources are used to address the challenges we face,” he said.

Commenting on the prospects, Finance and Investment Expert from the University of Dar es Salaam (UDSM), Dr Tobias Swai, said it is a positive as Tanzania has continued to invest significantly in areas that support the standard of living.

“The Tanzanian government has been consistent in investing in social services such as health and education, which is encouraging because even though we are still lagging, the situation will continue to change in the future,” he said.

Dr Swai further said: “It is also time for our Ministry of Planning to look at the factors that keep us down in the HDI and develop strategies and policies to improve our situation, as the HDI index is very important."

The HDI indices were released on March 13, 2024, in a report titled ‘Breaking the Gridlock: Reimagining Cooperation in a Polarised World’. In a general view, the report indicated that the uneven development progress is leaving the poorest behind, exacerbating inequality, and stoking political polarisation on a global scale.

UNDP Administrator, Mr Achim Steiner in New York during the launching event said: “We are also seeing in many countries across the world, a growing level of frustration, of polarisation and the emergence of populism as a response that is increasingly dividing societies, radicalising the political discourse, and essentially turning more and more people against each other within countries.”

According to the report, while nine in 10 people worldwide endorse democracy, over half of the respondents expressed support for leaders that may undermine it by bypassing fundamental rules of the democratic process.

In addition to this paradox, half of the people surveyed reported having no or limited control over their lives, and over two-thirds believed that they have little influence on their government’s decisions.

The report also highlights that economic interdependence remains high.

It points out that no region is close to self-sufficiency, as all rely on imports from other regions of 25 percent or more of at least one major type of goods and services.