Why the race to replace Samia in 2030 has already started inside CCM

Although the ruling party has not officially launched the process to identify its candidate, analysts say these early moves reflect a recurring pattern in Tanzanian politics whenever an incumbent president approaches the end of their final term.

Political observers note that the contest for influence ahead of 2030 is already beginning to emerge within party structures, where leadership positions, internal alliances, and executive clout are expected to play a crucial role in determining who secures a favourable position before the presidential nomination process begins.

University of Dar es Salaam political analyst Salbinus David says Tanzania has entered a period that political scientists describe as leadership succession politics.

“When it becomes constitutionally clear that the incumbent president will complete their final term, politicians begin to realign for the next leadership cycle,” he says.

According to Mr David, political competition often starts long before official campaigns begin because parties and individual politicians seek to build influence within their respective institutions.

“Internal CCM processes are increasingly viewed as an investment towards future national leadership. Whoever controls influential structures within the party often holds a strategic advantage during the presidential nomination,” he says.

This dynamic has made CCM one of the most closely watched parties heading into the 2030 General Election.

With President Hassan expected to finish her final constitutional term in 2030, CCM will be forced to select a new presidential candidate for the first time since the leadership transition from Jakaya Kikwete to John Magufuli in 2015.

Although senior party officials have consistently maintained that it is too early to discuss leadership succession, repeated warnings against early campaigning indicate that the leadership recognises a growing political appetite regarding the coming transition.

Earlier this year, CCM Vice Chairman (Mainland) Stephen Wasira warned members against forming early political camps, stating that such behaviour violates party foundations and jeopardises unity.

Recently, the Chairman of the CCM Parents' Wing and Member of the National Executive Committee, Mr Rajabu Maganya, urged members aspiring for the presidency to respect party discipline.

“Those seeking the presidency must not disrupt CCM. Party and national interests must come before personal ambitions,” he stated.

Prime Minister, Dr Mwigulu Nchemba, also warned politicians against directing their energies towards the next election instead of development priorities, while condemning efforts to introduce tribalism and religion into political debates.

The debate on leadership succession reached Parliament when Tunguu MP Simai Mohammed Said invoked the biblical example of ‘Judas’ while warning against what he called betrayal within the ruling party.

The statement was interpreted by some political analysts as a sign of intensifying internal competition.

Political analyst, Dr Baraka Mfinanga, says increased political activity should not be viewed as unusual because election preparations begin several years before citizens return to polling stations.

“Political parties exist to compete for state power through democratic means, making leadership competition unavoidable. However, voters also expect parties to continue discussing economic development, public services, and governance rather than focusing exclusively on internal politics,” he says.

According to him, the challenge for political parties is managing leadership ambitions while safeguarding institutional stability.

“Strong parties are not those without competition. They are those capable of managing competition without allowing it to destroy unity or undermine institutional integrity,” he says.

Dr Mfinanga notes that the coming years will test the ability of the country's political parties to manage leadership transitions through democratic processes rather than relying on personal loyalties.

He adds that while succession politics is inevitable, parties must ensure internal competition does not derail agendas concerning citizens, including economic development, public services, and governance.

Mr David also warns that early succession battles risk diverting party attention away from broader political responsibilities.

“When leadership succession debates start too early, parties, especially CCM, can expend excessive energy managing internal disputes rather than formulating alternative policies or strengthening democratic institutions. Healthy competition is expected, but it must not overshadow governance issues,” he says.

A political analyst from the State University of Zanzibar, Prof Ali Makame Ussi, says all major parties face operational challenges when preparing for leadership transitions.

“It is entirely normal for politicians to think about the future. Every political party must groom future leaders. Challenges arise when succession politics begins to erode institutional discipline or create permanent factions,” he says.

He adds that opposition parties are also making internal adjustments as they prepare for the next political cycle.

“No party is immune to this situation. Whether it is the ruling party or the opposition, every institution approaching a major leadership transition must balance legitimate political ambitions with institutional stability,” he says.

For Prof Ussi, leadership competition itself is not the problem. He says the real test lies in the ability of parties to manage leadership changes through transparent systems while respecting their internal rules.

“Strong institutions are tested during leadership transitions. If parties faithfully adhere to their constitutions and internal procedures, leadership competition can strengthen democracy rather than weaken it,” he says.