The Biden factor: The impossible dichotomy in China-US relations

A state of uncertainty prevails among the majority of Chinese and American people regarding the future of China-US relations amid Joe Biden’s presidential win in the 2020 US elections.

While some circles express hopes for improved relations following the defeat of Donald Trump who soured the relations between the two countries, others predict the potential for a strong but calm approach exploiting the traditional areas – including human rights and environmental pollution, among others – that the US has used for decades to tarnish the image of China.

Richard Black, former US Republican State Senator for Virginia, is optimistic that the ongoing tensions would defuse after Biden assumes power, yet others remain sceptical regarding the possibility of any significant shift to occur in China-US relations.

More specifically, the economic and diplomatic tensions characterizing China-US relations today, which are sometimes exaggerated and dubbed ‘cold war’, have produced concerns among the people in the two countries and globally, including in Tanzania, for the fear of ruined global trade, slackened world economy and deteriorated external environment for development given the crucial role China and the US play globally.

Should the war ever happen, it may take a more economic shape than the traditional weaponry. And should this be the case, then, the so-called Sino-American Cold War may already be happening. It may well have been normalized in our highly globalized world, prompting a worldwide campaign to oppose it.

Yet, no matter how normal we regard such tensions to be especially between a rising power coming to challenge the incumbent, and how unlikely a cold war could be in our interdependent world, such rhetoric will ultimately affect the thinking of ordinary people on China-US relations, thus requiring much of the work to focus on shaping a positive view at the grassroots no matter who sits at the US presidency.

It should be remembered that several years ago, Chinese President Xi Jinping proposed ‘a new type of major-country relations between China and the US’, which features mutual respect, win-win cooperation and the absence of conflicts and confrontation.

The cold-war rhetoric leans toward making China look bad among Americans than vice-versa, and amid all this, China has rather opted for a friendly approach than continuously bumping heads with the United States. With the exception of the closing of the US Consulate in Chengdu following the same act by the US in Texas, in most cases China has not reciprocated US provocation.

Over the years, the United States has invested in some war-some rhetoric and actions targeting China, its perceived global economic rival currently challenging the decades-long hegemonic status the world power has enjoyed since its ascendancy during the global war era.

However, as Robert Manning, a senior expert on US’ China strategy, recently observed in his column in the Foreign Policy journal, amid its waning influence and the rise of China, in all its efforts in the form of tariffs, technological bans and badmouthing “… the United States has done far more whining about China than competing with it.” This is contrary to what the US used to be in its heydays when it would put the efforts to launch satellites to the moon, among other instances, as a way of showing the might of capitalism and America’s unmatched capabilities.

Nevertheless, times have changed and we cannot expect any country to maintain the same status or use the same tactics. This makes neither China’s economic ascendancy nor the US fading popularity an anomaly.

Although the outgoing Donald Trump employed some harder and perhaps polemical tactics against China, his controversial view about the rising global economic power may have rather been leading America to further destruction than making it accrue any significant gains.

With Mr Biden’s presidency, some senior US-China policy experts, including Kurt Campbell and Jake Sullivan, hold the hope for competition with coexistence rather than confrontation with catastrophe. Yet, others like Alex Doherty warn that Biden could act even tougher on China using the pretexts of human rights abuse, environmental pollution and other topical issues as they would unfold.

It is worth noting that amid the fears over the potential Sino-American cold war, Biden’s presidency may not instantly alter US policies, interests and attitude. It takes time, and not everything that a president wants would happen as wished irrespective of one’s status.

Therefore, while the Trump factor may have played a role in bolstering the anti-China sentiments among Americans, any major change of attitude toward China among US citizens depends largely on influencing them with friendly bottom-up policies fostering mutual respect and cooperation at the state and the individual levels than simply reversing the actions of Mr Biden’s predecessor.