CCM: A party competing against itself to 2025 polls

The 2025 general election is three years and some change away but that has never stopped many within and without one of Africa’s longest ruling parties to constantly look for possible threats to its continued dominance, especially in the multiparty era. The serious threats have almost always been from within or those exported to opposition parties.

It could be the Union, it could be a relatively unknown candidate, it could be factionalism, it could be money (corruption), it could be ‘political exiles’, it could be ‘returnees’, it could be a rejuvenated opposition, the list is endless. In the latest round of possible threats, some commentators have pointed to ministers who harbour presidential ambitions as being unhelpful to the incumbent president and their party in general. Others, considering how the sixth phase came into power after the passing of Dr John Pombe Magufuli who led the fifth phase government.

These commentators argue that there is a group of ‘conservatives’ within CCM who are disrupting the good work done by the incumbent by refusing to accept that things have changed and the fifth phase is no more. They point to a long list of alleged failures of the sixth phase government put forward by these ‘conservatives’ in their various online forums or interviews they give. As a preventive solution, they offer dealing with them early on to neutralize the possible potency of their ongoing onslaught on the current government. No definitive explanations are given on how these can be dealt with definitively but the available options would be expelling them or coopting them. Given how CCM operates, expelling them at a time of transition where many forces are pulling towards different directions will be the least favourable even though the majority of them will not pose any serious political threat outside CCM. These commentators see a real and present danger that these ‘conservatives’ might lead to CCM being swept out of power in 2025 general election!

If the past is any guide, CCM has always struggled to sell the incumbent in a general election where the incumbent is running for a second term in office regardless of whether that incumbent has the support of the majority power brokers and deal makers within their party or even some support from the general public. This has always been a challenge regardless of the state of the opposition at a given material time.

These difficulties in selling an incumbent are a product of many factors ranging from their record in office for the past five years to political turbulence within their own party. Some incumbents of the past were so bogged down by allegations of mega corruption scandals, infighting within the government to them losing their political shine that their winning margins fell sharply and the enthusiasm of the electorate was very low.

From now to 2025 is an eternity in political terms, however, as has been the case in the past, CCM’s serious threats to its continued rule will come from within, especially its record in these five years from 2020 to 2025. The so-called ‘conservatives’ have little to do with this regardless of their political motives. CCM’s electoral victory in the 2020 general election might come to be a bitter one when it comes to them delivering on the many promises they made.

There are many projects which are now falling behind of completion schedules. There are many who are growing increasingly skeptical of the current government’s agenda as they can hardly pinpoint the priorities even though the woman in charge has laid them out several times. The debates in parliament which have been so bitter and divisive at times involving members from the same party are also indicative of the mounting problems from within not without.

Opposition parties are in disarray and the one party that is still relatively in a better political shape is in a political marriage with the ruling party in Zanzibar but its influence on the Mainland is waning. The other dominant opposition party has some of its leaders dealing with protracted legal battles and others who are in self-imposed exile. Even with all these disadvantages, the opposition need not fret too much about 2025.

The ruling party is going through an identity crisis where the sixth phase government does not feel fully in charge without invoking the fifth phase government. It is a balancing act which has delivered mixed results depending on where or how one feels about the two successive presidents.

2025 was going to be problematic for CCM regardless of who is in charge.

The transition and feelings of ‘betrayal’ by some surely will not help matters. Of the few things which are clear from all this is that when the end comes for the long ruling party, it would be CCM that brings down CCM. After all, the party has been competing against itself for so long now.