Hello

Your subscription is almost coming to an end. Don’t miss out on the great content on Nation.Africa

Ready to continue your informative journey with us?

Hello

Your premium access has ended, but the best of Nation.Africa is still within reach. Renew now to unlock exclusive stories and in-depth features.

Reclaim your full access. Click below to renew.

Lessons from Kenya’s 2022 General Election

Supporters of William Ruto, Kenya’s President elect, celebrate in Eldoret on August 15, 2022. The head of Kenya’s election body on August 15, 2022 declared the Deputy President the winner of the country’s close-fought presidential election. PHOTO | AFP

What you need to know:

  • The real battle will be at the Supreme Court of Kenya.

The first two columns of Fly on the Wall this month told you about Tanzania and its place in the world of diplomacy.

Little did yours truly imagine that following in the footsteps of Tanzania’s enduring diplomat number one, the late Mwalimu Julius Kambarage Nyerere, and former Organisation of African Unity secretary-general Salim Ahmed Salim, President Samia Suluhu Hassan would come out of the just concluded Kenyan General Election smelling like a rose.

President Yoweri Museveni of Uganda may relish his being called a revolutionary and sometimes, flatters himself as a pseudo-intellectual, but diplomacy has never and will never be his strongest point. Boom was his rapid fire and ebullient congratulations to William Samoei Ruto, who was, amidst controversy in Kenya’s Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC), named as Kenya’s President-elect.

Our beautiful Kiswahili language has an age old adage, weka akiba ya maneno (use your words conservatively). I will bet you my bottom dollar that in her message President Hassan tactfully and diplomatically avoided congratulating Ruto but still mentioned his being named President-elect. Preceding that statement, was the congratulations to the people of Kenya, whom she endearingly called brothers and sisters, for holding a peaceful election.

Not too dissimilar from President Hassan was the message from the US Embassy in Nairobi, which similarly avoided in whole mentioning Ruto but congratulated instead, the Kenyan people for conducting a peaceful general election.

We can say President Samia has gotten a diplomatic comeuppance on President Museveni on this matter for they say in diplomacy, being “economical with hears cannot give you indigestion”. When historians come to judge, they will note how President Samia scored a straight A on this specific diplomatic dance floor.

Allow me to explain again. The new Kenyan constitution 2010 allows for 3 possible outcomes now that the Azimio Coalition of Raila Odinga, the doyen of Kenyan politics, are taking their case to the Supreme Court of Kenya as, the mere split of the IEBC Commissioners, and tenets of good governance deserves.

First, Azimio can pray for a court ordered audit of the process also known as verification so that the independent audit determines which side of the split commission is guilty of falsehood. The second option is a prayer for the election to be nulled and a re-run be held in 90 days by the fahali wawili (two bulls) front-runners.

The last option which is the one Ruto will have in his replying affidavit should be for the courts to find the 2 prayers frivolous and to demand that his “win” and announcement by National Returning Officer Wafula Chebukati be upheld.

Anyone, diplomatic circles and heads of state alike, would know that Raila was not going to take this “loss,” lying down. If they knew that, they would be hesitant to throw their lots with a President elect whose win has yet to go through the tanuri la moto (hot embers) that is SCORK (Supreme Court of Kenya).

The observers led by Retired President Jakaya Kikwete have had their say but as usual miss the point as they focus on counting the voters and seeing no fires on ques. The real battle will be at SCORK which Dr kikwete advised the “loser” to take to as a cause of last resort not to mention …wink… wink …that it is a case of blind man advising, the one eyed man considering, the United Republic of Tanzania does not have a clause allowing Presidential elections to be litigated in court. Do as I say not as I do, Dr Kikwete, right?

Tanzania, as a consequence of President Hassan’s tentative messaging came out diplomatically safe because when the SCORK process is completed, there will be more than enough time to congratulate whoever it may be. For arguments sake, if prayer No 1 is granted SCORK may well declare Raila the winner. Prayer Number 2 may see a re-run and who knows how the charade will be repeated.

Raila will go down in African history as the man who defied all manner of straight jacketed descriptions, straddled both Tanganyika and the United Republic of Tanzania’s history, escaped Daniel arap Moi’s authoritarianism through Uganda and went on to define electoral justice for Kenya, East Africa, Africa and the world and President Hassan earned the United Republic of Tanzania accolades in that historical trajectory.