Of Tanzania’s opposition parties and their different realities

The 2020 general election, as expected threw chaos among opposition parties. This year’s general election, in many ways was a concluding chapter to the 2015 general election which left some opposition parties in disarray despite their electoral gains. 2020 has proved to be a disaster for opposition parties in terms of the outcome of the election as well as their united front when it comes to their opposition against CCM, the long ruling party and one of Africa’s most successful political parties as far as longevity in power is concerned.

As the 2020 election results left no doubt that the opposition had suffered their worst electoral defeat since the return of multipartism, there were statements which showed a united front against what they perceived to be a rigged outcome, that the will of the people was not reflected in the results of the general election.

However, as the fog of election campaigns gave way to clarity of the political reality, opposition parties realized that they were confronted with different choices if they were to survive and maintain their political relevancy to 2025. Inevitably, this meant that there would be friction among erstwhile allies, and there was little chance of political divides among some of these opposition parties to be bridged.

For Chadema, going into the 2020 general election, there was a real chance of them being dethroned from their leading opposition party by ACT Wazalendo, courtesy of some clever political maneuvers struck between ACT Wazalendo’s leader, Zitto Kabwe and Maalim Seif Sharif Hamad and his allies who had left the Civic United Front (CUF). Chadema was the destination of choice for all those who decamped from CCM in 2015 and was the most hit political party when the wind changed direction with these political migrant birds returning to their political home.

There was also Tundu Lissu’s assassination attempt. Add what some of its leaders and supporters who see concerted efforts by state institutions to weaken their party through dropping the proverbial cat among pigeons. To them, there would be no deal with the government or accepting of the election outcome because they do not work in their favor.

ACT Wazalendo on the other hand ended up with very different possibility. While the results in Zanzibar were far worse than expected, it still performed better than any other opposition party, giving it a chance of being part of the government. While its leaders had the same argument like Chadema’s leaders, of them being robbed their electoral victory, the dynamics of Zanzibar’s politics came into play and decision makers saw that their Zanzibar constituency and their interests were far more important than their fledgling, mercurial political alliance with Chadema.

CUF on the other hand was a surprise survivor of the 2020 general election. A party headed for political oblivion, performed better than expected. Was this an outcome of its participation in by-elections and other polls which were boycotted by other political parties? Or could it be the last vestiges of political support it had enjoyed for a quarter of a century? With a waning political influence in Zanzibar and clusters of support on the Mainland, it is still a party in decline. CUF had already burnt a lot of bridges with other political parties going into the 2020 general election and is seen as a “pariah” by some of the opposition parties. It was a no brainer that CUF would not opt to boycott parliament or other political posts they had won during the 2020 general election because that does not work for them and will not help in arresting the decline of their party.

While leading opposition parties have condemned the manner in which the 2020 general election was conducted and its outcome, their realities are such that each party has responded depending on where they stand or want to stand on the political stage.

Each political party dances to a tune they believe will keep them politically relevant one that will last them to another general election. Do not be surprised should another “strange” political alliance emerge out of the political woodworks.

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Erick Mwakibete is a socio-political commentator and analyst based in Dar es Salaam